Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242353

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
653 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 306 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

The main challenge/concern for this forecast centers on the
potential for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold
front moves through the region. A progressive upper level trough is
expected to move through the Northern Plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday and will help to push that cold front through the area.
Moist advection ahead of this front will lead to surface dewpoints in
the upper 50 to lower 60 degree range. This will help produce perhaps
up to 1250 J/kg MUCAPE Tuesday afternoon/evening over northwestern MO
and northeastern KS. However, the timing of the front, moving through
late in the night or early Wednesday morning, doesn`t look favorable
as instability drops off during frontal passage. None-the-less, with
favorable shear and modest instability for the time of year, a few
strong thunderstorms look possible Tuesday evening and even through
the overnight. Even with the front slowing a bit, it looks like
precipitation chances will have ended across the forecast area by mid

For later in the week, there isn`t much of an airmass change with
regards to temperatures for Thursday, although it will be a much
drier airmass. But that helps set the stage for a very warm day on
Friday ahead of the next system. Another upper level system will
track well north of the area and into the Great Lakes. Strong
southerly flow ahead of this system will advect very warm
temperatures aloft  with deep mixing into that warm air. This will
lead to highs likely near 80 for much of the forecast area and
possibly into the lower to middle 80s. This will also be accompanied
by strong southwesterly winds. The frontal passage itself should be
dry and the replacing airmass will likely knock 15 to 20 degrees
from the previous day`s highs. But this basically gets the area back
to normal. Monday looks like a repeat of Friday with strong warm
advection leading to temperature in the mid to upper 70s.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Should see an increase in moisture heading northward overnight
resulting in VFR ceilings between 4-5k ft across western MO/extreme
eastern KS by the pre-dawn hours. These ceilings should spread
northeast through the day and also linger over western MO into the
afternoon. Should also see an increase in winds by the afternoon with
some gusts across western MO. Can`t rule out a few light showers in
the afternoon near the IA/MO border.




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