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000
FXUS63 KGRB 121140
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
640 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PCPN TRENDS...TEMPERATURES...AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE.
GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH WERE OCCURRING OVER THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE
AREAS. THE NORTH WINDS WERE PULLING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WAS SLOWING THE TEMPERATURE FALL. TEMPERATURE
READINGS RANGED FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO THE 20S TO AROUND 30
SOUTH.

A SHARP UPPER TROF WAS MOVG INTO WSTRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND WAS GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES OVER THE REGION.
THE AREA OF SNOW WAS DRIFTING SOUTH...AND SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS EAST OF WAUSAU AND WISCONSIN RAPIDS...AND WEST OF GREEN
BAY AND CHILTON. VSBYS WERE GENERALLY 5-7SM...SO LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING
AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRYING WAS EVIDENT ON SATL...WHICH SHOWED CLEARING
ALREADY OCCURRING OVER NE MN AND THE NORTHERN UPPER PENINSULA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY...AS SOME PLACES IN THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR WARMEST READINGS EARLY IN THE DAY...
WHILE NORTHERN WI GETS SOME RECOVERY DUE TO MARCH SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR THE NE
HALF OF GRB CWA...AND LOW TO MID 20S SOUTHWEST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP-OFF
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING...BEFORE CLOUD COVER INCREASES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT IN SOME AREAS.

INCREASING WAA WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE FAR WSTRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO THE REST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING.
RH/TEMP TIME SECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ
AS THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT AND H8 TEMPS WARM LATE THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOS GUIDANCE HAS PROHIBITIVELY LARGE
SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. WILL JUST
END THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF DZ/FZDZ...JUST LIKE
THE PREVIOUS FCST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE...BUT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS PATTERN.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO
THE REGION WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODELS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR THAT PART
OF THE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
FRIDAY WITH AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING
THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY...WHEN
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S. NORMAL LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SHOT
OF COLDER AIR. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY APPROACHING NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
C/EC WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY
AROUND 15Z...AS THE TROF SHIFTS EAST. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM
VFR TO MVFR UNTIL THE TROF EXITS THE REGION. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 TO 30 KTS IN THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS THIS MORNING...
AND TO AROUND 20 KTS FARTHER WEST. THE NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NC/C WI LATE
TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH