Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Issued at 404 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

The active pattern will continue as southwest flow aloft enters the
region this afternoon ahead of a broad longwave trough positioned
over the west coast. Early morning convection has stabilized the
environment, and given the lack of any near-term forcing or
triggering mechanisms in place for afternoon convection, have
reduced pops through the remainder of the afternoon and early
evening hours. Though there remains some uncertainty as to how
things will develop overnight, expecting to see storms merging into
an MCS over NW Kansas, move into the area after midnight. Lee-side
low pressure will develop by late this evening over western Kansas,
with a dryline running south into the Texas Panhandle. Models are
still in disagreement as to the timing and position of overnight
convection, though generally thinking that storms will fire
along the dryline over SW Kansas and begin to merge as they cross
into central Kansas. Several factors will be at play here, which
could lead to the potential for flash flooding, particularly for NW
Missouri. The surface low will propagate to the NE ahead the low-
level jet overnight throughout north central Kansas. This will occur
in an area of increased precipitable water values, approximately
150% of normal. An effective warm front draped over the KS/NE
border, combined with an eastward storm motion parallel with the
boundary could lead to training storms along this boundary as it
approaches NW Missouri. The aforementioned, couple with a weak
shortwave on the crest of an eastward moving ridge over this area
will produce a possible Maddox frontal type event tonight.
Considering there is some uncertainty in how things come together,
the potential is certainly present for overnight flash flooding as
the MCS enters the western CWA.

Much of what then develops Wednesday morning will depend on
overnight activity, though the environment will be more supportive
of severe potential, particularly along any outflow boundaries
present. Moderate instability and more supportive deep layer shear
compared to previous days will ripen the possibility of large hail
and strong to damaging winds Wednesday morning and afternoon. This
will again depend on how stable the environment is and whether or
not it can recover from morning convection.

Similar conditions will persist Thursday as the surface low
approaches north central Kansas by Thursday morning. Upper-level
dynamics will continue to support severe weather chances Thursday
afternoon, particularly for areas north of I-70 as 0-6km shear
values approach 40+ knots. The upper-level trough will then approach
western Kansas by Friday before weakening as it approaches SW Iowa
into Saturday. As a result, thunderstorm chances will continue into
the weekend, with perhaps a break in the activity Sunday as mid-
level ridging begins to build over the area. The active pattern will
then continue early next week as another deepening trough settles
over the southwestern CONUS.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VFR conditions expected through the 06z time frame with plenty of
convection expected upstream across the Central Plains. After
06z...latest high-res models show Central Plains convection
congealing into an MCS and sliding east across the Kansas City Metro
during the predawn hours. As a result...have inserted TEMPO groups at
all 4 locations to account for this possibility. After initial band
of convection slides east...low MVFR (possibly IFR) cigs will
overspread the terminals before categorical improvements occur later
in the morning. Tonight`s fcst has marginal confidence as upstream
trends will largely dictate convective potential downstream across
the Lower Missouri Vly. Will make updates as necessary.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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