Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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548
FXUS63 KEAX 240845
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 344 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017

A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system has developed over
SE Colorado with a triple point over central Kansas extending a warm
frontal boundary up through central Nebraska and a weak cold frontal
boundary south into northern TX.  As the upper level short wave and
surface low move to the SE the cold frontal boundary and associated
upper level colder air will progress eastward into the area during
the late morning and early afternoon. As the upper level dynamics
match up with the surface boundary and moisture advection from
the south, showers with embedded elevated thunderstorms are
expected to develop near the KS/MO border. Currently there is
little to no instability as the temperature profiles show a
nearly moist adiabatic lapse rate as this boundary pushes
through. This should limit any type of severe weather from
occurring with the first wave of this system, but the showers and
storms that do develop will be very efficient rain makers with
PWAT values between 1.2 and 1.3 inches, near the max for PWAT
values at this time of the year. This boundary will become well
established over central MO with .75 to 1 inch of precipitation
possible through the evening period. A second wave of development
is expected over eastern KS in the afternoon as a dry line moves
east and interacts with strong upper level lifting from the upper
level short wave. This secondary development has a better chance
of developing some isolated strong to severe storms with CAPE
values between 500-1000 J/kg and very high sfc-6km shear of
60kts. This window is very short lived with the main threat of
large hail and damaging winds confined to the counties just east
of the KS/MO border if it even makes it that far east.

As the low moves into northern Arkansas and southern MO Friday night
into Saturday as the occluded like boundary pushes through the
area creating another round of scattered showers with embedded
elevated thunderstorms throughout most the day on Saturday. The
precipitation is expected to taper off late Saturday evening. With
cloud coverage and precipitation in place most the day Saturday
temperatures will drop almost 20 degrees from what we have seen
lately in the mid 50s for highs. As this system moves off to the
northeast another shortwave will move over Colorado Sunday evening
helping to develop a surface low over northern Oklahoma. This
system will create an area of isentropic lift along the southern
CWA early Monday morning advecting to the NE quickly.
Precipitation will exit the region by Monday night after dropping
around .5 inches of precipitation over most of the region.

The steady stream of shortwaves will continue with another low
pressure and warm frontal boundary pushing through the area
Wednesday night with precipitation expected throughout the day on
Thursday. So far models are in fair agreement with the low passing
through central MO and our CWA getting another needed round of
precipitation.  Currently another inch of precipitation is possible
with this system which could total to a very much needed 2 inches of
precipitation from the three different systems if things occur as
expected.



&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds will persist overnight.
A strong low level jet streaming over the area will result in low
level wind shear through the night. This will diminish with
sunrise but as deeper mixing occurs there may be an increase in
wind speeds and gusts during the morning hours. These should
diminish into the afternoon hours. There may also be several
rounds of precipitation. Showers may move through the area during
the morning hours. A line of storms then looks possible in the
afternoon followed by another round of storms overnight. There is
still ample uncertainty regarding the timing and coverage so have
kept mention to vicinity.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...CDB



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