Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 232349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
649 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Warm front currently over southern Nebraska stretches through far
southwest Iowa and northern Missouri and will slowly move farther
into Iowa late this afternoon and tonight. This will help to keep
overnight lows relatively mild with low 40s in the north to middle
50s in the south. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
form as air ascends the warm front, primarily focused over northwest
Iowa. By Friday morning, showers will be fairly widespread over
northern Iowa as low pressure moves from far southeast Colorado to
northwest Oklahoma. Forecast soundings and cross sections at KMCW
indicate very saturated low levels from early morning into at least
midday Friday. Ahead of the low, a stream of moisture from eastern
Texas will move into south central Iowa. Coupled with instability of
500 to 1000 J/kg, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
over southern Iowa. Temperatures will not rise much where the rain
persists and have kept highs several degrees higher than overnight |

.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Upper low expected to have finally pushed into central MO by early
Saturday, with it continuing to slowly meander through the central
portion of the country only moving into central IL by Sunday
morning. Therefore lingering precipitation chances are expected for
the weekend as the upper low is in the vicinity with lobes of wrap-
around moisture/precip expected to move through. Went cooler than
guidance grids suggested as clouds/precip/weak caa will help limit
any warming. A second system still expected to eject from the
southwest US across the region taking a similar track as the first
system Monday bringing additional chances for rainfall to the state.
This system will finally push the first system eastward, allowing
for the exit of both systems by Tuesday. Upper level ridging then
builds in for late Tuesday/Wednesday with another large upper level
trough digging across the southwestern US. This system is expected
to eject out into the region toward late week allowing the active
pattern to continue bringing additional rainfall chances to end next

Overall precipitation amounts for lingering precipitation Saturday
should be lighter generally around a tenth of an inch to a quarter
of an inch, however with the widespread rainfall expected prior
Saturday still expect some responses on local rivers. Majority of
river ensemble forecasts currently pushing a few sites toward
action/minor flood stage. Therefore will continue to monitor qpf
amounts for possible river flooding. With the additional widespread
rainfall chances Monday and again late in the week, will have to
monitor flood threats through much of the upcoming week. With the
general trend in southwest flow aloft/upper level ridging pattern,
no pushes of colder air expected through the period. Therefore
expect mainly above average temperatures through next week.


.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Front will set up just north of the border overnight with a band
of showers across northern Iowa toninght in vicinity of the front.
Strong low level non convective wind shear is also likely
overnight with strong low level jet across the state. Ceilings
will mainly be VFR overnight but as front sags southward across
the state on Friday, ceilings will become MVFR to IFR in northern
to central Iowa during the day. There will also be widespread
shower activity during the day as well.





SHORT TERM...Ansorge
LONG TERM...Beerends
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