Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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260
FXUS63 KEAX 262316
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Quiet weather pattern dominating this afternoon as a sfc ridge axis
associated high pressure across the upper Mississippi Rvr Vly
extends south into our region. The presence of this feature has kept
Monday`s frontal boundary well south of our fcst area and any
associated convection confined to areas along/south of I-44. With
time tonight...aforementioned high pressure will continue tracking
east into the western Great Lakes which will allow for the front to
begin lifting north as a warm front as southerly flow is
reestablished. With little to no LLJ to work with however...and lack
of any identifiable shortwaves of interest...the passage of this
boundary should be marked with little more than a windshift and the
return of more humid conditions as Wednesday`s highs reach back
into the lower 90s across most areas. These temperatures along with
low 70 degree dewpoints should allow heat indicies to reach the upper
90s across most areas...and considering the recent values with last
week`s "heat wave"...no heat headlines are anticipated at the present
time.

Next chance for shwrs/storms looks to arrive overnight
Wednesday/early Thursday when the next upstream shortwave dives
southeast in northwest flow aloft. From this vantage point...precip
should start entering northwest Missouri around/after 03z with precip
gradually extending southeast with time. Overall threats for severe
look fairly low at this time considering marginally strong mid-level
wind fields. That said however...cannot rule out an isolated strong
cell or two...as steep low-level lapse rates may support a strong
convective wind gust or two...especially across the far northwestern
zones. Beyond this...our region becomes well-entrenched in northwest
flow aloft and lingering outflow boundaries along with the passage of
several reoccurring shortwaves all supporting continued chances for
shwrs/storms through the remainder of the week. At this venture...its
hard to pin down any specific details aside from the fact that
weather impacts on the mesoscale will certainly play a factor going
forward this week and likely right through the upcoming weekend. And
beyond this...models are now signaling the return of broad upper-
level ridging across the Heartland which should allow temperatures to
rebound to above normal early next week along with the return of
drier conditions.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with winds going
from a E to SE direction throughout the night. There is the
possibility of MVFR visibility at KSTJ in the morning, but with no
fog formation last night and a whole day of mostly sunshine it is
unlikely. Some fair weather CU may form over the area during
Wednesday afternoon around 4 kft, but little to no vertical extent is
expected with a solid cap in place.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Barham/Leighton



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