Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 202325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
525 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 216 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2018

For the rest of today and tonight, the area of freezing
rain/sleet/snow will shift east. The biggest challenge has been
temperatures in our eastern zones. Initially it looked like they
would cool down to or below freezing quickly. But they leveled off
and have even warmed a degree or two. Temperatures should start to
drop again this evening as cold advection combines with the normal
diurnal trend. This should change what`s left of the precipitation
into the wintry mix areas in the west have been experiencing.
However, the intensity will be decreasing so the impacts in our far
eastern zones will be much less. None-the-less, the minor
ice/sleet/snow amounts justify expanding the winter weather advisory
to the east. Will allow for the eastern and southern advisory areas
to expire at 06Z, though with precipitation ending from west to east,
cancellations will be issued as needed.

For the KC area, with significant icing ending and only minor
additional ice/sleet/snow amounts expected, will drop the ice storm
warning and replace it with a winter weather advisory through 03Z.
This will get it out through the afternoon rush hour. With
temperatures cooling there have been a number of reports of roads
deteriorating and accidents as a result. So feel it`s prudent to
keep something going through the evening commute. Precipitation
is expected to end sooner in the metro area than for ares south
and east and cancellations will be issued as needed.

Wednesday looks quiet with regards to weather. But Thursday morning
could be another wintry mess affecting the region. The setup for
this will have cold air already in place as Wednesday`s lows are in
the teens with highs in the low to mid 30s. This colder air will
initially be reinforced with a northeasterly wind before warm
advection overtakes all levels. Aloft, winds will shift to the
south as the next shot of moisture lifts northward into the area.
With relatively warmer air aloft and moisture increasing over
cold surface temperatures, it looks like another round of freezing
rain and/or drizzle in the morning, transitioning to all liquid
during the afternoon. The overnight period is a little tricky due
to a fairly uncertain temperature forecast and the possible removal
of cloud ice. But the afternoon precipitation could become
freezing drizzle in the northwestern portions of the forecast area
while the southern/southeastern portions remain above freezing
and remain liquid.

The pattern will remain active through the end of the week and into
the early part of next week as we remain in southwesterly flow
aloft and the Southwestern trough, ejects various shortwave
troughs into the middle of the country. This portion of the
forecast will assuredly change though given the variability in the
models that far out.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2018

MVFR CIGs will likely hold on for another hour or two, but
considering upstream and local observations, as well as forecast
soundings indicating dry air moving into the area, improving
ceilings will be occurring through the late evening. Expect VFR
thereafter, with deteriorating CIGs much later in the TAF period,
likely around or shortly after the current 24 hour forecast period
concludes.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ057-
     060-105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ007-
     008-016-017-023>025-031>033-038>040-044>046-053-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ029-
     030-037-043.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Leighton



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