Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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858
FXUS63 KEAX 192354
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Large area of precipitation over central Kansas extending southward
into Oklahoma has made steady progress east today. Northeast low-level
flow advecting cool and relatively dry air into the area most of the
day will likely keep the threat for precipitation to the west of the
forecast area until late this evening over far eastern Kansas and
western Missouri and well after midnight over central and north
central Missouri. Best instability remains to the south of forecast
area with surface low, while upper low and associated dynamics lifts
into the northern plains. As a result thunder threat appears minimal
and should be confined to areas south of the area.

As showers end from west to east tomorrow and cool Canadian high pressure
settles into the region, temperatures will remain well below normal
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Although drier and a bit warmer
conditions are expected for Thursday and the first part of Friday
temperatures will still remain below normal.

By late Friday, another upper low will settle into the southwest
United States allowing for a return to more general southwest flow
across the region. In response temperatures should warm this weekend,
but precipitation chances will also be on the increase late in the
day on Friday. As pieces of energy eject from the upper low over the
weekend periodic chances of thunderstorms are expected. Antecedent
ground conditions due to heavy rains last weekend combined with the
forecast return of low- level moisture this weekend could lead to
more local flooding across the area. At this time the best chance for
storms appears to be on Sunday night as main upper trough ejects out
into the central Plains, however will need to monitor future model
runs and see how timing/placement evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Rain currently encompassing much of eastern KS is slowly making
its way into the four terminal areas, although is still not
looking to fall until closer to midnight. As the overnight period
progresses, ceilings and visbys will lower, with the morning hours
on Wednesday being the most impactful to aviation operations and
interests. The bulk of the rain should be moving out of the
terminal areas by midday tomorrow with perhaps just some lingering
showers left behind, along with overcast skies. Northeasterly
winds will dominate throughout much of the TAF period with winds
increasing a bit in the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...lg






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