Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 230944
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS.
A SERIES WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS OVER THE NXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME WEAK 700-500MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS CLIPPER...BUT
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB TO THE SURFACE WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THIS LAYER TO REACH THE
GROUND. LOWERED POPS AND HAVE ONLY SPRINKLES MENTIONED WITH THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE 23.03Z HOPWRF AND LATEST
HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP/REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN IOWA.

DECENT WAA AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH TODAY AND WENT WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH. THE RUC13 HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE
ON THE MAX TEMPS TREND TODAY AND LEANED TOWARDS THE 23.07Z RUN. THE
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS THE CAVEAT...THE
QUESTION REMAINS IF CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE IN QUICK ENOUGH TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN. LEANED TOWARD THE WAA AND ENOUGH SUNSHINE EARLY ON IN
THE DAY TO PUT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S...AND THUS TWEAKED UP MAX
TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NWRN MN INTO CO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREAS TODAY. SWLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE STATE TODAY.
THE COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCY
WITH THE TRACK...HOW FAR SOUTHWEST...ON IT. THE ECMWF IS AMONG THE
FARTHEST WEST...BUT EVEN SO THE TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST THAT MUCH OF IA WILL BE IN THE RAIN AREA...OR REMAIN
DRY WITH ANY FROZEN PRECIP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONG PUSH OF
WARM AIR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WENT WELL ABOVE MOS
FOR HIGHS ON WED. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN WILL BEGIN. THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE WEST
AND ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

STRATUS DECK HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP
FRIDAY...AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY. A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
LOW STRATUS DECK TO MOVE IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH SO HAVE GONE
WITH A MENTION OF LOW MVFR.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JAN 15
AVIATION...BEERENDS


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