Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151820

120 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Issued at 314 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

In the short term, the only forecast challenge will be temperatures
as we return from near record lows this morning to strong southerly
flow and mid-level ridging by Wednesday. Temperatures will initially
be a bit slow to rebound this morning as a surface ridge drifts
slowly out of the region; however, light southerly flow by this
afternoon and ample sunshine should allow temperatures to recover
into the 50s to near 60 along our western border. Southerly winds
will be enhanced by an approaching clipper system on Wednesday,
allowing temperatures to top out in the 60s to possibly near 70 in
the west. Gulf moisture will also begin to return to the region on
Wednesday, and should dampen fire danger concerns associated with
the breezy conditions during the afternoon hours.

The aforementioned clipper system will drag a cold front through the
CWA by mid-morning Thursday, dropping temperatures gradually ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. That trough will lift a broad
band of precipitation into the region during the daylight hours
Thursday, but continued southwest flow aloft and a quick departure
of the clipper system should keep precipitation type all rain over
the forecast area. However, the cold frontal passage and increased
cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 40s across most of the
area, except in the far southeast. Total rainfall amounts are not
expected to exceed a quarter to a half inch in most locations with
Thursday`s system.

Spring will return in earnest this weekend into early next week,
with warmer temperatures and some rain/t`storm chances Saturday
night through Sunday night as a shortwave trough pushes eastward
through the region. Beyond this morning, no widespread frost/freeze
is expected in the next 7 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 112 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Primary concern will be with the increasingly strong southerly winds
developing later tonight and whether or not LLWS will become an
issue. A strong southwesterly low level jet will form from KS through
western IA tonight and shift eastward into western MO by sunrise. A
nocturnal inversion will set up by mid evening but most models
indicate the region below the inversion will be well mixed and
preclude the development of LLWS. Local effects resulting in a
decoupling of winds at KMKC and KSTJ do support LLWS so will mention.
Wednesday will be a very windy day with VFR conditions.




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