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000
FXUS63 KEAX 152332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT Wed May 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

Afternoon satellite imagery shows a large cutoff trough moving
through the Southern Plains. Warm air advection ahead of the trough
continues to pump moisture north into Missouri, but convergence
along the frontal boundary wallowing across northern Missouri is
poor at best, and without any kind of triggering disturbance aloft,
capping across the region has proved too robust for what instability
is out there this afternoon. This evening the slightly closer
proximity of the trough might help with assent up and across the
boundary in northern Missouri, though with shear values rather low --
0-6KM 10 to 20 knots -- any storms that do get going will be
disorganized and sub-severe in nature. Any activity overnight might
be able to linger into the daylight hours of Thursday as the frontal
boundary slowly lifts into Iowa. However, as Thursday grows old, the
slow moving trough across the Southern Plains will still be making
its presents felt as diurnal heating keeps some instability across
the region. Potential for storms looks best across southern and into
eastern Missouri, and to our north in Iowa --near the frontal
boundary--, but might leave our area stuck in between. Have continued
to trim POPs from the afternoon hours of Thursday as a result, simply
limiting chance POPs to the eastern and southern border areas of the
forecast region for Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

Next chance for storms arrives late in the weekend as a large trough
digs into the western CONUS and begins to shift east into the Plains.
Medium range models continue to advertise this trough bringing these
storms by Sunday afternoon. The parent trough to all this activity
wont be moving through the Plains States very fast as it develops
into something akin to a Rex Block as advertised by some models. This
could keep stormy weather in the vicinity of eastern Kansas and
Missouri into Tuesday of next week, though the strongest storms
--those with the best potential for severe weather-- look to be
limited to Sunday afternoon and evening owing to the decent
instability in the warm sector ahead of the cold front that will
sweep through Monday. And, speaking of cold fronts, once again we
might find our region with below normal temperatures in the wake of
the front Tuesday and Wednesday, though lows in the 50s are all that
are expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

CU field with some vertical extent is located along a line from south
of Kirksville to just north of St. Joseph. A few thunderstorms may
develop along this line tonight however anything that does develop
will remain north of MKC and MCI. Did keep a VCTS in at STJ as short
term models indicating development in the CU field around the area.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with bkn clouds between 5-7kft
through the overnight. Models also hinting at light fog at the
terminals during the early morning hours however model boundary layer
appears too moist and additional cloud cover should mitigate that
potential. Expect a cumulus deck around 4kft to develop over the
terminals late tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon. Winds
will be out of the south tonight around 10kts and will veer to the
southeast overnight and remain out of the southeast through tomorrow
between 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...73