Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 282142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
342 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Confidence High...Upper level low pulling northeast with upper level
low rotating back to the southeast with time through tomorrow.
Initially clearing skies will give to increasing clouds and brisk
westerly winds Tuesday as the upper level low approaches the region.
Temperatures overnight will be in the 30s with highs Tuesday
reaching the lower to mid 40s once again north and in the upper
40s to lower 50s in the south. Clouds will keep readings cooler
over the north.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Monday/
Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Confidence Medium...Clouds and periods of precipitation will move
over the region through at least Thursday morning...mainly along and
north of Interstate 80. Though light snow will be possible from time
to time over the north...only light accumulations are expected as
the upper level low pulls east.  A second push of cold air will
arrive Thursday as another cold front drives southeast from the
upper level low.  This will drop lows/highs again by Friday to the
30s for highs and 20s for lows.


Saturday Night through Monday...

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Confidence Medium...Clouds and
periods of precipitation will move over the region through at
least Thursday morning...mainly along and north of Interstate 80.
Though light snow will be possible from time to time over the
north...only light accumulations are expected as the upper level
low pulls east. A second push of cold air will arrive Thursday as
another cold front drives southeast from the upper level low. This
will drop lows/highs again by Friday to the 30s for highs and 20s
for lows.

Saturday Night through Monday...Confidence Low...The large scale
pattern remains quite active. Both the Euro and GFS have been
having difficulty resolving the systems moving through the fast
flow later this week and into the weekend. The Euro shows a weak
northern stream wave and more potent southern stream wave trying
to phase over the southern Mississippi River Valley by Saturday
afternoon/evening. The GFS is keeping the waves separate for now
with little amplification...even to the east of the region.
Eventually the Euro model bombs out a significant surface and
upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes by 12z Monday... just
grazing eastern Iowa with some precipitation. There is additional
east coast development off the coast as the low deepens and cold
air is forced over the Atlantic. This is the second day the Euro
has bombed a low...though today it is developing the system
farther east. On the back side of the system nearer the H500 upper
level may see a significant snowfall but confidence again remains
low as to where the system will phase...if at all. Here in the
region we would get mainly the colder air being pulled into the
area following the event if the Euro is correct. The GFS on the
other hand completely swings the disjointed northern and southern
stream troughs east without any cold air advection following the
event. The active pattern should continue into the remainder of
next week. Precipitation has been introduced for Sunday into
Monday...though this is highly dependent upon model solutions. A
mixture of rain and snow is forecast. Highs through the weekend
will remain chilly with 30s and 40s expected with lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon/
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Main concerns are early thunder and winds today...followed by
lowering cigs northwest/north aft 12z Tuesday. Dry slot making
its way through region now...with iso thunder along the dry line.
Confined any thunder chances to KMCW...KALO and KOTM though line
over the southeast may have been chance of affecting apt at KOTM.
Otherwise mixing winds through 23z will give way to less wind
overnight...then aft 15z Tuesday winds again mix up from the west
southwest as cigs lower northwest to MVFR conditions between
12-18z. /rev


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV



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