Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192102

302 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

Issued at 302 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

The potential for freezing drizzle will continue into Friday morning
as warm, saturated near-surface air continues to glide up over
ground temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Models differ a bit in
how early the moisture arrives, so the forecast will need more
refinement as they converge on a solution -- but the potential for a
light glaze of ice will exist through at least 15-16z on Friday
morning, until temperatures warm above freezing.

Moisture will continue to stream into the region ahead of two
approaching systems; one that will lift out of the desert Southwest
and the other which is expected to swing down into the Plains states
from the Pacific NW.  Rain showers are expected to become more
likely and more widespread on Friday night and especially Saturday,
then will begin to taper off as the cold front associated with the
NW system pushes through on Sunday. A few light snow showers are
possible on the back side of the system late Sunday night or Monday,
but little to no accumulation is expected with most moisture exiting
the region before the arrival of the cold air, and previously
warm/wet ground will limit accumulation.

More notable than the rain, perhaps, will be the temperatures that
accompany the southern system this weekend. Highs are expected to
reach the lower to possibly mid 50s both Friday and Saturday even
despite the increase in cloud cover, which will be quite a deviation
from the previous ~10 days of below normal temperatures. Lows will
be several degrees above normal in the 30s and 40s this weekend due
to the cloud cover and WAA throughout the region. The colder air
that filters in behind the NW system will likely knock the region
back into the 30s or perhaps upper 20s for a few days, but for now
does not look nearly as persistent as our current cold pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Stratus will continue to stream down from the north early this
afternoon, before gradually scattering out by early evening. Ceilings
should remain around 4-5 kft, keeping conditions VFR. Gusty northwest
winds will diminish quickly around sunset, and will remain light from
the northwest or west through 18z Thursday.




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