Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 162326
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
526 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Winds have begun to diminish across the forecast area as the sfc pres
gradient relaxes and the sfc ridge axis shifts eastward into the
state tonight. A few low clouds still around, should continue to
diminish through the night, with mainly clear skies by late tonight
into Wednesday. Winds to begin to back around to the southwest late
tonight into Wednesday which will set up return flow and begin to
usher in warmer air. Temps will drop fairly quickly this evening
with the mostly clear skies, but should then level off or even warm
some into early Wednesday as the winds back around and warmer air
moves into the state. Highs Wednesday will return to somewhat more
seasonal values into the low to mid 20s across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Upper ridging to be in place across the western/central portions of
the US for late this week with mainly westerly to northwesterly flow
pattern across region. WAA in place across the state, with a weak
upper shortwave trough to drop southeastward through Minnesota and
into the Great Lakes region Thursday. This may bring some scattered
high clouds to the state, but otherwise the warming trend will
continue with dry conditions expected into Friday. Thermal ridge to
build into the northern Plains and Iowa Friday into the weekend as a
large upper trough moves ashore over the western US. H85 temps climb
to around +12C by the end of the week, with southwest flow in the
lower levels and southerly flow at the surface. Should see decent
warming with temperatures pushing above the seasonal averages by
Friday into the weekend with highs into the 40s Friday.

Upper ridging to flatten out into the weekend as the upper
trough moves east across the Rockies. A piece of the western US
trough to eject eastward through the central US this weekend
strengthen as it moves across the plains and into the state toward
Sunday. All extended range models coming into better agreement on
this system with the sfc low lifting through northern MO and
eastern Iowa, and with the upper trough following a similar path
across the state from late Sunday into early Monday. This system
currently expected to spread precipitation chances across the
state mainly Sunday into early Monday. Initially much of the
precip may start as rain at this time especially in the
central/southern forecast area. Better chances for snow into the
northern areas, with rain changing over to snow by Sunday night.
Many details surrounding this weather system to likely change over
the week, regarding precip types, amounts, track of the storm.
Always check the forecast for the latest information. Some chances
for some moderate rainfall currently and if that would occur
could lead to some run off issues with the rain falling over
frozen ground. Will continue to monitor this system through the
week, and could see some travel impacts across portions of the
region for the latter portion of the weekend into early Monday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A few patches of MVFR ceilings around FL011-014 will dissipate
over the next couple hours, after which only VFR conditions are
anticipated for the remainder of the TAF period. Light northwest
winds will turn to southwest overnight, then pick up a bit during
the day on Wednesday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Lee


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