Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192019

319 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Issued at 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The return to summer heat is the main story for the next few days.
Sunday will continue the steady warming trend we`ve been experiencing
since Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90, right
around average for mid/late July.

By Monday and Tuesday a large upper ridge will become established
over the central US and will bring the hottest temperatures so far
this season to our region. Veering low-level winds and resulting
downslope flow will send a surge of warm air toward the Mid-MO Valley
both days with 850 hPa temps rising to between 23 and 27C. This will
translate to surface temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the
area on Monday, with parts of northeast KS and northwest MO
potentially warming into the upper 90s on Tuesday. Some models, most
notably the NAM, are even bringing temperatures into the lower 100s
across far northwest MO but this is likely over done as it has done
several times this summer. Humidity levels will also rise through
this time with dewpoints in the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Didn`t
go as aggressive as most models with the dewpoints since there hasn`t
been much significant rainfall in this part of the country in the
past week and 70s dewpoints are currently confined all the way near
the Gulf Coast. Still, humidity levels should get high enough to send
parts of northwest MO and northeast KS to near heat advisory criteria
(heat index 105F) Monday and especially Tuesday.

Temporary heat relief will arrive with a cold front Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. This front could be accompanied by a complex of
thunderstorms though it will have to overcome some low-level
inhibition. Any storms that do develop this far south appear unlikely
to produce widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather.

Wednesday and Thursday will see slightly cooler conditions behind the
front. Highs on Thursday should be in the lower to middle 80s for
most areas. There could be a few thunderstorm chances during this
time with the potential for one or more upper-level impulses
swinging through in northwest flow. These are poorly resolved at
this time however.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Scattered to broken cumulus deck is currently flirting with MVFR/VFR
heights but bases will rise 1 or 2 thousand feet through the
afternoon. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns.




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