Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 291733
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A strong upper-level shortwave trough was tracking across the
northern Plains early this morning. Its associated cold front was
tracking across Nebraska and there was light echoes showing up on
radars to our north. This precipitation seems to be more associated
with the strong forcing for scent ahead of the upper wave. Cloud
bases within the echoes also show that there is a deep sub-cloud dry
layer. This is also evident on the 00Z soundings from areas to the
north. With so much dry air and the main forcing passing just north
of the forecast area, it seems any precipitation that does make it
to the ground should be of an isolated to scattered nature.
Short-term models higher resolution models also seem to indicate
this trend. So have lowered PoPs across the area but still have the
highest PoPs over our northeastern zones where they will be closer
to the strong lift associated with the upper trough.
Monday and Tuesday continue to look quiet. We`ll remain in
northwesterly flow but there doesn`t appear to be any wave that
would bring us any chance for precipitation. Rather, it looks like
temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and 70s across the area.
Wednesday/Wednesday night actually looks similar to today as far as the
passage of the upper trough to the north with a trailing cold front
into the area. However, with much warmer temperatures and better
moisture available, there will actually be a fair amount of
instability build into the region. But with the timing of the front
being after dark and the support of the upper wave north of the
area, convection will likely have to be closely tied to/forced by
the front. This suggest that convection should be weakening as it
moves into the forecast area due to weakening of instability
overnight. Shear ahead of the front also looks marginal. But there
may be a sweet spot where some instability could be tapped
immediately behind the front where shear is much great. So it`s
possible there could be a few stronger storms move into the area
late Wednesday night.
The forecast become significantly murkier beyond the Wednesday night
convection. First, there are some differences in how quickly the
front moves through and/or how far south it gets before another wave
moves across the region, potentially sustaining precipitation later.
The GEM is most pronounced with this and redevelops precipitation in
the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and the ECMWF
are more south with this as they both depict stronger high pressure
building into the Plains. Precipitation chances come to an end by
Friday as that high pressure builds over the area, but this will
also keep the region cooler than it was earlier in the week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.