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000
FXUS63 KEAX 201116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Today - Monday:

A weak frontal boundary was situated well to the north of the
forecast area and trails southwest into central and western Kansas.
There were a few light echos showing up in the vicinity of the front
but that is likely just virga at this time. Hi-res short-range models
show very little, if any, precipitation working its way into the
forecast area through the afternoon. This supports the trend of the
last few days in the coarser resolution models of slowing things down
and keeping precipitation chances closely tied to the front and to
the weak upper system that will eventually work its way across the
Plains today. All this means is that the precipitation onset will be
delayed until the afternoon or evening hours. Precipitation chances
continue overnight with likely PoPs expected as the upper shortwave
tracks across the area, dragging the surface front with it.

For Monday, the trends from the last few days remain with
precipitation ending from northwest to southeast through the day.
Clouds will move out in a similar fashion leaving northwestern
portions of the forecast area with clearing skies during the
afternoon. This may be enough for those areas to climb into the
lower to middle 70s. Further east, where precipitation and clouds
will linger beyond the heating of the day, temperatures will likely
remain in the upper 60s.

Tuesday - Thursday:

We`ll see dry conditions return on Tuesday as high pressure moves
across the Upper Midwest, nosing a surface ridge into the region.
This should result in temperatures being close to normal for most
areas with highs ranging in the middle 60s to the lower 70s.

Precipitation chances will increase through the day Wednesday.
Strong warm and moist advection is expected on the backside of the
upper shortwave ridge and ahead of the next upper trough. There is
some model variance but it seems with strong lift and moisture
transport into the area, there is at least a small chance for
showers/storms later in the day across northern Missouri.

Those chances will increase overnight and into the day Thursday as a
front pushes through the area ahead of strong trough. Models show a
little better agreement on the timing but the ECMWF is still fast,
moving the front through the area by the afternoon, while GFS splits
the forecast area during the afternoon. Despite the variance amongst
the models, there does appear to be a small chance for severe storms
during the afternoon hours on Thursday. Wind shear continues to
look strong, possibly in excess of 50kts in the 0-6km range and
with ample moisture being transported into the area, instability
will be stronger as well. It really comes down to the timing of the
front but overall pattern recognition suggest the potential for
severe storms.

Friday - Saturday:

Generally quiet weather is expected on Friday in the wake of the
Thursday system. But by Saturday and into early next week there are
indications that the pattern may become more active. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF have an indication of a warm front draped across the
region with precipitation developing along it Saturday afternoon and
evening. Shear would potentially be supportive of organized
convection but like with the Thursday event, the actual position of
the boundary will be crucial.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the daylight hours. Trends in the
guidance continues to show precipitation chances holding off until
late in the day, then increasing overnight as a weak upper system
begins to move through the area. That is when more widespread rain
with embedded thunderstorms will move into the region. Conditions
will begin to deteriorate with the arrival of the precipitation. But
it still looks like cloud bases will remain low VFR range.
Precipitation intensity doesn`t look heavy enough to really drop
visibility very low for any length of time so those should remain VFR
as well. Winds should persist from the south, increasing during the
day and then decreasing some overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB