Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 232059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Issued at 304 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

So far, other than some showers and a few isolated thunderstorms that
popped up throughout the first portion of the day, the weather has
thus far been relatively quiet. However, there is continued
anticipation of convection amping up as the night progresses.
Currently looking at the potential for two main rounds of storms this
evening into the overnight hours. The first would be this afternoon
into the evening hours, thanks to the combination of some
destabilization plus an increasing LLJ, although lapse rates have
been paltry. This LLJ will continue to intensify as the night
continues, opening up the door for round two of storms to occur
around midnight through as late as the pre-dawn hours. Of particular
note, all of the models seem to be struggling resolving what`s going
on and what`s to occur so haven`t been able to hone in on one
particular model. As for the primary threats, wind would be at the
top of the list should storms go severe, although hail and a brief
spin-up aren`t out of the question.

Another severe weather threat exists for late tomorrow as a frontal
boundary approaches from the north and west. Increasing shear values
with a potentially even more unstable airmass ahead of the front
yields a bit more of a concern for the severe potential tomorrow. The
limiting factor would be the timing as model runs have been slowing
down the front`s progression. Primary hazard looks to again be gusty
to perhaps damaging winds but there is the added threat of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall creating a localized flood threat,
particularly if storms train over the same areas and where flash
flood guidance might be lower.

For the remainder of the forecast period, couldn`t feasibly remove
PoPs from any period as the region remains locked in an unsettled
pattern. The aforementioned frontal boundary stalls out across
central to southern MO Thursday before washing out on Friday. With
ample moisture flowing in under southerly to southwesterly flow into
the weekend and the forecast area sitting on the periphery of ridging
to the east, the door is left open for multiple days of convection
chances for the forecast area, although not everyone will of course
see rain everyday. Temperatures generally speaking will remain near
or slightly below normal for this time of year, especially under any
sort of cloud cover that may limit daytime heating. Wednesday looks
to be the warmest day of week for the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area with these locations sitting within the warm sector
ahead of the front.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Challenging forecast for this TAF period given that the area could
see two rounds of storms tonight, in addition to impacts caused by
lowered ceilings and gusty winds outside of storm activity. Some
storms may have the potential to become strong to severe with gusty
winds as the primary hazard, although cannot rule out a tornadic
threat. The first round is mentioned in this TAF issuance with the
TEMPO group at all four terminals but the second round will need to
be evaluated and potentially added for the next TAF issuance.
Currently, the second round appears to occur around midnight through
about 4am, give or take an hour on either end. As mentioned, lowered
ceilings persisting throughout much of the TAF period at the
terminals, plus breezy conditions this afternoon will be impactful to
aviation interests.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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