Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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636
FXUS63 KEAX 060516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1116 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

An upper low will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley
overnight, but influence will be limited to high clouds moving
through the area as precipitation will remain well to the south and
east of the CWA. A cold front currently located over central
Nebraska will make steady progress and move through the forecast
area tonight, beginning a markedly colder period for the remainder
of the week. Latest model runs have suggested a few sprinkles may be
possible with the frontal passage overnight, although confidence is
relatively low at this time. If this does occur, surface
temperatures should still be a few degrees above freezing, so no
impacts would be expected. Surface high pressure builds into the
area on Tuesday with relatively quiet weather conditions. Highs will
be cooler in the middle 30s to lower 40s, even with mostly sunny
skies.

Concern turns to snow potential and cold temperatures in the middle
to late portion of the work week. The biggest change to the new
forecast is to reduce snowfall amounts on Wednesday. Models have
trended with less QPF in response to weakening the ascent and mid-
level baroclinic zone over the area. Operational guidance is
relatively consistent with the timing, with the daylight hours
Wednesday as the most likely window for accumulating snowfall.
Forecast soundings show vertical temperature profile to support snow,
but considerable low-level dry air to overcome, so areas without the
preferred snow growth conditions will have a difficult time
saturating, resulting in the potential for a sharp gradient between
accumulating snow and flurries. Currently, up to one-half of an inch
of total snow is expected along and south of the Interstate 70
corridor. Temperatures will be nearly 20 degrees below normal on
Thursday, with highs in the 20s and lows in the lower teens. The cold
airmass will persist Wednesday into Friday before temperatures
gradually moderate during the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016

VFR conds should prevail through the forecast period however a brief
period of MVFR can not be ruled out early this morning. A cold front
is going to drop through the terminals by 07Z which will shift winds
to the northwest between 10-15kts. Behind this front there is a
stratus deck btn 4-5kft however sct to ocnl bkn cigs around 2kft are
also being reported. Those MVFR cigs are expected to remain north of
the terminals by the possibility does remain that they could make it
this far south. Status should move out of the terminals by 13Z-15Z
with just sct-bkn mid to high lvl clouds expected thru the remainder
of the TAF pd. Winds will remain out of the NW thru the day btn
10-15kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will subside this evening to btn
5-10kts while backing to the WNW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...73



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