Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 182035
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
335 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2017

Little change to the overall forecast with the primary story the
dangerous heat and humidity combo projected to persist across the
area Wednesday through Saturday.

A remnant MCV/upper disturbance has resulted in scattered to broken
cloud cover and a few showers across northern Missouri as of early
this afternoon. This feature will move eastward through the
remainder of the afternoon, with slight chances for measurable light
precipitation along the Highway 36 corridor. Otherwise, the weather
will be quiet overnight with the exception of additional convection
potentially developing over far northwest Missouri, northeast
Kansas, and southeast Nebraska. The focus remains relatively
nebulous, perhaps on the edge of weak warm air advection and a
glancing shot from a weak upper disturbance in South Dakota, with a
few models generating precipitation. What convection that does
develop is not expected to be strong, and likewise should have
little role in altering maximum temperatures during Wednesday
afternoon.

Confidence has grown that the entire forecast area will experience
heat indicies reaching the 105-110 range each afternoon, Wednesday
through Saturday. The excessive heat warning has been expanded for
all areas, and extended through 8pm Saturday. Thereafter, the upper
ridge begins to flatten out and a cold front moves through the area
late in the weekend into early next week. Ahead and along the cold
front, scattered thunderstorms will be possible. With this changing
pattern, the prolonged heat is expected to at least temporarily
subside, with afternoon readings closer to seasonable levels.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2017

Quiet weather overall - VFR. Winds will remain below 12 kts with
little change in direction. Some signal for potential convection
over NE KS, SE NE overnight into tomorrow morning, but activity
should reside north/west of terminals tomorrow morning, dissipating
prior to reaching terminal space.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair



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