Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

000
FXUS63 KEAX 160526
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 149 PM CST THU FEB 15 2018

Steady southwesterly low-level flow has maintained the warm
advection trend into this afternoon, pushing temperatures into the
60s and 70s across the southern CWA. Much colder air continues to
filter into northern Missouri, with temps peaking in the upper
40s to lower 50s. This thermal gradient will erode as a cold front
continues to push through northwest Missouri this afternoon,
eventually pushing south of the entire CWA later this evening.

In the meantime, dewpoint values across eastern Kansas have trended
downward as of the late morning and early afternoon, coincident with
a persistent dry low-level air mass out of the southwest, ahead of
the cold front. This feature was evident on the 12Z TOP sounding,
which also minimized the amount of overhead precip reaching the
surface this morning. With increased southwesterly to westerly
flow and a persistent drying trend from the southwest in the lower
levels, fire weather danger will remain elevated through the
afternoon hours. Ample mid to upper level moisture fields will
certainly help with decreased insolation, though outdoor burning
is still discouraged for areas south of Highway 50 through the
remainder of the afternoon.

Gusty winds will remain in place overnight coincident with the
frontal passage, while widespread sub-freezing temps will return
shortly after midnight in the wake of the frontal boundary. A more
noticeable effect will occur early Friday morning as wind chills dip
into the teens, and even single digits further north. Afternoon
highs on Friday will quickly remind us that winter is far from over,
as slightly below seasonal temps return throughout the area. As a
large surface ridge overtakes the region in the wake of the cold
front, gusty winds will quickly slacken Friday morning. Warm
advection will make a return heading into Saturday as the surface
ridge advects downstream and southerly flow reestablishes. As a
result, an overall pleasant weekend awaits as afternoon temps peak
in the low to mid 50s Saturday, and perhaps the low 60s on Sunday.
There remains the potential for light precipitation on Saturday
morning across the area. A weak shortwave trough will clip
northern Missouri during that time, while further south, steady
moisture advection will build underneath broad troughing. The
greatest chances of precip will remain over southern Missouri,
though still cannot rule out light precip, possibly even some
wintry mix, mainly east of I-35 Saturday morning.

The most notable chance of precipitation will hold off until Monday,
at which point a steady surge of low level moisture and warm
advection will build ahead of a broad mid to upper-level trough
across the northern Rockies. A majority of this activity will
remain in liquid form, though there may be a brief transition to a
wintry mix to snow Tuesday morning. Beyond this activity and
weekend warming trend, more seasonal temps will return by the
mid-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU FEB 15 2018

Stratus is gradually moving into the area, bringing clouds down to
around FL015. Gusty winds will persist for the next few hours,
gradually diminishing to around 5-10 kts around sunrise Friday
morning. Low clouds will move out, leaving either SKC or some
scattered cirrus at FL250 for the remainder of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Leighton



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.