Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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297
FXUS63 KGRB 060329
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS BROUGHT SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY SO RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY BUT THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON
FRIDAY...BUT NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. MINIMUM REALTIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY AIR AND TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE RATHER LOW SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

NICE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MOTHERS DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SO RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE MODEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF LLWS
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH INCLUDE RHI...AUW
AND CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH



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