Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 140523
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1123 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 347 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2017

Main change to forecast is to delay timing of initial northward
progression of light precipitation this afternoon through tonight. A
dry sub-cloud airmass with east-northeasterly winds has been slow to
erode across much of the area thus far, with the focused plume of
elevated warm air advection and moisture transport remaining just to
the south of the forecast area, where a corridor of precipitation
has remained for much of the day.

A gradual shift northward of this moisture transport is expected
this evening into Saturday. The northern edge of precipitation is
likely to flirt with the Interstate 70 corridor tonight into
Saturday. With elevated warm air above the surface on the order of 4-
7C, precipitation will all melt prior to reaching the subfreezing
surface as it descends through the warm layer. Precipitation amounts
during this period will be generally light and periodic, with a
trace to up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation expected along
and south of Interstate 70.

The primary concern continues to reside in the Saturday night into
Sunday timeframe when the most significant ice accumulations will
occur across the forecast area. Widespread light to moderate
precipitation is expected to overspread the area beginning Saturday
evening and night, with the heaviest amounts occurring in a 12-hour
period between midnight and noon. Total ice accumulations during the
multi-day event will range from one-quarter of an inch across
northern Missouri to one-half inch with locally higher amounts
across east central Kansas into west central Missouri.

Surface temperatures will gradually warm above freezing Sunday
afternoon into the evening, with the freezing line lifting from
south to north. As temperatures warm closer to 32 and above,
freezing rain will transition to rain across the area. All freezing
rain should conclude over northern Missouri by early Monday morning,
with widespread precipitation still possible Monday into Monday
night as surface low pressure moves across the forecast area.
Thereafter, the work week ahead looks dry with above normal
temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2017

Freezing rain moving thru the terminals will exit the terminals by
07Z-08Z however some lgt freezing drizzle may still be possible
thru 12Z. Otrw...the TAF pd should be mainly dry with just perhaps
a few pds of freezing drizzle. MVFR cigs will be the rule thru
the TAF pd with perhaps a brief pd of low end VFR cigs during the
afternoon. Winds are out of the NE btn 5-10kts but will shift to
the north btn 5-10kts overnight. Winds will then veer back to the
NE btn 5-10kts during the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ057-060.

     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday
     night for KSZ025-102.

     Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST Sunday night for KSZ103>105.

MO...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for MOZ033-038>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday
     night for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>024.

     Ice Storm Warning until midnight CST Sunday night for MOZ025-
     028>032-037.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...73



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