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000
FXUS63 KGRB 291244 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM MVFR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHILE BANDS OF A
LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE PASSING OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN AND IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO IMPROVE TO A WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-038-048-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ022-
039-040-049-050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH