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000
FXUS63 KEAX 200254
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
954 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 306 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2017

Northwesterly flow continues to prevail over the region this
afternoon as a closed low hovers north of Michigan and ridging
builds across the West. Models continue to suggest that a shortwave
trough will move through the forecast region this afternoon,
offering light QPF readings throughout the peak temperature hours of
the day. Though chances of any amount of precipitation remains
bleak, due to weak vertical motion. BUFKIT soundings across the
region maintain a fairly dry low-level airmass, keeping just the
right amount of mid-level moisture to spawn a few isolated shwrs. In
which case the best odds for such an event to occur is in the far
northeast region.

Warm air advection is expected to become better established across
the region Tuesday as surface high pressure shifts further to our
southeast, leading to a more pronounced southeasterly flow into the
forecast region by Tuesday afternoon. A weak front will lead to a
slgt chc of storms exists Tuesday afternoon, extending as far south
as I-70 for now. Tuesday, temperatures are expected to climb,
reaching 90 degrees.

Upper level flow across the country will become mainly zonal by the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Late Tuesday night/ early Wednesday
morning, as southerly flow kicks back in, a weak surface/low level
boundary may act as focus for isolated showers and perhaps a brief,
weak storm. Otherwise, warm advection takes over in the morning and
we should see highs climb into the lower 90s. This will be ahead of
the next cold front and so by Wednesday night, the chances for
storms will be on the increase as that front starts to work towards
northwestern Missouri. Model guidance is highly variable regarding
the eventual passage of this front. The Canadian model is the
fastest, moving cooler high pressure behind the front into the area
Friday night/Saturday morning. The GFS is the slowest, lingering
precipitation into the area through Saturday morning. The ECMWF,
while it moves the front through earlier than the GFS, it produces
what may be a thunderstorm complex in the High Plains and then
tracks it into the area Saturday afternoon. Even the ensemble plots
for surface pressure and 500 mb heights are highly variable, with a
great deal of standard deviation. All this variable timing and
uncertainty with the models has a noticeable effect on the forecast.
Whenever the front actually moves through, precipitation chances
will be closely tied to its progress. But the variability of the
models with the frontal timing creates multiple periods of chance
PoPs over several days, longer than should actually occur. This
should narrow down in the coming days as models get a better handle
on the frontal timing.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 954 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2017

Mostly clear skies will be the rule through Tuesday morning before
another round of mid level clouds and isolated showers develops
during the afternoon. Shower coverage is only expected to be about
20 percent, so opted for a dry TAF for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Nunes/CDB
Aviation...Hawblitzel