Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 131752
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ON SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY AS DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER ONTARIO MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES ON
MONDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST GIVEN
CONSISTENCY.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW OVER NORTHWEST WI. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH CWA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
FELT BEING LOWER HUMIDITY. SHOWERS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISHED. A NUMBER OF MODELS THOUGH SUGGEST SOME
REDEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF CWA LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGHER DEW POINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOW/TROF SWINGING THROUGH.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
GRIDS. SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME CAPE WITH TT`S OF 50 TO 52 IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6K TO LEAD TO SMALL
HAIL WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS.

NO REAL CHANGE MADE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS MONDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE LOW IN THIS
HAPPENING...THUS DID NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THESE TWO
DAYS.

IT WILL REMAIN COOL ON TUESDAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH READINGS RETURNING CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CIGS WERE VFR ACROSS THE AREA AT 17Z...WITH ISOLATED
MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z...LEAVING ONLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND IT. DEVELOPING CU
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL PROBABLY FORM VFR CIGS WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE STATE SHOULD BRING MVFR CIGS
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG





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