Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260946
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ





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