Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 010438
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015
Issued at 314 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015
Tonight - Saturday...
An upper level ridge axis extends from northern Mexico through the
western Great Lakes and will move little over the next week while an
upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest stalls over the
western U.S. This in effect will maintain broad southwesterly flow
from the Southern Rockies through the region. Any frontal boundary
that makes it into the Plains will likely be hampered shifting
eastward as the flow aloft will parallel the boundary. Bottom line is
persistence will likely be the best forecast.
Weak isentropic ascent on the 310-315K levels plus the proximity of
the southwesterly low-level jet could allow some elevated convection
to track across far northwest MO late Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning and again Wednesday night. However, confidence is low on any
activity making it into the region so went with slight chance PoPs.
Bottom line...a dry and seasonably warm/humid period.
Sunday - Monday...
Medium range models bring the best chance for convection during this
period. However, the 12z ECMWF is now less aggressive in advancing
an upper level trough and associated cold front eastward as fast as
the GFS. While using a blended approach on PoPs was used to generate
40-50% PoPs by Sunday night/Monday am thinking the slower trend will
necessitate lowering PoPs in later forecasts.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Steady winds
out of the south will increase Tuesday afternoon with gusts just over
20kts at times. MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Tuesday morning is
trending less likely, but will hold on to the previously forecast
chance for development for the time being as conditions do still
favor patchy fog as winds decrease locally overnight.