Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 221738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.Update...
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 22 2018

Have updated the forecast to slow down the warmup to and above
freezing. The overall trend is the same but a few hours slower.
This altered the weather type and required breaking up the winter
weather advisory to try and match the temperature trend. The next
round of rain is showing up over south central KS, tracking to
the northeast. The slower warming temperatures could be
problematic across northern MO with this activity. Think by the
time it reaches the Metro and points east and south, temperatures
will be above freezing and only be rain. But across northern MO,
this could bring another tenth of an inch of ice accumulation.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 426 AM CST THU FEB 22 2018

The wintry precipitation continues this morning across much of the
forecast area, with freezing rain and some wintry mix being
reported south of HWY 36 and snow/sleet north of HWY 36. Those
north of HWY 36 should see a change over to freezing rain near
dawn as cloud ice introduction decreases. The precipitation will
continue through the morning hours before lifting north. Between a
tenth and two tenths of an inch of ice is expected. A short break
in the precipitation is then expected across much of the forecast
area late morning through early afternoon, but can`t rule out
some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle. Temperatures are expected to
warm more than yesterday, but there is some uncertainty to how
warm we get. In general, models bring those in central MO to the
low 40s, with areas west reaching the mid 30s. While it is not
totally out of the realm of possibilities, it doesn`t seem likely
due to the easterly surface wind, cloud cover, and the
ice/snow/sleet accumulations. Therefore, have cooled temperatures
during the day today a few degrees. With that said, our southern
third of counties could still see a change over to rain late this
morning before the precipitation moves out.

A second round of precipitation, if you will, is expected to move
north into the area later this afternoon, but by the time this
occurs, most of the forecast area temperatures should be above
freezing, with the exception of our northwest corner and northern
tier of counties. In these areas, freezing rain will be the
primary precip type, but temperatures will actually continue to
increase for the first part of the night due to WAA, so some
liquid rain will eventually start to mix in. With the expected
continuation of freezing rain in these areas, the Winter Weather
Advisory now goes until midnight Friday morning. The
precipitation should exit the area early Friday morning.

This weekend, the upper level trough that is currently over the
Pacific Northwest will move through the Plains providing upper-level
support for more precipitation. At the surface, a lee-side trough
will take shape and move a warm front and then a cold front
through the area. While there are a few differences between the
NAM, GFS, and ECMWF, they all show this system having strong
dynamics with the upper-level trough taking on a negative tilt as
it passes overhead. This and the robust surface low bringing
ample moisture and instability could lead to storm development,
and potentially strong storm development. The system is scheduled
to move out of the area Sunday morning, with high pressure moving
in behind. The high pressure should keep us dry for the early part
of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 22 2018

Poor aviation conditions continue with reduced visibility and IFR
or lower ceilings. Freezing drizzle may become freezing rain as
an area of stronger echoes in eastern KS move over the area in the
next one to three hours. Temperatures should warm above freezing
at the KC area terminals by this afternoon, but STJ will be later,
and potentially remain below freezing through the evening when a
close to normal diurnal trend cools temperatures a bit. Outside of
the wintry precipitation, IFR ceilings are expected to persist
through the entire forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ025-
     102.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ103-
     104.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ057-
     105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     MOZ001>008-011>016-020.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MOZ021>023-028-029.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ017-
     024-025-030>032-037.

&&

$$

Update...CDB
Discussion...Grana
Aviation...CDB


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