Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 171732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

Another very active day shaping up for the region as multiple
concerns exist this morning with respect to excessive heat and
redeveloping severe storms later this afternoon. Before diving
into those details, severe MCS that brought widespread damage to
the Lower Missouri Valley continues tracking into southwest
Missouri this morning, with residual elevated storms north of the
expanding outflow bringing isolated severe hail reports to north-
central Kansas. Available high-res model guidance shows all
activity rapidly tracking southeast this morning, thus setting
the stage for clearing skies later this morning and the arrival of
the warmest temperatures of the season as highs climb well into
the middle 90s this afternoon.

Despite the storm activity this morning, aforementioned clearing
along with added boundary layer moisture from this morning`s
rainfall will lead to downright oppressive conditions this
afternoon. Latest model guidance indicates dewpoint temperatures
will hover in the middle to upper 70s today, which combined with
highs in the mid 90s, will lead to heat indices ranging from
105-113 degrees. Considering this morning`s rainfall and various
model solutions which show of a well-defined theta-e ridge
extending across our area, have elected to upgrade the heat
advisory to an excessive heat warning for the KC Metro and points
immediately to the south. Its going to be a warm one but
fortunately cooler air is not too far away. We just need to get
through one more busy night before we see some relief.

Moving on to the severe threat, today`s environment looks
potentially volatile considering the moisture availability and
the expectation that an elevated mixed layer will be firmly in
place by afternoon. In fact, latest GOES-16 low-level water vapor
imagery showing the initial signs of midlevel drying working east
from northeastern Colorado this morning as midlevel flow begins
to increase in advance of well-defined shortwave trough currently
digging across the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Steep
midlevel lapse rates resulting from the EML, along with increasing
PVA in advance of the aforementioned wave and convergence along
the southward sagging cold front will set the stage for
rapid convective development later today. Quick look at several
BUFKIT soundings from across the area shows MLCAPE values in
excess of 6000 J/kg, with deep layered shear values more than
supportive of storm maintenance. Bulk shear vector orientation
should largely be parallel to the incoming cold front, suggesting
a multicell linear morphology as convection becomes organized
along the front later today. Activity should initially develop
near the Route 36 corridor before expanding southeast with time
through the early evening and overnight hours. Considering the
amount of instability available, large hail and strong winds will
likely be the main threats, with a limited tornado threat in
response to along parallel 0-3 km bulk shear vector orientation.
If there`s any silver lining, its that much of the area will see
another healthy round of rain which much of the region can surely
benefit from.

High pressure to quickly build into the region on Sunday with
cooler temperatures expected as north winds prevail. In fact,
highs Sunday afternoon will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s,
a far improvement from today`s values. Dry weather to then
continue through Wednesday, before the next storm system brings
the next chance of rain to the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Little rest for the weary...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

The main impact with this forecast period will be with the
continued likelihood of afternoon and evening thunderstorm
potential. Storms should fire along a southeastward progressing
cold front just north of Kansas City and present a three to four
hour window of strong storms, with periodic reductions to
visibility and ceilings possible, in addition to gusty winds.
Lingering storms and showers may continue into the early
overnight, though conditions will quickly improve heading into
Sunday morning, with dry conditions expected beyond.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ020>023-030>032-
     038>040-044>046.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh



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