Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 211121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

The main concern this morning is the same issue that has plagued us
the past 3 mornings...dense fog. This fog will not be as persistent
as in past days as a warm front will lift across the area this
morning ushering in stronger southwesterly winds. Stratus that does
develop will be shallow and should burn off quickly by late morning
and the sun will grace us with its presences. temperatures will
range from the low 60s across the sun to near 50 across the north
where stratus and fog may be a bit slower to burn off. Tonight, a
upper level system that had been progged to move well to our south
has trended north in recent model runs. This will allow
precipitation to trend further north as well with areas south of a
Kirksville to Kansas City line having a chance to receive showers
Saturday night into Sunday morning. This upper level system will
push east of the area by Sunday afternoon with highs in the 40s
expected.

Upstream ridging will build over the central CONUS on Monday in
response to a upper level trough digging down the West Coast. This
will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 40s to near 50. Tuesday
the aforementioned West Coast trough will move into the eastern
Rockies forcing a cold front into the eastern Plains by Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures across the forecast area will range from the
upper 40s to near 60 ahead of this front. Showers are expected to
move into the area late in the day. Tuesday night both the EC and
GFS depict a surface low tracking along the MO/IA border. A cold
front associated with this low will move through the CWA Tuesday
night. Strong cold air advection behind this cold front will chance
rain over to snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before
coming to an end. Highs behind the front on Wednesday will be
seasonable with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Upper level
troughing is then expect to persist over the region through the rest
of the work week keeping temperatures cool with highs in the lower
30s to near 40

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 513 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

LIFR cigs/vis are expected at the terminals (IFR at MKC) thru 16Z
with vsbys reduced to 1/4SM-1/2SM in fog. Vsbys will gradually
improve later this morning with a pd of MVFR vsbys btn 16Z-18Z.
Conds should become VFR by 18Z with increasing high clouds thru
the afternoon. Mid-lvl clouds btn 7-10kft will move into the
terminals this evening. Tonight showers are expected to move into
the terminals (except STJ) btn 04Z-06Z with MVFR cigs and vsbys
reduced to 2SM-4SM in light rain and fog.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-057-
     102>105.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>032-037>039-043-044.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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