Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 051547
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
947 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE
than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track
the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to
this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the
dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range
models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albiet
diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing
moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add
chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with sligth
chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will
monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than
anticipated will look to raise PoPs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with a gradual
lowering of high to mid level cloudiness throughout the day. Main
concern is potential for MVFR/IFR window between 09-13Z Saturday
with either scattered stratus and/or drizzle. Have not included into
forecast with high uncertainy and being end of the period, but will
need to be closely monitored.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair


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