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000
FXUS63 KEAX 032323
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Tonight/Tuesday...An unseasonably cold airmass remains in place as
of this afternoon, with surface temperatures primarily in the teens.
Snow/sleet cover remains commonplace across most of the forecast
area, with the lone exception over a narrow strip from Nevada to
Sedalia to Columbia where visible satellite shows quickly eroding
snow/sleet cover. Cold air advection has concluded over the area, and
temperatures tonight will remain chilly, but not as bitterly cold as
last night, with lows between 5 to 10 degrees above zero. A warm axis
of H85 temperatures will overspread the region on Tuesday, with the
remaining cold air mass further modified. Snow cover will cut down
maximum readings a few degrees, but still anticipate areas
along/south of Interstate 70 to reach/exceed the freezing mark.

Wednesday...Attention turns to an amplifying shortwave trough
projected to move through the Central Plains into the Lower
Mississippi Valley region on Wednesday. Models remain somewhat
inconsistent from run-to-run with the strength of the upper system
and subsequent forcing. Currently, strong/deep ascent through a
saturated layer and frontogenetical forcing is expected to move
through the forecast area, albeit a somewhat narrow 6-hour window.
During this period, forecast soundings support the precipitation type
as all snow. Model generated QPF amounts vary, with 0.05 liquid
equivalent as a rough consensus. Surface temperatures will also be
challenging with regards to prediction (clouds/precipitation) and
affects on snowfall accumulations, with readings eventually warming
into the middle 30s. There remains considerable uncertainty to the
forecast, with a preliminary estimate of up to one-half inch of snow
possible. Again, changes in strength of the upper system and the
other aforementioned variables will play a role in the total snowfall
accumulations, if any. In addition, there is some concern for a brief
window of freezing drizzle prior to the top-down saturation that
would yield snow. The sfc-H9 layer shows near saturation by early
Wednesday morning with increasing/persistent low-level ascent, and
this may favor some light freezing drizzle before the brief snow
event. Both the snow and freezing drizzle potential will be further
examined in subsequent forecasts.

Thursday into Monday...Upper ridging and warming H85 temperatures
will yield a gradual warming trend on Thursday into Friday. Highs
should reach the upper 30s to upper 40s on Thu, with middle 40s to
middle 50s by Fri afternoon. A cold front associated with an
approaching upper trough will move through the area on Friday
evening, ushering in cooler conditions for Saturday. A chance for
precipitation will exist Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation
type remains uncertain with model guidance producing vertical
temperature profiles supporting either rain or snow, also time-
dependent during the event. Precipitation should end by Saturday
night, with warmer weather expected Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Scattered clouds with bases around 15 kft will drift through the area
this evening into the overnight hours, then should gradually clear
out Tuesday morning. Winds will remain out of the south southeast at
around 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin