Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 120853
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016
Issued at 253 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016
A large area of high pressure extending from here into the Canadian
High Plains will be responsible for a return to cold air over the
weekend, and this could bring the coldest air this area has seen
since mid-January. The coldest air will arrive tonight into Saturday
so that today will see similar readings to Thursday with highs in the
upper 20s to middle 30s. Seeing quite a bit of cloud cover around the
area this morning, but this should eventually scatter out by this
afternoon when low-level height rises will build in from the north.
Low-level ridging will become centered over Iowa and into northern
MO tonight which will allow temperatures to fall into the single
digits across most of the forecast area. Some locations across far
northern Missouri could drop a few degrees below zero. This cold
airmass will remain in place on Saturday which will keep highs in the
20s and even upper teens over far northern Missouri. Winds Saturday
morning should be fairly light, but could still push wind chill vales
as cold as 10 below across northern and northeast Missouri.
A fast-moving clipper system will drop through the Upper Midwest
Saturday night into Sunday and will likely send some light
precipitation as far south and west as northern and central Missouri.
Most of this precipitation should fall as light snow through Sunday
morning before any lingering precipitation changes to rain by
afternoon. Any snowfall amounts will generally be less than an inch.
Next week will be characterized by generally dry weather and rising
temperatures as upper flow begins to flatten and eventually shift
into ridging across the Plains by mid-week. Temperatures in the 40s
and 50s Monday and Tuesday will eventually rise into the 50s and 60s
by the end of the period.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
Low level stratus should still move in for the overnight and early
morning hours, but guidance is still split on the occurrence of a
overcast/broken deck. Forecast soundings look saturated for a few
hours at the 2000 to 3000 foot level, so confidence is medium to high
that there will be some cloud bases at that level, but complete
coverage and duration are a bit uncertain. Considering that the
saturated layer looks rather thin and with winds picking up early
morning, have opted for a prevailing VFR forecast with a TEMPO for
MVFR conditions through the early to middle morning hours.