Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 020753
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.  SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DEBRIS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG
OR NEAR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PROGS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATING LATER TODAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE REGION
FILTERS INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEAST WINDS. STILL MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY HIGHS. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE USUAL
COOLER BY THE BAY AND LAKE TEMPS.

FLATTENING UPPER FLOW AND A CANADIAN SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WAA
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SPREAD CONVECTION INTO
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OF
THE MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS THIS FRONTAL NUDGES A BIT
MORE EASTWARD.

WILL PLAN ON LETTING THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM THIS
MORNING...IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT...WILL
CANCEL A BIT EARLIER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF FORECAST IS HOW LONG TO KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP TO GET THE FRONT
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWED SOME
6-HOUR QPF TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 0.5 INCH...BUT THEY DID NOT ALL
HAVE MAXIMA IN THE SAME LOCATION...SO NOT TOO ALARMED ABOUT FLOOD
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE THINGS START TO WIND DOWN
ON MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LIKELY WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THURSDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.

RDM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 700 AM TODAY
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021-073-

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM


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