Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 150503

1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Already seeing an expanding area of clouds and a few showers across
parts of NE and northern KS this afternoon where warm air advection
is increasing. While these showers may weaken later this evening, a
more solid area of rain and a few thunderstorms should expand and
push into northern parts of KS and MO late tonight into Monday
morning as WAA becomes enhanced by a developing low-level jet. Feed
of higher theta-e air within the jet will also bring some elevated
instability to the area late tonight and Monday morning, with some
models now showing MUCAPE values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Shear
and low-level forcing do not appear particularly favorable for strong
or organized storms, but could still see a few storms capable of
producing brief heavy rain through late Monday morning.

A cold front will slide in from the northwest through the day Monday
and bring a gradual drying trend through late afternoon. Airmass
behind the front won`t be quite as cold as the one that gave record
lows Saturday morning, but will still bring temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal with lows in the middle and upper 40s Monday
night. This could also yield to areas of fog toward sunrise Tuesday
similar to what happened Saturday morning.

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with post-frontal
temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. A steady warming trend will
then set in after this point with highs reaching the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Friday. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms during
this warm air advection pattern, particularly Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With dry high pressure dominating the Great Lakes and Mid
Mississippi Valley through this time, the better chances for any rain
will be across far western Missouri and westward into Kansas. Better
chances for more widespread rain will arrive next weekend with the
arrival of another cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Sct thunderstorms are dvlpg acrs SE Nebraska...hi-res model now want
to keep this activity north of the terminals. However, the NAM and
GFS still cont to bring storms into the terminals overnight so have
kept VCTS mention in the TAF from 09Z-13Z. MVFR cigs are proggeed to
move into the terminals by 13Z. Some models even hint at possible IFR
cigs tomorrow morning however opted for low MVFR at this time. MVFR
cigs will cont into the afternoon although they should lift to 2-3kft
with some showers or drizzle possible at the terminals. Toomorrow
evenng as high pressure moves in cigs will sct out. Winds will be
out of the SE tonight btn 5-10kts however, a cold front will drop
thru the terminals btn 15Z-17Z veering winds to the north around
10kts. Winds will then further veer to the NE by late afternoon.




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