Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 290826

326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For this morning, showers and storms developing along the low-level
jet axis in eastern KS will continue to translate eastward; however,
storms are expected to weaken and begin to dissipate as they move
off the LLJ and into an area of lower elevated instability. These
storms may produce up to a quarter inch of precipitation along the
CWA border, but rainfall amounts will decrease significantly to the

A lull in precipitation is possible from late morning through the
early afternoon hours after morning convection dissipates; then
storm chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours
as an upper trough edges into the region and fuels widespread but
scattered precipitation. Adequate instability for at least some
convective activity is expected which will locally enhance rainfall
totals, but was not confident enough in widespread moderate-heavy
rainfall amounts for the issuance of any kind of flood watch. Strong
to severe storms are also fairly unlikely due to deep-layer shear
values maxing out around 20-25 kts, but a briefly robust pulsy storm
is possible if periods of clearing allow instability to grow to the
RAP`s advertised 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. High temperatures
will also depend on the degree of clearing that can occur this AM
before storms redevelop, but could reach the low 80s with a few
hours of sunshine.

The surface cold front associated with a second upper trough will
slide through the region late tonight, pushing thunderstorm activity
out of the region by Saturday morning and allowing cooler, drier
conditions to build in for the remainder of the weekend. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be a touch below normal in the mid 60s to
lower 70s, and lows should settle into the 50s both nights.

A return to southerly flow and warmer temperatures will come on
Monday as surface high pressure exits to the southeast, but dry
weather is still expected as upper level ridging builds across the
central Plains. A few thunderstorms will become possible Wednesday
night or Thursday as the upper ridge begins to flatten, but chances
are generally around or less than 30 percent for the end of the work


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

There`s an area of developing showers and storms, in addition to the
cluster of storms moving east from western Kansas, that is all
tracking to the east. Timing this out it may get to the terminals in
the 09-10Z time frame. Instability is much weaker further east so
have only carried a SHRA VCTS group as the coverage of actual
thunderstorm activity is still rather scattered. Outside of the
activity this morning, the atmosphere is so moist that additional
showers and storms could form at almost any time. Tried to couple
these to timing of the front for this evening and to a possible
impulse coming north ahead of the front.




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