Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 170817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Main concerns for today will be temperatures in the wake of a cold
frontal passage and rain chances as a shortwave trough pushes east
into the forecast area. Temperatures will be dependent on the amount
of cloud cover and any precipitation-associated cooling that occurs
this afternoon, especially as northerly winds and thus any cold air
advection will begin to wane during the early to mid afternoon.

Low- and midlevel dry air is fairly homogeneous across the CWA this
morning, and will be difficult to overcome for measurable precip to
occur this afternoon. Pacific moisture currently associated with the
approaching shortwave trough will mostly filter southeast with the
primary 700 mb low this afternoon, but most models are showing a
weak secondary shortwave trough ejecting northeast into the southern
half of the CWA and carrying with it a narrow finger of moisture in
the 700-800 mb layer. General model consensus including high-res
guidance is to keep most precipitation along and south of a line
from the southern KC metro to Macon, and even in these areas, total
precipitation should only be a few hundredths due to the weakness of
the incoming moisture and existing dry air. High temperatures will
be locally a few degrees cooler where very light precipitation and
thicker cloud cover is expected, but highs should still reach 50 to
55 degrees in most locations.

Any rain this afternoon will quickly diminish this evening as weak
high pressure filters in behind the departing system. Lows tonight
into Friday morning may fall into the mid to upper 30s under weak
surface flow, but widespread temperatures at or below the freezing
mark are not anticipated. A warming trend is expected Friday through
Saturday as southerly flow returns and an upper level ridge builds
across the central CONUS, bringing highs into the mid to upper 60s
for Friday and the mid to upper 70s by Saturday. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday into Monday as a
surface front stalls near the northern CWA border and slowly sinks
southward, holding temperatures down a bit for Sunday and Monday. By
Tuesday, above normal temperatures will return with readings near or
in excess of 80 degrees expected Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front has moved southeast of the terminals this evening and
will continue into southern MO where it will stall tomorrow. MVFR
ceilings will spread across parts of northern MO overnight, nicking
KSTJ at the beginning of the forecast period. Currently believe the
MVFR clouds will stay just northeast of KMCI/KMKC. Areas of light
rain are expected to advance northeast into west central MO by late
Thursday morning. However, the rain is likely to remain just south of
KMKC.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ






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