Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201741

1141 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

The main concern in the short term continues to be the small
potential window for freezing drizzle on Friday morning. Beyond that
there will be the potential for light rain from Friday through the

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure resides over the area
with its axis extending from North Dakota southeastward through the
local area and to the Gulf coast of Alabama. This ridge will remain
in control over the area during the day as it moves very slowly
eastward through the day. This will provide for sunny skies but,
weak mixing will keep highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure will remain in control over the area early tonight before
finally shifting eastward into the Ohio River Valley. After
midnight, a southwesterly 30-40kt LLJ across the southern Plains
will begin advecting low level moisture into the region. Models
continue to trend slower with moisture returning northward into the
area. However, models typically tend to be too slow with WAA so have
moisture reaching the area by 09Z-12Z. The airmass in place will be
sub-freezing however temperatures should warm quickly as cloud cover
builds into the area. There however, may be a brief period where
precipitation may fall into freezing air. The good news is there is
no lift associated with this moisture so any precip that does occur
will fall in the form of light freezing drizzle. This will occur
mainly south of 50 highway. If the moisture remains delayed as
models suggest, temperatures would have enough time to move above
freezing on Friday and any precipitation would start as liquid
drizzle. Low level moisture will continued to be transported to the
area on the  continued low level jet. This will continue light rain
and drizzle chances on the day Friday. This will also allow warmer
air to stream into the region and highs will rise into the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Friday night as
cloud cover and continued WAA will keep temperatures in the mid 30s
to mid 40s as light rain and drizzle continue.

Saturday an upper level trough will move out of the southwestern
CONUS into Texas. A lead upper level shortwave ejecting out ahead of
this trough will produce yet another round of light rain across the
CWA. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday
night the upper level trough will move into the Ozarks providing the
best lift during the period to pick up modest rainfall totals of a
quarter to half an inch especially across the southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Storm system responsible for weekend rainfall to be exiting to our
northeast Sunday night with rain gradually coming to an end early
Monday morning. Later in the day...models continue to suggest a
secondary cold front will move south over the area as another strong
shortwave rotates over the region. A fair amount of questions still
remain to the amount of precip expected with this secondary boundary
as the GFS and Canadian-GEM remain fairly dry as compared to their
European counterpart. In any event...will leave slgt chc to chc pops
going for eastern portions of the fcst area. Beyond this...fcst
uncertainty increases dramatically as both GFS and ECMWF solutions
quickly become out of phase with one another. The former solution
maintains weak longwave ridging over the American West by midweek while
the latter shows a strong upper trough dropping through the
Intermountain West. Considering the amount of uncertainty in the
extended time frame...have held off on making significant changes
until model trends become better established.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Through tonight, VFR conditions will prevail with relatively light
winds (less than 10 knots) out of the NE, some cirrus streaming
overhead. These benign conditions are in thanks to surface high
pressure currently overhead, but will shifting off toward the east
as the day progresses. Overnight, winds will begin to increase
from out of the SE with lower-level clouds thickening by the pre-
dawn hours. For tomorrow morning, could see some drizzle at the
TAF sites, with better drizzle chances possible at IXD, MCI, and
MKC. Have gone with MVFR conditions for now until a better handle
can be gripped on how it will unravel Friday morning. One other
consideration will be how cold the temperatures in the morning
hours will be.




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