Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 250921
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
421 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 419 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

Overview:

A very active pattern starting off with the dying
convection generated from the first of three upper level storm
systems. Several periods of severe weather as well as the potential
for very heavy rains Tuesday night/Wednesday morning highlight the
forecast.

Short Term (Today through Tonight):

The convective line which entered the western CWA late Sunday night
soon fell apart after midnight as instability dried up after sunset.
Expect the weakening trend to continue until all convection
dissipate around sunrise.

The Central/Northern Plains closed upper system which initiated last
nights convection has opened up and will now lift northeast. A weak
frontal boundary or surface trough is expected to lie/stall across
northwest MO today. Low level moisture will continue streaming
northward into the CWA today with an area of stratus advecting
northeast and overspreading a good part of west central MO and
possibly reaching central MO. Satellite imagery shows this cloud
cover has quickly formed early this morning and is headed our way.
North of the above boundary there should be sufficient sunshine to
allow temperatures to max out in the 75-80 range resulting in CAPEs
approaching 1500 J/kg. Low-level convergence appears to be lacking
along this boundary while mid level heights increase as mid-level
ridging commences. Will throw in some slight chance PoPs for this
afternoon should any mesoscale processes allow a storm or two to bubble
up.

Otherwise, will turn attention towards our western CWA as increasing
isentropic ascent over eastern KS with a corresponding h7 vorticity
max could generate some elevated convection near the MO/KS border.
Will only insert slight chance PoPs for this area as overall
confidence on this outcome is low.

Will lower temperatures across the southwestern counties as stratus
is most likely to remain through the day.

Medium Term (Tuesday through Wednesday):

A second storm system will impact our forecast area during this
period with the potential for severe storms and a high likelihood of
significant rainfall, owing to the presence of precipitable water
values in the 99th percentile.

As a deep upper low lifts northeast out of the desert southwest a
surface low will deepen over the Central High Plains. A frontal
boundary, likely the above noted boundary moving into northwest MO
today, extending east from the low and across the southern CWA will
lift north on Tuesday while a dryline strengthens from south central
NE through western OK. Afternoon/evening severe weather is expected
along both boundaries. All forms of severe weather will be possible
with this system.

A second day of severe weather is possible on Wednesday as the slow
moving closed upper system plods through the Central Plains. The
surface low will be west of the CWA. There likely will be ongoing
convection over the eastern CWA Wednesday morning and where any
residual convective boundaries exist will be potential breeding
grounds for redevelopment in the afternoon. In addition the surface
dryline will probably lie over eastern KS and afternoon convection
could easily form along this feature if it indeed ends up there.

Long Term (Thursday through Sunday):

Thursday into the first part of Friday looks relatively quiet as
upper level ridging moves into the region before a third closed
upper level system moves out of the Southern Rockies and generates a
couple rounds of active, possibly severe, convection from Friday
night through the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

Light to moderate rain moving through the terminals over the next
couple hours. Rain might hold on at IXD a little longer due to the
orientation of the showers training over that area. Still should see
some improvement in conditions just after 06z at all terminals.
Expect convectively driven NW`ly winds to recover back to the
south/southwest overnight. Expect some moisture to move north through
the day on Monday, which should bring some MVFR CIGs through most of
the day. KSTJ lies on the border of reduced CIGs, so KSTJ might
remain VFR all period long. Expect some improvement in CIGs around
sunset on Monday evening.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...Leighton


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