Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260540
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

There a couple of concerns over the next 24 to 36 hours. The hazard
that will affect the most people through Saturday evening is the
extreme heat over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These
conditions will persist into Saturday as temperatures aloft look
very similar. There may be less mixing however so the ability to
reach our maximum potential high temperature may be limited. But
given the similar 26C to 28C 850mb air, did raise temperatures over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri a degree or two. Dewpoints look
to be similar as well and with the dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat
indices should once again rise to around 105 degrees in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. So will go ahead and issue a heat
advisory for many of the same areas as today. The exception will be
in extreme northeastern Kansas and extreme northwestern Missouri
where temperatures will be lower due to cloud cover associated with a
front in the area.

The second concern is the potential for severe convection across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
will be across northern/northeastern Missouri, where the cap will be
less and the potential greatest for a convective system to move into
that area, skirting the warmest 700mb temperatures to the south. The
rest of the area looks solidly capped, similar to this past Tuesday,
as the cold front moves through. But a convective system may form
across central to northern High Plains tonight and track to the east
southeast, potentially moving into northern/northeastern Missouri
tomorrow afternoon. There will be ample shear for this system due to
strong northwesterly upper-level flow. IF storms can move into or
even develop in the northern/northeastern portions of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon/evening, there is a good potential they would
be severe given the CAPE/shear combinations. The biggest threat looks
to be from damaging winds as a potentially strong convective system
evolves and moves east southeastward with time.

For the remainder of the weekend and then especially into next week,
cooler weather will prevail. Much of the extended portion of the
forecast, from Monday through Thursday, calls for high temperatures
in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s.  Cooler and drier
Canadian high pressure will build southward across the Plains and
Midwest ushering in the unseasonably cool weather. That high should
be the primary influence on the area through Thursday. More seasonal
temperatures should return to the forecast by Friday ahead of the
next cold front.

There may be periodic chances for showers and storms in the area later
next week. The upper levels will remain in a northwest flow pattern
and there is always the potential a weak system could provide enough
lift to produce some precipitation. The other scenario is that with
cooler air aloft, there may be enough surface heating to yield some
diurnal precipitation. Regardless, for now just can`t see going
anything higher than slight chance PoPs around 20%.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the critical portion of the TAF period with
just sct-bkn high clouds expected through the afternoon. During the
evening a cold front will begin to approach the terminals. There may
be thunderstorms associated with this front however better chances
appear to remain east of the terminals. As such, did not include a
VCTS at this time but it may be necessary for the evening hours in
future updates. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 7-12kts with gusts to
20kts at MKC thru the afternoon hours. As the cold front slowly
approaches the terminals during the evening, winds will diminish to
5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73






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