Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 172027
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
227 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 227 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2017

Extremely mild conditions for this time of year, with highs 25 to 30
degrees above normal, and lows several degrees warmer than normal
highs, will continue through the weekend. A front will slide south
and split the area Saturday. This will cool northern Missouri
several degrees with highs in the mid 60s likely. South of the
front, highs should climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The front
will also slacken the pressure gradient so while it continues to
look warm and dry, winds look quite a bit weaker, keeping fire
danger lower than Friday and Thursday.

For Sunday, the front lifts well north of the area allowing
temperatures to climb back into the low to mid 70s for much of the
area. Surface/low-level flow will be more southerly and should allow
for increased moisture to advect into the area. So while
temperatures will be in the 70s, dewpoints should be in the low to
mid 50s, increasing humidity values and also keeping fire danger
lower than Friday or Thursday.

Models continue to show our next chance for precipitation arriving
late Sunday night and through the day Monday. As the upper ridge,
that has led to the very unseasonably warm temperatures, begins to
get impinged on the west from trough moving through the upper flow,
precipitation chances spread into the area. While it doesn`t like
widespread heavy rain amounts, it does look like widespread light
amounts are possible. Also, there will likely be isolated
thunderstorms. So the PoP forecast for likely PoPs continues to look
reasonable even though the total QPF is only a tenth to three tenths
of an inch. At this point any precipitation is welcomed.

In the wake of this system, the ridge gets flattened out. But with
the upper jet and storm track to our north, temperatures will
continue to run 20 to 30 degrees above normal into Thursday. It`s
not until the end of next week that temperatures return to more
seasonal levels. This will coincide to a shift in the upper pattern
where longwave troughing shifts eastward into central North America.
This also allows the storm track to shift southward and at the
moment the pattern looks more active for the central to eastern
Plains. While there are variations in timing and area, the GFS,
ECMWF and the Canadian, all track a strong surface low through the
region. This would likely bring snow to points north of the forecast
area, but the associated cold front will cool things down Friday.
This front may even bring a good chance for rain and even some
thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2017

VFR conditions expected to continue through this forecast. The
atmosphere remains very dry and this should ensure clear to
mostly clear conditions. Winds will be steady from the southwest,
decreasing this evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB



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