Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 230852
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014
Issued at 352 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014
A cold front has just about cleared our southern zones this morning
and with that will eliminate the brutal heat from the past two days.
Northeast winds behind the front today will help keep temperatures
at bay with much more reasonable highs in the 80s. Conditions will
remain dry as surface high pressure builds into the region from the
northern Plains. The ridge axis will build over the area tonight and
allow for overnight lows to drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
On Thursday, the upper level pattern continues to show persistent
upper level ridging from the Four Corners region into the southern
High Plains and upper level troughing across that Great lakes and
the Ohio River Valley. A upper level shortwave rounding the western
ridge is progged to move through the central Plains into the local
area. However, models are pretty consistent in keeping conditions
dry as this shortwave runs into the surface ridge of high pressure
residing over the area. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms
across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. Additional cloud
cover across northern MO will help keep temperatures in the upper
70s and lower 80s with temperatures in the mid 80s elsewhere.
Yet another upper shortwave rounding the upper level ridge across
the southwest will move into the area Thursday night. Moisture will
be on the increase out ahead of this system across the area however,
best isentropic ascent will be north of the area. There will however
still be a chance of thunderstorms across the northern CWA Thursday
night into early Friday. Friday, skies will clear and temperatures
are expected to spike again as 850mb temperatures are ranging
between 24C-28C across the area. This will translate to highs in the
low to upper 90s.
On Saturday we will begin to see a pattern shift as a strong upper
level trough digs into the Upper Midwest out of the southern
Canadian Plains. We should however squeeze out one last warm day on
Saturday as highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Saturday
night, the upper trough digging through the Upper Midwest will help
force a cold front into the area. Thunderstorms will be possible
along the front Saturday night into early Sunday.
A return to a cool July pattern will return Sunday as the upper
level trough continues to dig sewd into the southern Great Lakes
region. The EC is much deeper with this trough than the GFS and thus
much cooler. By the beginning of next week, even siding with the
warmer GFS highs will be about 10 degrees below average in the upper
70s to lower 80s on Monday and Tuesday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014
VFR conds will cont thru the TAF period. A few-sct clouds around
3-4kft will affect the terminals thru the first couple hours of the
TAF period otherwise expect just few-sct high cirrus clouds. Winds
will be out of the NNE around 10kts through this evening before
veering to the ENE and diminishing to btn 5-10kts.