Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 261942
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
242 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A mild overnight is expected across the area with low temperatures
just a few degrees below normal high temperatures for this time of
year. This is a result of remaining mixed through the night with
warm advection persisting ahead of the next cold front. That cold
front will move through the area during the day Monday with showers
developing along it and in its wake. There is still a chance for a
few thunderstorms to develop as well but these should be fewer and
farther between due to relative weak instability. There may be some
light showers or sprinkles develop well ahead of the front as well.
Models show some light QPF in an area of strong moisture transport
and isentropic ascent. However, forecast soundings are very dry to
start out so thinking the QPF is more likely to be virga or
sprinkles. The better chances for rain will come late in the
afternoon and in the evening and by this time the front should be
halfway through the forecast area, generally from south of Kansas
City to Macon. But there may be some post frontal showers for as well
before subsidence from the passing upper trough moves in.

We`ll remain in a general northwesterly flow regime through the end
of the week. Models are in good agreement moving another fast moving
upper-level shortwave trough through the area Wednesday night/
Thursday. The low and mid levels though look very dry and there
doesn`t appear to be strong enough forcing to produce much more than
just clouds however. So for now will keep the forecast dry.

The upper-level ridge will reestablish itself further east by the
end of the week and as a result, the colder airmass that looked to
settle over the area has shifted east. So there was trend to warm
overnight lows several degrees. But this still could bring below
freezing temperatures to areas around Kirksville and into eastern
Missouri.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

Expect to see continued VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Increased southerly winds are expected through Sunday afternoon with
gusty periods likely through sunset. Could see some low-level wind
shear overnight with wind speeds increasing aloft. Clouds will begin to
sweep through the area Monday morning in advance of a cold front
pushing in from the north. Best chances of precipitation look to
commence after 18Z on Monday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh






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