Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 191742
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1142 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
Issued at 355 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
Initial concern is the recent development and expansion of patchy
dense fog observed across southeast Kansas into western Missouri.
Observations have fallen to under one mile in a few locations.
Reports have initially indicated the fog is relatively shallow, and
satellite imagery hints at shallow nature. However, if this fog
becomes deeper and more widespread, an advisory may be needed.
Otherwise, any fog will mix a few hours after sunrise with another
warm day expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Upper trough over the Four Corners region will eject into the Plains
this evening into Monday, providing our area a chance for
precipitation. This event by no means will bring a lot of rainfall,
in fact less than one-quarter inch on average is anticipated, but
should provide at least some light rain for the area. Models
continue to split apart the upper trough, with one piece of energy
tracking into the Dakotas with the other lingering across the
Southern Plains and Gulf region. This glancing window of large scale
ascent and forcing along a frontal slope will be the main mechanism
to generate precipitation in our area, with a non-zero chance that
some areas across the western half of the CWA fail to measure more
than a few hundredths of an inch. The Pacific cold front moves
through Monday evening, ending precipitation chances but doing
little to cool temperatures on Tuesday.
The continued unseasonably warm temperatures look to persist through
late in the work week. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s and lows
in the 40s and 50s can be expected today through Thursday - some 20
degrees or more above average. The next chance for precipitation
remains on track for Thursday into Friday. A warm front is expected
to stretch just north of Interstate 70 on Thursday, with elevated
convection developing over northern Missouri. Surface low pressure
will follow along the warm front, and a mid-level dry slot is
projected to move into the CWA. The end result is that the majority
of precipitation with this system may reside north of the Interstate
70 corridor, including the potential for wrap-around wintry
precipitation. Temperatures closer to seasonal levels return Friday
into the weekend.
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
Currently VFR conditions remain throughout the area with a MVFR
ceiling over central Kansas. Currently this ceiling appears to be
staying to the west, but there is a chance this afternoon the edge
pushes into the region for a couple hours. Currently no MVFR
conditions are in the TAFS until overnight when a frontal boundary
pushes through. Ceilings at this time will drop down to MFVR with
light rain showers and the possibility of isolated thunderstorms
occurring in the area so VCTS is in all TAF locations. Some
guidance has the ceilings dropping below 1000ft at times behind
the boundary, but this far out 1000ft seemed appropriate.