Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 280442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1142 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

An upper trough will move across the region during the late
afternoon and evening hours, while a surface cold front also
drops south across the area. Some scattered thunderstorms are
expected during the mid afternoon hours as the air begins to
destabilize again after earlier clouds and precipitation. More
organized convection over western Wisconsin will move into our
area during the late afternoon and probably weaken during the
evening as surface heating is reduced. Still could get some decent
wind gusts and some hail. Main threat is likely heavy rain with
local 1 to 2 inch amounts possible.

Drier air will arrive from the north Thursday with the chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms limited to areas south of highway
29. Highs will be at or below normal with lower relative humidity
than the last few days.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Any lingering showers should shift out of our southern counties
Thursday evening, as Canadian high pressure and associated drier
air edges into the forecast area. Although a few models generate
spotty and weak afternoon convection at times, the general
concensus is for a dry period from Friday through Monday, along
with a gradual warming trend.

As the Canadian high shifts east Monday night into Tuesday,
southerly return will lift a warm front toward the forecast
area, resulting in a chance of thunderstorms. The chance of
storms will linger through the middle of the week. Very warm
and muggy conditions appear poised to return during this period,
along with potential for locally heavy rainfall, as precipitable
water values increase to around 2 inches.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A cold front will continue to slowly sag south overnight, while a
mid-level shortwave trough to work east across WI. This will
continue to bring a chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms to
much of the region. Cigs/vsbys are expected to drop into the MVFR/
low-end VFR conditions late tonight/early Thursday morning as
cooler air begins to push into Wisconsin. Models have trended
slower with the clearing trend on Thursday as additional shortwave
troughs move E-SE through the NW flow aloft. This could lead to
extending the chance pops through most of Thursday with northern
WI perhaps seeing a drying trend in the afternoon as high pressure
attempts to build south from Canada. MVFR cigs are expected to
linger Thursday morning and then slowly rise to low-end VFR cigs
in the afternoon.



LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......AK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.