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000
FXUS63 KGRB 200832
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
332 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Coverage and intensity of convection, along and near a frontal
boundary sagging southward across the area later through Monday,
will be the focus of this period.

Early this morning a surface frontal boundary extended from far
northwest Minnesota to the central plains. Convection over
Nebraska continues to dive southeastward along the mid level cap
edge. To the north, a short wave over northwest South Dakota and
the start of the westerlies, was producing convection. The onset
of the convection along the approaching front over northwest
wisconsin later today will will likely get enhanced as mid level
winds and shear increases. In terms of timing, this short wave
may reach the northwest half of the state before the front this
afternoon. Not sure how this will impact any severe potential at
this time, but with MU CAPES increasing to at least 1000 J/kg
this afternoon and evening, convection may develop ahead of the
front in the warm sector and turn out to be stronger, especially
during peak heating later today into early evening.

Will then focus showers and storms along the southward sagging
frontal boundary tonight into Monday. Progs suggest the front
stalls over central Wisconsin by daybreak Monday, leaving chance
pops over the south half of the forecast area and lower end or no
chance of convection across the north. Stronger dynamics to work
with the front will likely arrive after the Monday period.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Spotty convection is likely linger on into the beginning of the
longterm forecast Monday afternoon with the stalled front still in
the area. A more organized round of convection will develop in
the evening along a shortwave. MUCAPE values around 1000-1500 and
Bulk Shear up to 30-40 knots will support convective develpment as
the forecast area enters the right rear quadrant of a jet streak
aloft. Combined, the forecast area will see a marginal risk of
severe storms across central Wisconsin. The main inhibitors to the
strongest storms will be the timing of the front, which could
push further south by the time the shortwave arrives and take the
convection with it, and the possibilty that instability remains
limited after convection earlier in the day. In any case, heavy
rainfall will be likely through Monday night.

Some showers will linger on early Tuesday before quickly coming to
and end by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Once this system pushes
through, quiet conditions will arrive for the rest of the week as
northwesterly flow aloft brings in high pressure conditions near
the surface.

Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal through the
midweek before coming back to around normal by the end of the
week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Relatively light winds, few clouds and high dew points should
lead to the development of fog overnight. Expect areas of dense
fog but am not certain it will be widespread. Have MVFR fog at TAF
sites tonight with IFR/LIFR in a TEMPO group. Fog should mix out
rapidly on Sunday morning through mixing and increased winds.
Some showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening as a cold front approaches from the west, particularly
across the western TAF sites. Therefore will introduce a PROB30
group for these sites during the late afternoon and evening hours
on Sunday. There is some doubt on whether this activity can hold
together and hit the eastern TAF sites given the timing will be
after peak heating therefore will keep these sites dry with this
issuance.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski