Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 221714
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1214 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM IOWA TO INDIANA AND OHIO
WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY
MINOR CONCERNS WILL BE WHETHER TO INCLUDE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS
AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER MID-WEEK...FOG POTENTIAL...AND HOW WARM
TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH PULLING
OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S....AS RIDGING SPREADS/BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MAIN FEATURE WORTH WATCHING FOR OUR
AREA WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT HAVE WAFFLED A LITTLE ON
HOW FAR EAST ITS EFFECT WILL REACH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIP...JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY FORECAST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID-WEEK...TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. ITS INFLUENCE WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LOOK TO BE THE LIGHTEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER. 850MB TEMPS LOOK
REMARKABLY STEADY BETWEEN 11C-14C THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIXING UP TO
850MB WOULD GET HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL ONLY TO AROUND 900-875MB. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH A LITTLE COOLER...AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN A LITTLE WARMER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 FT AND 4000 FT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ALLEN





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