Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 120502
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Below normal temperatures will be the main story in the short term
as chilly 850 mb air filters down into the region and cloud cover
continues to hold afternoon temperatures down. The main upper trough
associated with Wednesday`s cold frontal passage will slide over the
region tomorrow, pushing another slug of low stratus and drizzle
down into the forecast area, and fueling a few light rain showers
across at least the northern half of the CWA. The upper trough will
then depart as surface high pressure slides into the region on
Friday night, allowing surface temperatures to plummet to near
record lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s throughout the forecast
area.

High pressure will linger over the area through Saturday, but more
sunshine and the departure of the coldest air aloft will allow highs
to reach the lower to middle 60s throughout the forecast area.
Return flow on the back side of the high and zonal flow aloft on
Sunday will continue the trend of increasing temperatures, bringing
highs back into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Another frontal boundary will slide into the area on Monday, but
without a surge of cold air nearly as strong as what is coming into
the area late this week. This front will send temperatures into the
low/mid 50s Monday night with highs on Tuesday in the upper 60s to
near 70. Weak elevated instability ahead of and along the front will
be supportive of a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon but
ingredients do not appear favorable for severe storms or widespread
heavy rain.

Frontal boundary will remain stretched across the Ozarks through
Tuesday night and will then return back into northern Missouri by
Wednesday afternoon. This will bring a return to warmer temperatures
by mid week with some areas reaching 80 degrees by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MVFR cigs are expect through tomorrow evening with a period of IFR
cigs btn 11Z-15Z at STJ with light fog reducing vsbys to 5SM. There
will be a period of light rain at the terminals btn 15Z-21Z with
contd MVFR cigs but no vis restrictions are expected in pcpn. Cigs
tomorrow afternoon will lift into high MVFR but high pressure moves
into tomorrow night and skies become clr. Winds through the TAF
period will be out of the NNE btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73





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