Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160444
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 WERE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL YET NICE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SLOWLY MIX NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, I MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND BREEZY AS THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HRCN ODILE. SUNDAY SHOULD
DRY OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






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