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000
FXUS63 KGRB 181941
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FCST ISSUES TO BE TIMING OF PCPN ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SAT AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. TEMPS ON SAT ARE ALSO
NO BARGAIN AS CLOUDS THICKEN...PLENTY OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN ONTARIO SWD THRU WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MORNING LOW CLOUDS
IN THE EAST HAD MIXED OUT AND DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD WAS EATING
AWAY AT THE MID/HI CLOUDS TRYING TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SNOW LINE RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM
MEDFORD TO ANTIGO TO WAUSAUKEE.

THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDES TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES TNGT AND ALLOWS
THE WIND TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE E-SE OVRNGT. ATTENTION TO BE FOCUSED
OVER S-CNTRL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WHERE A SFC LOW/CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF
TO BE SITUATED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS (50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET)
TO BE AIMED AT THE UPR MS VALLEY AND HELP LIFT A WRMFNT INTO CNTRL
MN/SW WI BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE SOME PCPN BREAK OUT IN THE
STRONG ISEN LIFT REGIME/UPR DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER MN AND MOVE INTO NW
WI LATE. FOR NE WI...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU THE NGT ALTHO A
SMALL POP MAY BE NEEDED FOR VILAS/NW ONEIDA COUNTIES LATE. UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
UNDER THE SNOWPACK NORTH...TO AROUND 30 DEGS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROF ARE FCST TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER ON SAT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
CDFNT WL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS MN AS THE WRMFNT LIFT NE THRU WI. EVEN
THO THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS...A PERSISTENT SOUTH WIND JUST ABOVE
THE SFC WL BRING MSTR NWD. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP STRONGER
FORCING WELL TO OUR NW WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF...LEAVING THE CDFNT
AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PCPN. THIS WOULD PLACE N-CNTRL WI WITH
THE BEST CHC OF SEEING LIGHT RAIN MOVE IN ON SAT. THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA WL ONLY SEE CLOUDS INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPR 40S OVER
N-CNTRL WI...TO THE LWR TO MID 60S OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI. ONSHORE
WINDS WL CONT TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE COOLER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ABOUT THE
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EASTER SUNDAY. THINK
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A
BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STAYING DRY EASTER
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THEN UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
AIR AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY. THEY BRING THE UPPER
SYSTEM ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

MELTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY
RISE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE A BIT MORE MODEST THAT WHAT WAS FORECAST A FEW DAYS
AGO...WHICH MAY SPARE US FROM SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

NOW THAT THE MORNING MVFR LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...
EXPECT TO SEE ONLY MID/HI CLOUDS DRIFT THRU AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAIN ATTRACTION TO BE A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES THIS WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A CDFNT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TNGT/SAT WL BRING MSTR NWD FOR
THE CDFNT TO GENERATE SHWRS TO OUR WEST TNGT AND THE NRN THIRD OF
WI ON SAT. EVEN WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING...FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU SAT WITH VFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KALLAS