000
FXUS63 KDMX 210507
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1207 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...Updated for 06z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Currently monitoring trends over southern Minnesota and northeast
Nebraska this evening as short term models/CAMs show
thunderstorms developing in the next 2 to 3 hours. Already,
thunderstorms have developed along the surface boundary over
southeast Minnesota, which the CAMs are not showing presently.
While it may seem odd that we are looking at it, the Ash RGB,
which can help to differentiate low level water vapor, showed some
sort of low level moisture or boundary moving northward into the
front with convective initiation shortly thereafter. This area is
characterized by nearly 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE that is almost
uncapped, but shear is rather weak per SPC mesoanalysis. Farther
to the southwest over northeast Nebraska, there is a boundary
apparent in the GOES-16 low level water vapor imagery. In the Ash
RGB, there is a different boundary moving northward toward the
one identified in the low level water vapor and is just north of
a Yankton to Hawarden line at 222z. This will be an area along
with northeast Nebraska to monitor with the GOES-16 1-minute
mesoscale sector 1 over Iowa now through 12z for convection that
should move across Iowa tonight. Have updated PoPs through 12z
with a blend of current forecast, HRRR, and CONSShort to better
refine expected thunderstorm timing.

As for the eclipse, updated sky cover through 21z Monday with
probably a net zero change over the forecast area, but that
doesn`t mean no change. One concern is what happens with the
thunderstorms overnight and the clouds they may leave behind
tomorrow. Another is that GOES-16 mid level water vapor currently
shows a plume of moisture from central Mexico moving up into
Colorado and Kansas. This will move over Iowa tomorrow as shown
by the HRRR simulated IR, but these clouds may end up just being
higher level clouds. A blend of the Superblend/HRRR/CONSShort
provided generally 45-55% of clouds over southern Iowa, which is
a slight improvement with higher probability of clouds over
northern Iowa.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Convective trends will highlight the concerns into Monday, but
confidence is not high. MCS remnants from overnight are still
festering from SW Iowa into MO and it continues to survive longer
than models have anticipated with most not handling current weather
well. The HRRR and ESRL HRRR seem to have the best current
projections, but even they are too aggressive pushing the cluster
off to the SE by 21z. Current RAP objective analysis continues to
show this MCS driven by H85/H7 frontogenesis and warm/theta-e
advection into 0-2km moisture convergence over NW Missouri so feel
this will continue to be a focus as the low level jet matures into
the night. The mean wind and Corfidi vectors suggest movement would
keep this out of our forecast area, or just brushing far SW
sections, with the NCAR ensembles providing a reasonable solution.

Although the MLCIN and convergence are currently unfavorable for
development anytime soon, most models suggest nocturnal development
will occur this evening somewhere over NW Iowa. Using the HRRR 305K
isent surface as a guide since it seems to have the best handle at
the moment would suggest this would occur in or near our far NW
corner as the current SD/MN mid clouds ooze into Iowa with timing
similar to last night, 02-03z. This area is also highlighted by a
GOES 16 elevated derived CAPE axis. The question will be whether
there will be enough separation between the two MCSs for them both
to have significant inflow, especially with what seems to be suspect
effective shear this far south and east. Have fairly good confidence
that this northern area will materialize to at least some degree so
have likely PoPs north later tonight as suggested by the CAM
consensus.

Looking ahead into tomorrow, most models suggest what MCSs are in
place would dissipate or exit into midday looking to re-charge into
the afternoon. It appears as though the surface based genesis area
would be similar to where the weak boundary is currently, over
northern Iowa. Instability looks to be high with at least moderate
deep shear, so a jump to severe in the 21-00z window as suggested by
most guidance and the Day 2 SPC outlook seems quite realistic.  All
modes of severe weather look possible considering the degree of
instability, especially into and shortly after peak heating.

.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Bottom Line up Front...
Continuing severe weather threat greets us at 00z Tue, with
moderate to heavy rainfall threat overnight tomorrow night. The
rest of the long term looks to be dry, with slightly below normal
temperatures.

Tuesday...
00z Tue to 06z Tue will bring the most active weather in the long
term. Located somewhere across north-central Iowa will be a cold
front attendant to strengthening sfc low pushing across northern
Lake Michigan. Ahead of the front, in the WAA sector, LLJ
continuing to surge moisture as GFS and NAM continue to suggest
PWATs of 2 inches spread across Iowa into southern Wisconsin. All
modes of severe weather will remain on the table at 00z Tue. As is
climatologically favored, instability will begin to wane with
loss of daytime heating... so am expecting storms to undergo
transition from being svr wx producers to moderate/heavy rainfall
producers. Carrying over issues discussed in short-term, not great
agreement among model members at this time. Hopefully by next
update, when hi-res models dig in and system has shown its hand
more, can have some better consistency among solutions. At this
point, confidence there that somewhere may receive 1 to 2 inches
of rain between 00z and 12z Tue, but the location of the swath of
heaviest rain is difficult to get pinned down. Suggestion at this
time is towards eastern Iowa.

Behind this system, run-to-run consistency extremely strong in a
deep, broad area of high pressure that will push significant CAA,
subsidence, and dry air entrainment into Iowa...setting us up for
a sunny afternoon on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Beyond...
Strong high pressure to take control for the rest of this week.
By Wednesday afternoon, position of high should be somewhere near
northern Minnesota, and by Friday afternoon, high should be
somewhere near northern Michigan...returning a southerly (SE)
component to the low-level flow. As expected, trends continue to
be slightly stronger, cooler, and slower with the high, so have
slowed down temperature increases by next weekend, hedging closer
to persistence. Widespread area of 850mb temps -1 to -2 std dev
over the upper Midwest support forecast temperatures of around 5
or so degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night/
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Primary concern in this TAF period are thunderstorms that will
move over the terminals tonight and at least another round of
storms expected on Monday afternoon.

Thunderstorms have developed over western Iowa and are slowly
moving off to the east. These storms are expected to turn move to
the southeast, but not before reaching KFOD and have TEMPO MVFR
ceilings/IFR visibilities there. As these storms drop toward KDSM,
similar conditions are expected. Will monitor and update for
impacts as they near the terminals. Beyond that, VCTS handles the
thunderstorms for the remainder of the night for the rest of the
terminals. After these storms depart Monday morning, next best
chance for thunderstorms will be later tomorrow afternoon and
evening as a cold front moves across the state and have VCTS
mentioned. Outside of the thunderstorms, have VFR conditions.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ansorge
SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Kotenberg
AVIATION...Ansorge