Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 060806

306 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

Today through Tomorrow:

A weak shortwave accompanied by weak isentropic ascent on the 305K-
310K surface this morning is providing enough lift to squeeze out a
scattered sprinkle or very light shower. This shortwave will shift
east by mid-morning as isentropic ascent weakens with showers coming
to an end. We will however be left with another cloudy but mild day.
This will be thanks to upper level ridging strengthening across the
area in response to a upper level trough digging into the
southwestern CONUS. Expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Wednesday, a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area
and this should help to finally scour out the clouds by the
afternoon. Continued upper level ridging over the region coupled
with the afternoon sun should help temperatures warm into the mid to
upper 70s.

Tomorrow night - Thursday night:

Tomorrow night a upper level shortwave will dig into the northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will force a trailing cold
front into the central Plains. Showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm out ahead of the front will move into northern Missouri
and northeastern Kansas after midnight. This front will then slowly
progress southeastward across the forecast area on Thursday.
Forcing will be weak along this front and models are suggesting
there will be dry air in place in the lower levels. As such, showers
may be more scattered in nature on Thursday and consequently have
reduced PoPs from the 50% range to the 40% range. The cold front
will clear the southern CWA by Thursday night with just showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm remaining across the southern CWA.

Friday through Tuesday:

This period looks to remain dry with a warming trend. Friday will be
the coolest day of the forecast period as cool high pressure builds
into the area behind the departing cold front. Expect highs in the
mid to upper 60s. However, by Saturday upper level ridging over the
central Rockies begins to shift east into the region. Height rises
will help highs rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Sunday, the
upper ridge shifts into the local area with WAA developing. This
will help temperatures to move well above normal into the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Monday an upper level trough will begin to flatten out
the ridge over the central CONUS and send a surface cold front into
the area. However, continued warm air advection out ahead of the
front will allow temperatures to reach into the low to even mid 80s.
Temperatures on Tuesday behind to front will be a bit cooler but
still well above normal in the mid 70s to lower 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

MVFR ceilings have eroded from west to east with most of the KC area
seeing VFR conditions at this time. However, there are some
indications that MVFR could redevelop later tonight, possibly below
2000 feet. Confidence on this happening is not high though, so will
monitor trends to see if MVFR needs to be removed from TAFs
overnight. It`s also possible that fog could develop toward sunrise
if clouds continue to lift.




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