Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170825

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Issued at 324 AM CDT MON APR 17 2017

The ongoing showers moving through the area (as of 03Z) are
associated with a weak mid-level impulse. This should move out by
late morning and with weak shortwave ridging and a surface high
passing through the region, the rest of today should be dry. Winds
will shift back to a southerly direction by Tuesday and that will
allow for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday to be well above normal
with readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s Tuesday and in the low to
mid 80s on Wednesday. The persistent southerly flow will also
allow dewpoints to climb into the 60s, which will make things a
little sticky through the middle of the week. This moisture will
also feed into an advancing cold front on Tuesday and spark
thunderstorms over mainly northern Missouri during the afternoon
hours. This thunderstorm area should then drift southward
overnight. This adds a little complexity into the forecast for
Wednesday as there may be lingering convective debris/cloud cover.
None-the-less, it looks like the southerly flow will overcome the
possible convective debris, push the front back north and allow
for a warm and humid day. Additional storms should then develop
during the afternoon/evening ahead of shortwave trough moving into
the area. The potential for severe storms looks better on
Wednesday with the strong wind fields associated with shortwave
trough leading higher values of shear.

That system will temporarily push the deeper moisture to our south.
But by the weekend, a deeper trough will begin to move into the
area. As it does, a strong area of low pressure will form and track
from southwestern Missouri through eastern Missouri. Like the system
about a week ago, this looks like a very dynamic storm and we should
ample widespread rainfall and strong winds Saturday and Saturday
night as the storm passes through the region. Given how wet of a
pattern we`ve been in and the potential for several rounds of
storms prior to this event, it looks like a good chance for
widespread flooding this weekend. There remains some uncertainty
with the track of the storm, but all models produce widespread
rainfall in association with this system.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

Rain showers are still making their way across the forecast area
to the east-southeast. They should exit the area in the late
morning hours. VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected for
most of the forecast area thanks to a surface high and upper level
shortwave ridge moving east, north of our area. A warm front will
start to lift north later tonight bringing MVFR ceilings with it.
General model consensus is the warm front, and therefore lower
ceilings, should only lift into the southern part of the forecast
area near Butler and Clinton. It is possible the front lifts
further north, so have hinted at the possibility of MVFR ceilings
at IXD. As the upper level ridge continues to move east tomorrow
afternoon, any lower ceilings will lift to VFR for the remainder
of the period. Winds should be fairly light and out of east-
southeast for the forecast period.




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