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000
FXUS63 KGRB 251732
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. A QUICK SPRINKLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT TIMES.
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE
AS PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS WHICH WORKED OVER THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME SO
MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OF THE SHOWER VARIETY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE THE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
DRIVEN BY THE LLJ INTO THE H850 WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL IOWA. THIS CONVECTION AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION...H300/850 THICKNESS FIELDS ALSO SUPPORTS A
STORM MOVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
AS A RESULT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE H50 TROUGH AND THEN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE H850
TROUGH SLIDES OVER.

WILL REMOVE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO WEAK
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF DRIER AIR ON
WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80 TO 85 RANGE ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

500MB RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...
LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATED CAPES OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG...WINDEX VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND TEN THOUSAND FEET ON SUNDAY. WIND SHEAR OF 20-30
KNOTS OF SHEAR ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IF THERE IS SOME SUN SUNDAY MORNING.

LEFT A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE WESTERN PATTERN MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO UPPER LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...COMBINED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE GRIDS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THOUGH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  RELATIVELY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC