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000
FXUS63 KEAX 192001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

After a quiet Saturday afternoon and evening with temps in the
upper 80s to low 90s, trends will shift toward renewed shwr/storm
potential by daybreak as a decaying convective complex overspreads
the region. Best chances for organized rainfall will across
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, however some
activity may extend as far south as the I-70 corridor. Fortunately
wind fields aloft will remain fairly weak, thus limiting the
severe weather threat. Remnant outflow boundaries may serve as an
additional focus for convective development Sunday afternoon as
highs again climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, however latest
model projections indicate any activity that does develop will
remain isolated enough to warrant low-end chance pops along and
north of I-70.

Attention remains focused on Sunday night to Monday timeframe due
to the highly anticipated solar eclipse, and additional details
are provided below. In short, its hard to find much optimism this
afternoon as all signs point towards an extensive veil of
cirrostratus cloud cover thanks to a developing push of tropical
moisture across the Nation`s midsection. Additionally, some
potential exists for an early morning decaying MCS as well, which
could serve as a source for additional cloud cover. In any event,
we`re just going to have to see how things play out with hopes
that Mother Nature can provide a break or two in the cloud cover
Monday afternoon.

Trends will have to be monitored as we head into Monday night and
early Tuesday as the next cold front is forecast to sag south
across the region. Quick look at PWAT anomalies suggest values
will be anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations above normal.
This could lead to the next round of severe storms along with
isolated flooding concerns. Beyond this, the forecast looks
increasingly dry by midweek as high pressure builds into the
region. In fact, temps look to be anywhere between 5-8 degrees
below normal by Wednesday if current forecast projections work
out.

&&

.Specifics for the Total Solar Eclipse on August 21st...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

Indications this afternoon continue to point to a less than
optimistic forecast for the solar eclipse as model trends
continue to highlight tropical moisture feeding up through the
Great Plains and Lower Missouri Vly on Monday. This upper-level
moisture advection will be occurring along the western periphery
of a ridge axis that will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico
and western Atlantic. In addition, a decaying convective complex
may be over the area early Monday morning which may be another
source for lingering cloud cover by Monday afternoon. Its possible
that increased subsidence on the backside of this feature may
result in some partial clearing at least temporarily, but its too
early to know with any certainty. What does appear certain is that
a fair amount of cirrostratus resulting from the aforementioned
tropical moisture feed should be in place across the central U.S.
Monday afternoon. Whether its thin enough for the sun to shine
through remains elusive at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the majority of the fcst period
with precip holding off until after the 09z time frame as
convection tracks east from the Central Plains during the predawn
hours. Current indications suggest this activity should be
undergoing a weakening trend as it arrives, and have decided to
just go with a VCTS mention for now. Otherwise, weak southeast
winds will persist through the fcst period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32
Eclipse...32