Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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470
FXUS63 KEAX 211733
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

Upper-level low responsible for this weekend`s rainfall continues
to lift northeast towards the western Great Lakes this morning,
while surface high pressure in its wake builds south across the
Central and Southern Plains. Its this secondary feature that will
ensure an absolutely fine spring Sunday with ample sunshine and
warmer temperatures as highs climb into the upper 60s to lower
70s this afternoon. This feature will then settle south across the
lower Mississippi Vly later tonight with southerly winds on its
backside initiating modest return flow as we head into the start
of the work week. Fcst models in recent days have been insistent
on developing shwr/storm activity as return flow moisture begins
interacting with incoming shortwave energy rotating along the
underbelly of a remnant closed low across the upper Great Lakes on
Monday. Inspection of several BUFKIT soundings from across the
region show weak instability generation by Monday afternoon, with
MLCAPE values generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with the
highest values expected across the far northwest zones where
moisture content will be highest and midlevel lapse rates the
steepest. As a result, expect developing shwr/storm activity by
Monday afternoon with marginally severe hail and strong winds
possible mainly north and west of the I-35 corridor.

Shwrs/isolated storms to continue Tuesday night as main cold front
slides south over the region. This will mark the beginning of yet
period of below normal temps as broad northwest flow prevails in
response to high pressure approaching from the northwest. The
threat for shwrs/storms will persist through the day on Tuesday
however as main midlevel wave moves overhead and instability type
shwrs develop over the region. With fcst soundings showing low
freezing levels and very weak instability, a few reports of small
hail will be possible if weak convection is indeed able to
develop. This activity should dissipate by Tuesday afternoon with
dry weather returning for Wednesday and Thursday as weak midlevel
ridging builds overhead. Unsettled weather looks to return by
week`s end as a warm front lifts north towards the area and a
large upper wave ejects out of the central and northern Rockies.
With the Gulf looking to remain wide open through the weekend,
several rounds of shwrs and storms look possible unfortunately.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

VFR conditions to prevail for at least the first half of the TAF
period, if not for the entire period. The question will be how
low ceilings get when showers/thunderstorms creep into the area
Monday morning from the west, but at this point, ceilings look to
remain in the VFR category.

Winds this afternoon will continue to gust out of the WNW through
around sunset tonight, becoming light and variable overnight. Look
for winds to shift more southwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...lg



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