Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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952
FXUS63 KEAX 272336
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Short Term (Today through Sunday):

The main concern in the short term is for the potential for
additional heavy rainfall leading to or exacerbating ongoing
flooding. There is also a lesser concern for the potential for a
few strong storms tonight.

This afternoon, a shortwave which is rounding the base of an upper
level trough, centered over eastern Colorado, is lifting northward
across sern KS/swrn MO. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have
begin to develop across the area. Storms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity as we continue into the evening hours. Shear
across the area is weak however there is a moderate amount of
instability across the area. Consequently, a few storms could become
strong but no more than perhaps an isolated severe storm is
expected. What is of a bigger concern is the continued high PWAT
values of 1.25"-1.6" that exist across the area. This will lead to
storms which will be very efficient rainfall producers. Consequently
have continued the areal flood watch through 12Z tomorrow morning,
especially considering antecedent rainfall and ongoing flooding.

This afternoon and area of severe storms is developing to the west
of the area. These storms are expected to progress eastward later
tonight and move into the in a weakened state but will provide
another shot at mod-hvy rainfall. A third round of storms will be
possible overnight as the upper level trough moves into northern
Kansas and an associated surface low lifts into the region.

The upper level trough moves into the Upper Midwest tomorrow
forcing a cold front into the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop with higher chances near the IA/MO border with
lower chances further south. The upper trough will finally lift
northeastward into the western Great Lakes and conditions dry out
for Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs on Sunday in the low to mid
80s.

Extended Term: (Sunday night through Friday):

The extended period continues to look unsettled. The upper level
pattern will look like a carbon copy of the set up and the beginning
of this week with a upper level trough over the southwestern CONUS
and southwesterly flow across the area. A series of shortwaves are
expected to eject out from the southwestern CONUS trough and move
towards the area from Sunday night through the middle of next week
continuing scattered thunderstorm chances. The upper level trough
finally moves out into the central Plains by Thursday and slowly
moves into the area by the end of the week continuing thunderstorm
chances. Temperatures should range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s
through the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Scattered showers and t-storms will be possible over the next several
hours. A line of storms across central KS will translate eastward
through the evening. Hi-res models time this line to move into the
terminals between 06-09Z. As the upper level trough moves through the
region, scattered rain showers are likely on the backside of the
trough through mid-morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...PMM



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