Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281111

611 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Issued at 358 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Another active overnight period as a large MCS has developed
across SWRN IA/ERN NE/extreme NW MO/and into NRN KS. This developed
as a 30-40KT SWLY LLJ developed and overrode a stationary front
extending from Manhattan, KS to Clinton, MO to Farmington, MO.
These storms will continue to move NEWD during the morning hours and
as such continued showers and thunderstorms will be likely across
northwestern Missouri on the eastern periphery of the MCS. The good
news is the better moisture is pooling to the north and west and it
appears northwestern Missouri, which is under a flood watch, will
not receive an extended period of heavy rain. A surface low has
develop across swrn NE and this low will move NEWD during the course
of the day. This will pull the stationary front laid out across our
CWA northward today as a warm front. This warm front is expected to
lift near the Highway 36 corridor by this afternoon. The best
chances for storms will be along and north of this front during the
afternoon hours. Although cloud cover for today and its affects on
temperatures will be challenging, with the warm front lifting north,
temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s south of
highway 36 and to the low to mid 80s north.

This morning an upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery
moving into the eastern Rockies. This trough will move out into the
western Plains today forcing a cold front across the Plains through
the day today. This cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late
tonight. Thunderstorms will develop across Kansas this
afternoon/evening ahead of the front. These storms will move east
tonight and bring showers and thunderstorms to the western CWA.
Friday and Friday night will be the wettest period in the short term
as the upper level trough moves into the eastern Plains and forces
the slow moving cold front through the area. Any severe potential
will hinge on whether or not we can destabilize during the afternoon
hours. However, early morning convection and residual cloud cover
may keep conditions stable. If we do manage to destabilize Friday
afternoon/evening, the main threats would be wind and small hail.

Models continue to be more progressive and weaker with the upper
level trough, moving through the forecast area earlier in the day on
Saturday. Have chance POPs across the eastern CWA for Saturday
morning but storms should exit the CWA for the afternoon. Highs
Saturday behind the cold front will be in the low to mid 80s.

Models are in general agreement in the extended period with the
exception of Sunday. The GFS is depicting another weak shortwave
moving through the area quickly behind the upper level trough. This
shortwave would bring another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The EC and GEM do not show this feature and keep
Sunday dry. Have keep slight chance POPs across the area t account
for the GFS solution although the EC/GEM is preferred.

Models are in fairly good agreement beyond Sunday. The EC/GEM/and
GFS all show a strong upper level trough moving into the northern
and central Plains by Sunday night forcing a cold front into the
area. All these models develop thunderstorms over the area Sunday
night and into Monday. With model agreement high have left the high
chance and likely POPs in the forecast for this time period. Models
then weaken this trough as it move northeastward into the Upper
Midwest Monday night. With the main upper level support well north
the cold front that moves into the area Sunday night and Monday will
stall across/or just south of the forecast area. this will continue
storms chances into Monday night and Tuesday with the best chances
of storms across the southern CWA. Models then depict a weak upper
level shortwave moving into the area Tuesday night providing another
round of thunderstorms before finally kicking the stalled front
south of the area by Wednesday. Temperatures in the extended period
will be seasonable with highs mainly in the ow to mid 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Lgt rain showers are dvlpg in the VC of the terminals this morning.
There may be a brief shower at MCI and STJ thru 14Z but, with no
impact to aviation. Otrw...expect bkn mid lvl clouds thru the morning
before sct-bkn cu around 6kft develops this afternoon. A cold front
will begin to approach the terminals after midnight. Some models
bring thunderstorms associated with this cold front into the
terminals as early as 08Z while other hold pcpn off til aft the TAF
pd. As such have introduced a VCTS at 08Z to account for the earlier
solution. Winds will be out of the SSE to S btn 5-10kts thru the TAF pd.




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