Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 022322
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WAVE PUSHING SOUTH ALONG MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MAIN CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA GIVEN ONGOING PRECIPITATION TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN IS FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS
EXPECT...HELPING TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER WEST WITH DRY
AIR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. SYSTEMS WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN IOWA...CONTINUING
TO HELP KEEP PRECIP OUT OF CWA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS AFTER
06Z...THOUGH THIS MAY BE TOO SOON WITH WAVE CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH
FROM DAKOTAS. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL GIVEN LACK OF WARMING WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS UP
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY ACROSS IOWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

GENERALLY BENIGN FORECAST WITH A FEW -SHRA THIS EVENING SOUTH TAF
SITES PRIOR TO 02Z. HIGH BUILDING ACROSS REGION OVER NEXT 36 HOURS
SHOULD FORCE PATTERN TO FAVOR SYSTEMS REMAINING WEST/SOUTH THROUGH
END OF PERIOD. BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SKC OR
FEW045 AFT 15Z SAT MOST AREAS. WINDS NIL AND UNDER 5 KTS MOST OF
PERIOD. BR NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM BUT WILL EVALUATE FOR
10-13Z EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE FU FROM CANADA HAS NOT BEEN AN
ISSUE THE PAST 12-24 HOUR WITH RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SOME HINT
THAT THICKER SMOKE ALOFT MAY DRIFT SOUTH ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
IMPACT VISIBILITY ALOFT. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...REV


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