Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 192052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
352 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 352 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Thunderstorms over South Dakota early today moved southeastward
into southern Minnesota this afternoon and attained an eastward
trajectory while producing severe wind gusts. These storms have
started to take a little more east-southeast turn recently as it
follows the warm front from near the southwest Minnesota/northwest
Iowa border and stretches back to north of Waterloo. Have also
noted some failed attempts at convective initiation with orphan
anvils per GOES-16 imagery in the last hour or so between Carroll
and Des Moines. This is likely due to very warm 700mb temperatures
around 14C. Otherwise, as the current storms over southern
Minnesota move east-southeast, question remains on redevelopment
later today and tonight. Best opportunity appears to be along
boundary, with thunderstorm development near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. Expect additional storms to be able to
form near the boundary this evening, but will be limited by warm
temperatures aloft. However, development may become a bit more
numerous as LLJ intensifies to 35 to 40 knots.

Storms will be mostly east of the area by Thursday morning and the
boundary will shift southward to south of the Highway 20
corridor. This will help to continue to focus the heat over the
southern half or so of central Iowa tomorrow. Challenge continues
to be dewpoints. With the dry conditions that have been occurring
with D0 and D1 drought over parts of the southwestern half of the
state, don`t have as much moisture available to evapotranspirate.
Have seen observations this Wednesday afternoon of dewpoints
mixing out into the middle 60s. This has kept heat indices less
than anticipated. However, the tradeoff can be higher temperatures
and the net result is similar heat indices. Will maintain
headlines as is as Thursday and Friday are expected be the highest
temperatures days of the week.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
Issued at 352 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The aforementioned boundary will begin to lift northward Thursday
night into Friday. Expect most of the thunderstorm development to
hold off until Thursday night as a shortwave trough approaches from
the west and LLJ increases with the focus for the storms mainly over
northern Iowa. Storms with possible severe weather will be possible
into Friday as the shortwave trough moves along the Iowa and
Minnesota border. A stronger shortwave moving across southern
Manitoba and Ontario will slowly push a cold front through the state
on Saturday. However, rainfall looks quite limited despite the
front. This is due to warm air aloft with 700mb temperatures of 11-
13C persisting that will keep the atmosphere mostly capped while the
cooler air will be shallow. Depending on the speed of the front,
future amendments to the heat headlines may need to be considered.

Cooler air will continue to filter in on Sunday with seasonable
temperatures lasting into early next week as high pressure moves
through the western Great Lakes. As the high moves away, return flow
will bring chances for storms back into the state.


.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Main focus is on thunderstorm chances at KMCW with complex of
thunderstorms moving southeastward through SE SD likely to move
toward KMCW by mid afternoon. Highlighted potential timing with a
VCTS and will refine as storm track becomes more apparent. High
winds and hail potential with the complex of storms. Could see MVFR
CIGs at KMCW with the storm potential and low level CU field
developing currently as well. Otherwise overall threat of
thunderstorms limited at the TAF sites through the period, with
southerly winds becoming more light and variable to southwesterly
into Thursday.


Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ033>035-044>050-

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ070>075-



SHORT TERM...Ansorge
LONG TERM...Ansorge
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