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000
FXUS63 KGRB 012347
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
547 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LIFT COMBINED
WITH DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE UP TO AROUND 5000FT. FARTHER EAST...
DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEPT THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS...
EVEN ERODING MANY OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AS THEY TRIED TO PUSH EAST.
THE LOWER CLOUDS FINALLY PUSHED INTO EASTERN WI BY MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. LINGERING
FLURRIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH TO KEEP SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER
THE NORTH (TODAY IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THAT) SO WILL LINGER A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...AND A SUNNY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...INCLUDING THE ECMWFBC AND SREFBC...WHICH HAVE LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO AROUND 10 IN
THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY AS TEMPS BELOW 2000FT REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW JET ENERGY FROM THE
POLAR JET TO RACE NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PRODUCE A MODEST
SURFACE CYCLONE THAT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER
MICHIGAN. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THREE OR FOUR INCHES LIKELY
IN MOST PLACES.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH SOME MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE VERY COLD WITH 20 BELOW OR COLDER IN
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS MOVING INLAND TO
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT RISE QUICKLY TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. VFR CONDIITONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TOWARD MONDAY EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ADHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB