Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 270347 AAB
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
947 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

JUST RECEIVED A LOCALLY HIGHER 4 INCH ACCUMULATION NEAR
PRESQUE ISLE SINCE 430 PM COURTESY OF CHANNEL 12 RHINELANDER. WILL
ISSUE A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF VILAS
COUNTY. FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION MAY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW
FAR NORTHWEST A BIT LONGER TONIGHT.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 849 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AND PASSING THROUGH A BIT QUICKER.
WILL PROBABLY ONLY NEED TO TWEAK THE END TIME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW
BELT REGION OF VILAS COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE NEAR ADVISORY AMOUNTS
GOING OVER NORTHWEST VILAS COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY.  MANITOWISH
WATERS DROPPED TO NEAR 1 1/4 MILE IN SNOW AT 800 PM...WHILE IWD AT
3/4 MILE. WINCHESTER WEB CAM DOES NOT INDICATE ACCUM SNOW FALLING
AT THIS TIME WITH A 10 INCH SNOW DEPTH AT 9 PM THIS EVENING...WILL
CHECK BACK IN A FEW HOURS. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS BETTER ENHANCEMENT
JUST WEST OF VILAS COUNTY. IN ADDITION...AS THE SYSTEM SNOW
DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...DLH RADAR APPEARS TO SHOW DIMINISHING
LAKE BANDS. EVEN THOUGH COLDER AIR IS POURING IN WITH NEAR
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SURFACE TO H850...DRIER
SUBSIDENT AIR MAY BE LIMITING THE PLUMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NRN STREAM SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
WL BE LIMITED. SYSTEM WL CONT TO GENERATE SOME S- ACRS THE N LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING...AND THAT WL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
LAKE-EFFECT EVENT DURING THE NGT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN VILAS COUNTY WL BE WIND DIRECTION...WHICH WL
INITIALLY BE TOO NELY. THAT RESULTS IN TOO LONG OF AN OVER-LAND
TRAJECTORY FOR MUCH OF THE NGT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE BY
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WL BE WORKING AGAINST THE LAKE-EFFECT BY THAT POINT.
HAVE 24 HR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SNOWBELT OF AROUND 4 INCHES...
WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD BE W AND NW OF THE FCST AREA...WHERE THE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

THE LGT SNOW FM N-C WL WL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SOME. IT
WL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-MORNING FOR THE SNOW TO TOTALLY PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. WENT WITH ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF SNOW ACRS THE AREA.
WL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS IN THE HWO AND AN SPS.

THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE COLD AIR WL BE SWD TO OUR W TNGT...SO
TEMPS MAY NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH. THE COLDER AIR WL SURGE EWD/SEWD
ACRS THE AREA TOMORROW...SO TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH DURING
THE DAY. GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED...AND THAT WL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

26/12Z MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROF FRIDAY. GENERAL
1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH RESPECT TO THIS PART OF THE LONG
TERM.

SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY MID-MORNING...THEN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVE FROM W TO E AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY AND
MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB MOVES IN.

BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS FLOW BRIEFLY
AMPLIFIES A BIT...BUT TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL RETURN AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A MORE SPLIT FLOW BY THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...PUNCTUATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

MODEL MIN TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO COLD FRI NIGHT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO USE BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND WHICH ADDS 6 TO 10 DEGS TO
THE FRI NIGHT GFS MOS GUID LOWS. BLENDED MODEL GUID IS USED FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.  DRIER AIR ON
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR NORTH DUE
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......TDH






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