


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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677 FXUS63 KDMX 121747 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry this weekend, with a low potential (<20%) for showers and storms north Sunday afternoon to evening - Looking more active Tuesday and beyond with on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms - Late next week, cooler temperatures arrive for Thursday and Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Conditions have generally turned quiet across the state, with surface high pressure currently over Nebraska and South Dakota, which will continue to pass over the Midwest today. Given previous rainfall and light winds over portions of east/southeast Iowa, patchy dense fog has developed, with a handful of sites reporting visibilities less than a mile. Given little change in conditions expected over the area until after sunrise when winds increase, have issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight these low visibilities. While expansion in coverage of this fog is not anticipated, drivers should be extra careful in the affected area this morning. Otherwise, winds today will turn breezy out of the northwest, with gusts expected up to 20-25 mph while temperatures reach into the low 80s. Sunday will see a shift in winds back southwesterly, leading to slightly higher temperatures in the mid 80s. Model guidance generally hints at an increasing potential for showers and possibly a few storms reaching into northern Iowa as a boundary drops into the state Sunday afternoon into the early evening. Given that the signal is fairly weak, have only introduced low PoP mentions across the north in coordination with neighbors, and will continue to monitor for further changes. Soundings indicate favorable shear and instability over the area that point to storm development, though given weaker forcing, the overall potential is lower end at this time. General thunder per SPC guidance is highlighted over northern Iowa to highlight the potential. Rainfall amounts look to remain generally under a half inch with any showers/storms that are able to develop. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 TODAY...Thunderstorms capable of heavy rain, damaging wind, and event a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening. Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery shows storms across much of the region as of 2PM. For the rest of today, multiple rounds of storms could lead to heavy rain and flooding. There is also a severe weather threat with these storms, with damaging wind and a few tornadoes being the primary threat. A weak surface low was centered across southern Iowa, with southeast winds ahead of it.Temperautres were in the mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This warm and unstable airmass will be the main driver for thunderstorms today, while upstream an upper level wave along the IA/NE border will provide the forcing for ascent. The main question will be how long storms will be discrete in the warm sector, vs how quickly they will grow upscale into a line. This is one of the key factors for whether or not tornadoes or damaging wind will be the primary threat. Even if storms do develop into a line, the low level shear could support QLCS tornadoes, so have a Tornado Watch in effect for mainly the Southeast part of Iowa, including the Des Moines metro. North of this, a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect, where confidence is higher in a wind and/or hail threat. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rain is also a concern given the PWAT values near or above 2 inches. Training storms along an ill-defined warm front could produce rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches, with a few pockets close to 4 inches based on the local probability matched mean of the HREF. SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Storms will move east tonight, and the weather will dry out over the weekend and into early next week. The next chance for storms will be Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. A few storms could be strong to severe, but as of now there isn`t a signal that this will be anything noteworthy. Looking ahead, if the cold front is able to push through, temperatures will cool off toward the end of week, with highs closer to 80s. If it hangs up across the region, then expect continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 BKN deck across the southeast will become SCT and VFR this hour as the atmosphere mixes. Short-lived MVFR from HZ possible at times this afternoon. Transient enough to leave it out of the TAF, but will monitor the short term. Additional smoke should stay aloft across the north, hence the high-level ceiling preserved for the period. KALO and KDSM may see fog tonight as winds become light. Have left as BCFG for now, but will evaluate for VSBY restrictions for the next issuance. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Bury DISCUSSION... AVIATION...Jimenez