Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 142045
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
245 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2017

Zonal flow prevailing across the U.S. this afternoon with latest
water vapor imagery showing main shortwave of interest now working
across the northern High Plains. Before we dive into those
details, afternoon GOES-16 imagery continues to show an expansive
area of low stratus prevailing across the lwr Missouri Vly as
moisture remains trapped below a weakening subsidence inversion.
With BUFKIT soundings showing a decrease in upward vertical
motion this afternoon, drizzle should remain fairly sparse
through the evening commute. Heading into tonight, aforementioned
shortwave will track east into the upper Miss Vly which will send
a cold front over our area during the overnight hours. As this
feature nears, expect more widespread rainfall development over
the lwr Missouri Vly as forcing for ascent increases. In addition
to rain, quick look at BUFKIT fcst soundings also reveals 3-500
J/kg of MUCAPE above the 850-hPa layer, which suggests a few
embedded storms will be possible as well. Precip totals of up to a
quarter inch will be possible before activity slides to our south
and east after 12z tomorrow.

Breezy conditions look to be in store for the area on Wednesday
as high pressure starts builds in during the AM hours. Afternoon
highs won`t be too dissimilar than today`s values with mid to
upper 50s expected region wide. Slightly cooler conditions will be
possible on Thursday following the passage of a weakening cold
front during the early morning hours. Despite its passage however,
much of the area will still see afternoon highs top out in the
lower to middle 50s.

Next weather feature of interest then expected to impact the area
on Friday as a warm front lifts north early Friday morning and a
cold front passes later in the evening. Previous runs had
suggesting a slight possibility for severe weather development
ahead of the front Friday afternoon, however latest trends
suggest bulk of upper support will be pretty far removed and
from the front. Given this scenario, afternoon and evening storms
will be possible primarily east of Route 65 on Friday, with
activity coming to an end during the late evening and early
overnight. Assuming cloud cover associated with the northward
lifting warm front is able to scatter during the day on Friday,
afternoon highs may reach near 70 across southern portions of the
fcst area.

Beyond this, dry weather looks to return to the area on Saturday
as high pressure and northerly winds return. This should result in
a fall to near normal temps through the weekend with continuation
into early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST TUE NOV 14 2017

A very moist low-level airmass remains in place this afternoon
with widespread VSBY and ceiling restrictions ongoing across the
Lwr Missouri Valley. Latest fcst soundings show little in the
way of hope for improvement this afternoon with IFR trends
expected to continue through much of the overnight period. As we
head into the evening, a well-advertised cold front will begin
working through the region with some hints that embedded thunder
will be possible during the overnight hours. For now have
advertised this with a VCTS mention, however later shifts can
adjust if needed. Otherwise, expect winds to switch to the
northwest during the early morning hours with breezy conditions
anticipated through the conclusion of the fcst period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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