Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 182347

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
547 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Issued at 307 PM CST WED JAN 18 2017

The low stratus that had affected much of the area has steadily
eroded in the last few hours over eastern KS and western MO. North
central and northeastern MO should continue to see the stratus
linger. For tonight, the steep temperature inversion will return
as the boundary layer cools. With southerly flow allowing moisture
to continue to advect north, thinking low stratus and fog will
redevelop over the area. Seeing how the clouds did everything but
what was forecast today though, there is some uncertainty. So have
continued mention of fog in the grids but will hold off on any
kind of dense fog advisory. Fortunately, it looks like
temperatures should stay above freezing so if widespread/dense fog
develops, there should not be an issue of icing and slick roads.

The other issue over the next day to day and a half will be with the
the large upper low slowly tracking to the northeast. As this wave
moves northeast, it seems to take on a negative tilt. This has a few
effects on our sensible weather. Mainly, with it becoming more
dynamic, it looks like it`s able to draw more moisture and warmer
temperatures north into the area. This leads to some instability,
particularly for the eastern half of the forecast area. So this may
result in a few thunderstorms, or at least a few rumbles of thunder
over the eastern half of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon.

For the weekend, southerly flow will persist, allowing temperatures
to remain above normal. For Saturday, the area may climb into the
upper 50s as a weak upper wave passes to the north. That wave will
pass a front through Saturday night into Sunday so temperatures
should be about 10 degrees cooler. There will also be another wave
passing to our south so ample cloud cover will aid in keeping
temperatures cooler than the previous day. This active pattern looks
to continue into next week with one large upper wave digging into the
southwest and leading impulses moving overhead. At the moment, it
looks too warm to support much/if any wintry precipitation, even
when the main upper tough moves into the Plains during the middle of
next week.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST WED JAN 18 2017

For this evening`s aviation package, have elected to back off
timing on reduced visibilities based on latest windspeed and
dewpoint depression trends. That said, still believe we`ll see
another early morning of IFR restrictions at area terminals as
weak winds combine with a moist low-level airmass. Its possible
that alternate min and potentially airfield min thresholds will
be reached near or shortly before sunrise. Trends will begin to
improve towards 15z with a return to VFR anticipated by 18z.




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