Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 290445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 332 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MCV currently traversing west-central MO will continue to track off
toward the northeast through this evening. As the cluster of storms
enters into a region less worked over with plentiful SBCAPE, warmer
temps (in the 80s), and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, they have
become a bit more feisty as the afternoon progresses. One of the
limiting factors for severe-strength storms is the lack of bulk
shear. These are more pulsy in nature, with rapidly increasing
heights (with a boost from decent lower-level lapse rates), some in
thanks to localized boundaries interacting with one another, but
unsustainable at higher levels for longer durations due to meager
mid-level lapse rates and the paltry bulk shear. This trend of these
storms becoming strong and perhaps marginally severe with any storm
that can find the strength to maintain itself will continue through
the remainder of this evening across the eastern third of the
forecast area. As for the rest of the forecast area, the unsettled
pattern that the region continues to be locked into will yield
mentionable PoPs through the remainder of the evening, with all
areas tapering off in PoPs (but didn`t remove mention completely
from anywhere) later tonight through the pre-dawn hours Friday.

Next impulse crossing KS overnight will be steadily heading toward
the western fringes of the forecast area by Friday morning,
increasing PoP chances as a result. LLJ ramping up overnight will
aid in growth, along with moisture still abundantly available in
the region as southerly flow continues to advect it in. Upper-
level trough axis will be pushing this impulse along but will also
provide a focus for stormy activity throughout the day on Friday.
Once again, stronger storms tomorrow will be possible, with
perhaps a few storms fighting to become marginally severe. The
limiting factor will be that the synoptic-scale dynamics will be
offset from the main storm activity, with better shear values
immediately along the front side of the trough axis itself.
Additionally, frontal boundary will be dropping southeastward on
Saturday, also ensuring that storms trek along, staying ahead of
the aforementioned better dynamics. Conditions will dry out from
NW MO to the southeastern portions of the forecast area,
respectively, on Saturday.

Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s, then will
be cooler on Saturday as they struggle to reach the 70 degree mark.
Lows tonight will range in the mid 60s with a hint of a cooldown
tomorrow night, dropping into the upper 50s across NW MO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

High pressure behind Saturday`s cold front will dry things out
Saturday night and Sunday with seasonably cool temperatures. Highs
Sunday will be in the upper 60s to near 70. Warmer and more humid
air will then spread into the area by Tuesday and Wednesday when
highs will return into the 80s. Resulting weak to moderate
instability by mid week will set the stage for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

There`s an area of developing showers and storms, in addition to the
cluster of storms moving east from western Kansas, that is all
tracking to the east. Timing this out it may get to the terminals in
the 09-10Z time frame. Instability is much weaker further east so
have only carried a SHRA VCTS group as the coverage of actual
thunderstorm activity is still rather scattered. Outside of the
activity this morning, the atmosphere is so moist that additional
showers and storms could form at almost any time. Tried to couple
these to timing of the front for this evening and to a possible
impulse coming north ahead of the front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB






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