Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 262143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND INTO SRN WI BY 12Z
SATURDAY. INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION DEEPENING. INITIALLY LITTLE
ICE INTRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY
DRY...SO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AREAS NORTH
OF HWY 30 AND WEST OF I-35 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING THE
LIGHT FZDZ PRIOR TO A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. SOUNDINGS QUICKLY SATURATE
THE MID LEVELS BY MID EVENING IN THE AREA NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL CWA
WHERE FZDZ WAS MORE LIKELY ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW AT THIS TIME. AS THE WAVE EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD...THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED ALOFT BY LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME BANDING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SNOWFALL. HIGH SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LIFT
NEVER REALLY LINES UP WELL WITH THE DGZ...SO HAVE KEPT RATIOS IN THE
10 TO 12 TO 1 RANGE WITH A BIT HIGHER RATIOS POSSIBLE AS THE SNOW IS
TAPERING OFF AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. CROSS-SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THAT AREA. HI-RES RUNS HINTING AT SOME SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP
IN THAT AREA AS WELL...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN TOO.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE KEPT TOTALS SIMILAR WITH WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHWEST HALF EXPECTED TO SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW. WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY A FEW COUNTIES ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE ADVISORY FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 2-3
INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR THE FZDZ EARLY ON. OTHERWISE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE MN
BORDER.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF SATURDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH HOWEVER A LACK OF ICE
INTRODUCTION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 ANGLING UP TO JUST SOUTH OF
WATERLOO. THEREFORE...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH OF THIS REGION
MAY SWITCH TO FZDZ/DZ PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON
WITH THE AFTERNOON DRY. WARM ADVECTION WILL SET BACK INTO TO IOWA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEASONAL THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE ENTERING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE SUNDAY DRY HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
IOWA. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. COLDER AIR WILL
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS
BELOW ZERO FORECAST OVER NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL
EXPAND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER
SYSTEM SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL DISLODGE THE CUT OFF
LOW AND BEGIN TO SEND IT EAST TOWARD FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE MIDWEST JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FZDZ/DZ IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF MORE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOTM THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED AT KMCW SO HAVE
KEPT VSBY DOWN THERE THE LONGEST. SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES BY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHTER
SNOW POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CRAWFORD-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WINNEBAGO.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS


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