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000
FXUS63 KEAX 030524
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1124 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

Our long weekend winter storm will continue to generate a little
accumulating snow across the southern 2/3`s the forecast area
through much of the remaining afternoon hours. The closed low, that
was just over the Eastern Pacific 24 hours ago, has completely
transformed into a progressive open wave, moving through the desert
southwest today. Resulting lee-side troughing across the Plains has
helped reinvigorate the interaction between moisture advection and
frontogenetic forcing, with a resulting band of snow stretching from
the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas northeast to northeast
Missouri. Convective looking elements noted on radar across
southeast Kansas this afternoon speak to the persistent presents of
some warm air aloft, which seems reasonable given that the axis of
the parent trough to all this activity is still well off to the
west. This may allow for a little more sleet to mix in, especially
in the stronger convective elements where moderate snow is also
occurring. However, much of the sleet threat will shift south and
east of our forecast area late this afternoon as the press of cold
air, and movement of the parent trough, remove the warm air aloft.

Anticipate keeping the Winter Weather Advisory from Kansas City
northeast into Macon and Moberly till 6 PM, at which point
additional accumulations of snow should have shifted south of the
Advisory. Will likely keep the Winter Storm Warning that is still in
effect from east central Kansas through central Missouri as is. This
corridor may still receive a combination of snow and sleet through
the rest of the afternoon hours, with persistent light snow past
sunset as the overall axis of snow settles south into southern
Missouri tonight. The warning might not be needed till midnight, but
will leave it to the following shift to clear the warning as needed.

Coldest airmass ever noted in Kansas City for the month of March will
result in dangerously cold wind chill values overnight through Monday
morning. Afternoon highs today in the single digits in K.C. will
easily break the all time lowest maximum temperature ever recorded at
Kansas City since recorders where started --record we`re breaking;
11F March 4th 1978--. However, along with the record cold
temperatures will come some modest wind, and at these temperatures
--over lows below zero-- any little wind will quickly result in
dangerously cold wind chill values. All locations across eastern
Kansas and Missouri will have wind chills colder than 15 degrees
below zero by Monday morning. Therefore, will issue a wind chill
advisory for the entire forecast area for tonight through 9 AM
Monday.

Otherwise for Monday...afternoon highs will struggle, but should
make it into the teens owing to the lack of persistent cold air
advection as the surface high slides to our east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

Temperatures will gradually moderate from Tuesday into the end of
the week as the pattern undergoes some transformation. Two distinct
upper disturbances will move through the region (Wednesday,
Saturday) providing slight chances of precipitation and brief cool
downs. Overall ascent/moisture will be limited with each
quick-moving system, therefore precipitation totals are expected to
remain light. Precipitation type (rain or snow) remains in question
with variability between models handling the vertical temperature
profile. With limited cold air advection associated with these
systems, temperatures will quickly rebound. Temperatures should
creep above the freezing mark along and south of Interstate 70 by
Tuesday afternoon, with most areas reaching the mark by Wednesday.
The warmest readings during the next 7 days are currently
anticipated on Friday and Sunday, with highs warming to near normal
values in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. North winds
around 10-15 kts will gradually diminish early Monday morning, then
will become light and variable after sunrise. Scattered to broken
cloud deck with bases around 12-14 kft will shift southward, clearing
out of the forecast area by sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin