Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 261726
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1226 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM HAVE DEPARTED OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER IOWA. THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NEARBY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY WITH FORCING INCREASING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WEST
BY LATE MORNING AND THICKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I35. AT THIS
POINT...SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACRS THE WEST AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME VIRGA AND AT MOST...SOME
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ALTHOUGH THE BEST THREAT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL ADVECTION IS GENERALLY NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY COOL TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY IF NOT
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS IOWA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH DOMINATING WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CANNOT
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST FOR VERY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH VERY QUICKLY AS HIGH
PUSHES IN AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGH WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WEAK WAA RETURNS FRIDAY HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COOLER AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW PUSHES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF WAVE...THOUGH GFS IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF WAVE. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION MENTION
ALL SNOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD SATURATION THOUGH COLUMN
NOTED IN SOUNDINGS. WILL BE A QUICK CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
THEREFORE SNOW TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

AS HIGH PUSHES EAST RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY WITH STRONGER WAA
RETURNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DROPPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH IOWA SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO LOOSE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM AND ARE NOW SUFFICIENTLY DIFFERENT TO
WEAKEN CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. GFS IS
MUCH FASTER THAN GEM/ECMWF WHICH BRING BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN FASTER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF SOLUTIONS...WITH BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IF PRECIPITATION HAS ARRIVED BY THEN.

BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINDER OF PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE PLEASANT
WITH WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE TUESDAY AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH END OF PERIOD...GENERALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME BRIEF STINTS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AT
FOD AND DSM WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS NE/MO.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK


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