Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 271750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Thick ac deck tied to convective cloud debris left from a decaying
MCV moving into eastern NE will spread across much of the CWA this
afternoon. Main concern is its affect on heating and thus heat
indices, mainly for far northwest MO. Will see how 1 pm temperatures
respond but leaning towards cancelling a handful of counties.

Also watching the isolated cells which just popped up east of
MHK....on the backside of the debris cloudiness no less. Don`t think
they`ll have legs but will monitor trends. Isolated cells also popped
on northern Atchison county MO border. This is closer to the NE
vorticity center so we could see additional storms develop
along/north of the MO/IA border this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Will maintain VFR forecast with southerly winds increasing late
Tuesday morning.

Could see a few sprinkles over northwest MO this afternoon. Will
monitor the isolated convective cells that just popped up east of KMHK.
Don`t think they`ll last too long so will maintain a dry forecast at
the terminals. Convective cloud debris, bases aoa 12k ft, will spread
east across northern/west central MO this afternoon with few clouds
after it clears.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ



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