Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 040511
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Quiet weather will continue over the next several days as upper-
level ridging continues to dominate the pattern across the central
U.S., bringing the main focus in the forecast period to the weekend
ahead.

In the short term, a weak cold front will slide through the
region tomorrow morning, slightly reducing temperatures and veering
and increasing winds; but without any moisture, skies should remain
clear and allow temperatures to still warm into the mid to upper 60s
throughout the forecast area. Warmer temperatures are then expected
for Thursday and especially Friday when surface flow returns to the
south and thermal ridging over the High Plains edges eastward,
possibly allowing us to reach the 80 degree mark Friday afternoon.

More active weather is anticipated this weekend as an upper trough
digs into the southwestern U.S. and allows a series of shortwave
troughs to eject out into the central Plains. Showers and storms
will become increasingly likely through the weekend and into early
next week; however, severe weather chances and precipitation timing
is still very uncertain since the parent trough for any of these
little waves is still not onshore. Moisture availability will
initially be a concern with surface high pressure parked over the
region through midday Friday, but it appears that the best forcing
for storms will remain west of the region until moisture has had
several days to return to our CWA, and should be adequate. The first
concern for storms will come Saturday afternoon and evening when the
GFS -- and to a somewhat lesser extent the EC -- drapes a warm front
across portions of northern MO, which could be a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development. Scattered isentropic lift/warm sector
convection will then support continued precipitation chances through
the weekend, eventually focusing and then ending after a cold front
sweeps through Monday night or Tuesday morning. *If* the pattern does
not shift much, the primary concerns for severe weather will come
with the warm front on Saturday evening, and again Monday night along
and ahead of the cold front. Saturday`s chances could be limited by
moisture availability, a different position of the warm front, or
cloud cover in the vicinity of the warm front; and storm strength on
Monday night will depend on the timing of the cold front, the
strength of storms when they develop west of the region earlier that
evening, and how much instability can build Monday if warm sector
convection exists during the daylight hours. High temperatures this
weekend will also be moderated by precipitation chances, but the
overall pattern supports above normal temperatures especially during
the overnight periods.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A weak cold front will slide south and through northern MO overnight,
reaching the MO River around sunrise. Just ahead of the front a band
of mid level clouds with ceilings aoa 7K ft agl will last for several
hours early this morning. Isolated light showers/sprinkles possible
over northeast MO through around 10z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
northerly winds becoming gusty by late morning and diminishing
shortly before sunset.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ


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