Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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189
FXUS63 KDMX 100549
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1149 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

LITTLE CHANGE FOR EVENING UPDATE OUTSIDE OF TEMP TWEAKS. RAISED
MINS SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS AND WIND...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE SKIES
ARE ALREADY MOSTLY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WED SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WEST. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
RUC FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TIMING OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGING IN CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH WINDOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW ZERO...EVEN WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. MAY SEE SEE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND
ACROSS THE WEST BUT TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER TO ENTER THE WEST
LOOKS MORE LIKELY BY 09Z.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW EVERY 36-48 HRS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FLOW WILL FINALLY BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HUDSON BAY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS ALLOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (POSSIBLY MUCH
WARMER) TOWARDS NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE 7-10 DAY
RANGE.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND
ONE HALF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH ABOVE CLIMO SNOW RATIOS
A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE FORCING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH
EXPECTED. FORTUNATELY THE WIND DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. BREEZIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS IN REGARDS TO CAUSING
SNOW COVERED ROADS BUT CERTAINLY NOT A HEADLINE CRITERIA EVENT.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION FLOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN THE TWO
PREDECESSORS...THEREFORE MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW. THE TRANSITION TO SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MONDAY WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...10/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT 06Z WITH LOW END VFR CIGS SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS WRN IA. ERN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR /KMCW/KALO/KOTM/
BUT OTHER SITES /KFOD/KDSM/ WILL LIKELY SEE IFR/MVFR REDUCTIONS
DUE TO VSBYS AND/OR CIGS IN SNOW INTO MIDDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. KFOD/KDSM ARE ON THE
ERN EDGE OF THE SNOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IFR/MVFR IS NOT
GREAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL



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