Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 262338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

Short term (Tonight - Tuesday):

The short term holds no concerns but does bring another chance for
beneficial rainfall tonight into Monday to help alleviate local
drought conditions. This chance of rainfall will come courtesy of an
upper level shortwave moving into the western Plains this afternoon.
An attendant surface low is currently located across the southern
Kansas/ eastern Oklahoma Panhandle border this afternoon. As the
upper shortwave moves into the central Plains tonight the surface
low will move across northern Oklahoma. Moisture will push northward
ahead of the system overspreading showers from southwest to
northeast across the forecast area. Although better forcing and
instability is much better further south a few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible generally south of Highway 50. PWAT
values are in the 0.80" (north) to 1.25" (south) range which is not
anomalously high but still healthy for this time of year. This
should help yield precipitation amounts of 0.50"-1.00" along and
south of Interstate 70 with lesser amounts further north. The upper
level shortwave will push through the area tomorrow morning with
precipitation exiting the eastern CWA by tomorrow afternoon. Clouds
will persist through most of the day tomorrow keeping temperatures
in the 50s. Surface high pressure build into the area tomorrow night
with lows in the low to mid 40s. Surface high pressure will remain in
control for much of the day Tuesday as well before finally shifting
east later in the day. Highs will range from the mid 50s to the mid
60s.

Extended Range (Tuesday night - Sunday):

The extend forecast period looks to provide continued chances for
much needed precipitation. Monday another upper level trough will
dig into the west coast and by Tuesday night will dig into the Four
Corners region with a closed low. Gulf moisture will begin to stream
north ahead of this system Tuesday night with showers developing
after midnight. This upper low will be a slow mover only moving from
the Four Corners to western Missouri by Thursday night. This will
keep precipitation chances going through that period with a few
chances at moderate rainfall. Storm totals of 0.50" to 1.50" will be
possible. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will range from the
lower 50s to lower 60s. Friday, the upper level system finally
pushes northeast into the Great Lakes region and we dry out Friday
through Saturday. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s to near 60
Friday warming into the low to mid 60s Saturday. However, by
Saturday night another system very similar to the midweek system
will bring another chance for showers Saturday through Sunday to the
area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

MVFR ceilings will remain around 2 kft for the next few hours,
then will gradually begin to lower as light rain showers build
into the region. These showers will be scattered, but will impact
terminals more often than not throughout the evening and early
overnight hours. Heavier showers with perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm or two (mainly south of I-70) will shift into the
area after 06z, and continue through mid-morning before pivoting
out of the region. Ceilings will likely drop to IFR with the
heavier showers, but will have to watch trends and upstream obs to
see whether or not LIFR looks likely after 06z. Ceilings will
gradually lift in the morning but remain MVFR through much of the
day, scattering out near sunset Monday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Laflin


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