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000
FXUS63 KEAX 300935
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

Slightly above normal temperatures and dry conditions are in store
for today ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and weak surface
cold front. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s to mid
50s throughout the region, while initially breezy southwest winds
become light and variable along the surface front. The cold front
will drift southeastward across the forecast area this evening and
tonight, but with weak low-level convergence and very dry conditions
through the depth of the profile, even the probability of increased
cloud cover looks minimal, and no rainfall is expected. Highs on
Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler under light northerly winds
and slightly cooler 850 mb temperatures, topping out in the mid to
upper 40s.

Another, stronger shortwave trough will drop into the region late
Sunday night into early Monday, bringing another dose of slightly
cooler air to northeast Missouri, and also increasing cloud cover
across the region. A few light showers are possible across our far
northeast on Monday afternoon or evening, but dry air will continue
to be a limiting factor for any notable accumulation. Temperatures
will begin to warm Monday afternoon and early evening on the back
side of the trough, allowing highs to climb into the lower 50s late
in the day, especially over the south and west.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

Forecast philosophy from previous packages remain largely unchanged
with regards to next week. Above normal temperatures are still
expected ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front Tuesday
and Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Continued moisture transport and increasing large scale ascent should
result in scattered precipitation in the warm sector along and ahead
of the cold front. Instability appears negligible at this time, with
no concern for thunderstorms. A significantly colder airmass will
advect into the region behind the frontal boundary beginning
Wednesday evening, setting up another bitterly cold period Thursday
into the weekend. Models remain uncertain to whether post-frontal
precipitation will occur and other specific details such as timing
and ice introduction into a saturated layer, but precipitation
amounts, should they occur, appear on the light side at this time.
Afternoon temperatures following the cold front should reside
primarily in the 20s, with overnight lows in the teens and 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

There is a slight chance for clouds to develop around 1000 feet Saturday
morning and afternoon, but odds appear too low to include this in the
TAF. Better chances for stratocumulus will be across central and
eastern MO later in the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel