Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 191745
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast remains on track with cooler temperatures today as surface
high pressure slides into the area from Canada. Winds will remain out
of the north ushering in the drier cool air through the day today.

By tonight...an upper low situated over the Nevada/Utah border will
slowly move east and turn our flow more cyclonic. This means more
moisture will move towards the southern plains as the Gulf opens up
tonight. Expect showers to move into the area after midnight. While
there may be a rumble or two of thunder overnight and into
Wednesday...no severe storms are expected given the lack of
instability and dynamics as the trough fills as it moves closer.

Wednesday...temperatures will remain cool...in the 50s with lingering
showers until afternoon or evening.

Thursday and Friday will be drier and a little warmer as upper ridge
moves over the region and low level flow swings around to from the
south. Later in the afternoon or evening yet another shortwave trough
will edge out of the west and bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms over the beginning of the Memorial Day weekend. This
next system has better chances for thunderstorms given a deeper
trough...better instability and shear parameters as well. A little
too early to have a lot of confidence in whether severe storms will
form...however...given the previous rains...some localized flooding
is possible over the weekend. Specifically...if the model solutions
pan out there is a good chance that a decent nocturnal jet will form
over central Kansas and with copious moisture from the gulf and
meridional flow...some training cells could mean additional flooding
Saturday into late Sunday night.

Memorial Day...we remain in cyclonic upper flow but best dynamics
head up to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley so there could be a break
in the showers until the next potential shortwave moves into the
plains Monday night. Temperatures over the end of the week and into
the weekend will be a little closer to normal...upper 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

Conditions will remain VFR through this evening with winds out of the
NE btn 7-12kts. Tonight cigs will become ovc around 4kft out ahead of
a storm system which is moving eastward across Kansas this afternoon.
Those rain showers will move into the terminals around midnight. Cigs
will lower through the overnight to MVFR around 08Z and further to IFR
around 11Z. Vsbys will remain VFR thru 11Z when they will drop to
4-5SM in rain and light fog.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adolphson
AVIATION...73





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