Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDMX 011741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EVEN AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A FEW MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL TURN TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THAN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
MORNING LOWS AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION...EXPECT THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
EXCEED YESTERDAY BY TWO OR THREE DEGREES AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST APPROPRIATELY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

ONE MORE DRY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST ALREADY ON TUESDAY THOUGH AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING
EAST...WILL BRING A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STABLE CONDITIONS
FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL END WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS THE
MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH
BROAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO IOWA. THIS FLOW WILL HAVE
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AND COMBINED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE GENERALLY WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MULTICELLS THE PRIMARY
STORM MODE. INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH WITH SFC BASED CAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER THREAT WILL
BECOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75
INCHES ALONG WITH GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CU FIELD IN PLACE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK TO
BUILD INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...AND IMPACT ALL TAF SITES. DECK
TO BE MAINLY HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR AND LIFT INTO A CU DECK TUESDAY.
LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND PICK UP SOME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.