Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 202009
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably warm, dry conditions will continue across the region
through at least Wednesday evening as upper-level ridging slides
eastward over the Plains, and weak southerly flow returns at low
levels. The main focus in the forecast period will be the only real
chance for precipitation, which will come with a trough moving into
the central U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.

The trough, still just offshore, will head eastward over the next
several days and will eventually send a surface cold front east to
west across the forecast area. The latest model trends have been to
speed this feature up just a bit, but still not expecting anything
in the KC area and points east before midnight Wednesday night, and
also not anticipating that the system will speed up any more as it
moves onshore. Around 200-300 J/kg of elevated instability may be
available across eastern KS and far western MO during the Wednesday
night - early Thursday morning timeframe so have also added isolated
thunderstorms back into the forecast before 12z Thursday. After 12z
Thursday, the potential for thunder, precipitation chances, and
possible precipitation amounts will all gradually decrease as the
front heads east and surface convergence weakens.

After the parent trough exits the region to the east, above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will likely reach the mid to even upper
70s this weekend through early next week, and lows should remain in
the upper 40s to lower 50s most nights.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mainly VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected through
the TAF period. Some patchy light fog may develop at KSTJ as winds
go calm after 06z, and any fog that does develop may be slower to
dissipate with light winds after sunrise Tuesday. Light, patchy
ground fog is also possible at MCI and IXD, but confidence was too
low to include in the TAF at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






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