Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 242133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SNOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. THE ECMWF/SREF/CANADIAN HAVE BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE SNOW BAND ORIENTATION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN
LINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLEND AND THUS LEANED TOWARD THE
SREF/ECMWF.

AREA OF STRONG AND DEEP FORCING PUSHES INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IOWA PAST 09Z WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY TRANSITIONS SOUTH AND
EAST BY 12Z TOWARDS THE FOD AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS QUICKLY BECOME
DEEPLY SATURATED AT SLB TO FOD TO FRM B/T 09-12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
BETTER FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER LOOKS TO BE AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD SNOWING HARD ENOUGH TO OVER THE DRY LAYER B/T
900-800MB. INCREASED POPS OVER THE WEST NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z TO
CATEGORICAL AND BUMPED UP QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGES OF POCAHONTAS TO EMMET COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ WILL MAKE FOR AN EFFICIENT SYSTEM
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
UPGRADED MUCH OF THE WATCH OT A WARNING AND WENT WITH AN ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. A LOW END WARNING WITH NO REAL BLOWING TO
SPEAK OF. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE AREA
LIKELY...CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE COBB RATIOS INCREASING TO NEAR
20 TO 1 AVERAGE. USED ABOUT A 17 TO 1 WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL
WAIT FOR ADJUSTMENTS...THOUGH FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THE WARNING.

COLD WILL SETTLE BACK IN WITH WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN TOWARD FRI AND SAT MORNING. PERIODIC WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE ARE...BUT THINKING AT THIS TIME IS
THAT THESE WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SOME STRONG CAA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF STINTS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LEFT OUT
MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. OTHER ISSUE IN INCOMING
SNOW WEDNESDAY AND INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAFS SITES EXCEPT OTM.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
AUDUBON-CASS-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-
WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-DALLAS-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DECATUR-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK


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