Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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627
FXUS63 KDMX 311127
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
627 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on winds and departing
cloud cover with large surface high pressure building into the
state. The high cloud cover looks to depart later this morning as
the surface high brings a much drier airmass into the forecast area.
Some light mixing develops this afternoon with the abundant sunshine
and tweaked up winds slightly. Otherwise, no significant changes to
the ongoing temperatures forecast. Lingering fog across the west and
possibly the south if it develops this morning, but the high clouds
have mitigated the fog development overnight.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Main concerns will be during the second half of the longer term as
southwest flow aloft develops. Prior to that time, large canadian
high pressure will settle across the region with subsidence and a
dry airmass. Therefore, little sensible weather is expected
through the day on Saturday with plenty of sunshine and mild
daytime temperatures and cool nights with some patchy fog at
times. Warm advection will increase into Saturday as the surface
ridge passes to the east and southerly winds increase. Models
continue to slow the arrival of precipitation with little threat
until Saturday night into Sunday.

Southwest flow aloft will commence by the second half of the
weekend as trof moves into the intermountain west. A frontal
boundary will slide into the vicinity of Iowa by late Sunday and
linger into the middle of next week with little change in the flow
aloft. Given this and moisture streaming northward into the
boundary. There will be daily chances of thunderstorms starting on
Sunday and continuing into the middle of next week. The main
concern will be from heavy rainfall although with shear a bit
stronger than has been seen recently, there may also be a threat
of severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning/
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period. Patchy
fog is possible toward Thursday morning.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Cogil
AVIATION...Podrazik



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