Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212058

258 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

Issued at 258 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

Quiet weather is expected to continue across the region for the next
several days as a longwave trough sinks down the High Plains and
eventually exits later this week. Cooler air associated with the
trough has already begun filtering into the region; however, surface
heating has not only allowed temperatures to climb into upper 40s to
lower 50s, but has also resulted in enough low-level instability to
produce a fairly widespread cu field across much of the CWA. A
repeat performance may be in store tomorrow, so have just slightly
raised highs to account for a fully mixed boundary layer but also
increasing afternoon cloud cover.

Warmer temperatures aloft will begin building into the central
Plains by Friday afternoon, resulting in another weekend of highs
in the 50s to perhaps near 60 degrees Sunday. The clipper system
progged to drop into the region Sunday continues to trend east, and
will likely only impact temperatures/precipitation chances in the
northeastern third of the CWA. Although temperature profiles are
still fluctuating a bit for our northeast on Sunday, surface wet
bulb temperatures consistently in the +2 to +3 degree range likely
eliminate the potential for snow, so have removed the R/S mix during
the daytime hours. The clipper system will quickly exit the region
to the east by Sunday night, but persistent troughing over the east
coast will allow the 850 hPa temperature gradient to linger
somewhere over the CWA. Temperatures are likely to remain above
normal for the beginning of next work week, but could be even warmer
than forecast especially across the west and southwest, depending on
where the gradient sets up.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Northwest winds may briefly gust up to 15 to 20 kts this afternoon,
but will diminish as high pressure builds in this evening. A few
scattered midlevel clouds may build into the area this evening and
tonight, but bases are expected to remain above 3 kft.




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