Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 252051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD TRENDS WL BE THE KEY TO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD FCST FOR EARLY TNGT IS TRICKY. LOW CLDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. BUT THEY
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY...INDICATING
THEY MAY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOW/MID CLDS IS HEADING EWD FM E-C MN...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WL PASS
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TNGT. A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FM THE
PLAINS LATER IN THE NGT. SO WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOWCOVER AND LGT
WINDS...MIN TEMPS PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE ANY CLR PERIODS DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE E/NE PART
OF THE AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES DURING
THE EVENING. WENT WITH LOWEST TEMPS THERE...THOUGH ALWAYS HAVE TO
BE CONCERNED THAT N-C WI COULD JUST FREE-FALL WITH EVEN A SHORT
BREAK IN THE CLDS THERE. LOOKS LIKE THEY WL BE CLR RIGHT AFTER
SUNSET...SO TOOK TEMPS DOWN HARD THERE AT DUSK...THEN LET THEM
COME BACK DURING THE NGT AS CLDS INCREASE.

THE OTHER MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE CHC FOR SNOW. STILL A FEW
FLURRIES ACRS THE AREA...SO WL LINGER THOSE INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR RETURNS FM ERN MN/WRN WI ALSO SUGGEST FLURRIES STILL
OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLDS HEADING IN FM THE W. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA TOMORROW. BUT THE LARGE AREA OF
RADAR ECHOS MOVG ESEWD ACRS ND ON THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS CERTAINLY
CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THAT AREA OF
PCPN SHOULD TURN MORE SE AS THE UPR FLOW AMPLIFIES...BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALSO ADDED CHC OF FLURRIES TO FAR ERN WI
TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD TURN ONSHORE AS SFC LOW HEADS
TOWARD IA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WEDS NGT INTO THU...AND
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER TROF AND LLVL CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR VILAS
COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHEN THE SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WEDS EVG...AND SOME LLVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT. BEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WED NGT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH LES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY IN VILAS COUNTY.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NGT/
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE WAA...
THEN LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...BEFORE THE PACIFIC LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR FLOODS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
LOW.

AFTER THE BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...FIGURING OUT LOW CLOUD TRENDS IS
A CHALLENGE. THOUGH THINNING...CLDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINED ACRS
THE BULK OF THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THEY SHOULD CONT TO THIN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE E...BUT WK KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES GOING
WELL INTO THE AFTN. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLDS FM THE W WL PROBABLY
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WRN TAF SITES BEFORE SHIFTG OFF TO THE NE
WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP OFF
DURING THE NGT DUE TO FOG AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN BOTH THE MET AND
LAV GUIDANCE...SO ADDED TO THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






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