Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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287
FXUS63 KEAX 200910
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

Despite little in the way of sensible weather in the short term
there are still concerns and challenges. The immediate concern will
be for dense fog through the morning hours reducing visibilities to
1/4 mile or less at times as well as drizzle. Fog will become less
dense and patchy in the afternoon however persistent stratus will
limit warming and consequently have lowered highs for today.
However, highs will still be well above normal in the mid 40s to mid
50s. This evening a warm front will lift north across the CWA as a
southwesterly LLJ noses into the area. This will bring the chance
for a few showers across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas
before midnight. Saturday, we will finally rid the area of the
stratus and with moderate WAA highs will rise into the lower 50s to
lower 60s. A cold front will move through the area Saturday night.
The frontal passage will be dry but highs on Sunday will be cooler
in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Monday, surface high pressure will move
into the area with highs remaining in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Models have been suggesting precipitation moving into the area
Monday night/Tuesday however, conditions look to remain dry on
recent model runs. And, with a omega blocking type pattern across
the CONUS believe the pattern will not be as progressive as
originally advertised. Consequently Monday night and Tuesday should
remain dry. Highs Tuesday will rise into the mid 40s to upper 50s.

Tuesday night the GFS and EC are in agreement that a front comes
through the CWA bringing rain perhaps changing to a mix during the
morning hours on Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will be a more
seasonable mid 30s to lower 40s. Precipitation will exit the area
Wednesday night however the seasonable temperatures will remain with
highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017

IFR settling back into area terminals this evening with
expectations remaining that IFR will dominate through early
afternoon. As this occurs...expect airfields to fall below
airfield mins with these trends continuing through 15 or 16z.
Trends will begin to improve late in the afternoon as drier air
begins working northward with time. As this occurs...expect a
gradual return to VFR late in the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...32



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