Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 230943
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
343 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday Night/
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Little in the way of sensible weather expected through the forecast
period, with the main issue being temperatures throughout and then
winds into Monday. Northwesterly to westerly upper level flow patter
expected today into Friday with WAA aloft ahead of a cold front to
drop through the state late Friday. Warm air to move in ahead of the
front with another well above average day expected as temps should
push into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds will pick up a bit behind
the front and become gusty, otherwise a dry frontal passage expected
with little moisture to work with and mainly an increase in some mid
clouds.


.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Upper ridging across the western US will build eastward into
the weekend and early next week with temps a bit cooler for the
Saturday behind the front. Temps then rebound quickly with WAA and
strong southwesterly to westerly flow picking up with the thermal
ridging building into the state for Monday. H85 temps increase to
around +15C to +18C across the state. Atmosphere will not mix that
deep, but still suggests the potential for a very warm day
especially given the gusty southwesterly flow expected. For now have
gone slightly above guidance grids into the upper 50s to mid 60s
across the forecast area, but trend would suggest even warmer temps
possible and will monitor the trend into the weekend. Upper level
wave still expected to drop through the state Tuesday bringing a
stronger cold front through with it, which should drop temperatures
back to near the seasonal averages for Wednesday and Thursday of
next week. Latest model solutions much drier with the frontal
passage thus all precip chances were taken out for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Any precipitation should end up further north and east of
the forecast area closer to the main upper wave closer to the Hudson
Bay region.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will prevail through
06z Friday at the central Iowa terminals. Clouds will continue to
move off to the southeast with SKC conditions before sunrise as a
weak boundary moves through the state. This will cause winds to
shift from the southwest to the northwest overnight. These
northwest winds will be short-lived as they will become from the
southwest late in the day as a warm front moves through the state.
High VFR clouds may accompany this front Thanksgiving Day
afternoon and evening.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Ansorge



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