Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241108

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Issued at 319 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2017

Little has changed with the forecast for today. The upper level
low is moving into southern IA early this morning and will migrate
across northeastern MO into central IL and into the lower Ohio
river valley by the afternoon. As the low is moving into
northeastern MO this morning, the light rain that is showing up in
central IA may may make it into northern and northeastern MO.
Otherwise, with the cold air aloft and diurnal heating, isolated
to scattered showers are expected to develop. Instability looks
weaker than yesterday and looking back through hourly lightning
plots shows there were no cloud-to-ground strikes in the area
yesterday. Given this, it should just be shower activity.
Temperatures will be similar and possibly a few degrees cooler
than yesterday as well. This is mainly due to expected cloud cover
with the cold air aloft. If there are areas that see more of the
Sun, temperatures will be a bit warmer than forecast.

For Thursday morning, a weakness in the pressure gradient will
move across the area. This will be the area between the surface
low to the east and the deepening lee trough over the High Plains.
Since this should be occurring at about the coolest part of the
morning, there may be some potential for fog. Especially given the
recent rainfall and moist ground.

Later Thursday, winds will turn to the south with upper level
shortwave ridging building through the area. This will support a
nice rebound in temperatures compared to the previous few days. High
temperatures should rebound back to near normal levels, in the
middle and upper 70s, across the area. Temperatures may be a
little warmer on Friday. But there is also a potential for
precipitation in the area. Models show a mid-level shortwave
moving through. Their intensity varies considerably though and
this affects their precipitation potential. The NAM has the
strongest wave and as a result moves the strongest area of
precipitation through the area Friday morning. Other models are
weaker but still produce some light QPF. A weak high should build
into the area behind the trough with light northernly winds as a
result. All this may help temperatures remain closer to normal
rather than climbing into the lower 80s.

Focus then turns to Saturday and the potential for thunderstorms.
For the last few nights models, especially the GFS, have been
moving a convective complex across NE and/or northern KS. This
complex then moves into northern MO during the morning hours. A
surface low should be to our south with a surface front
potentially draped across the forecast area. The position of this
boundary will depend on the strength of the outflow from the
thunderstorm complex. But south of the boundary a very unstable
airmass will develop. An approaching upper level trough and
associated speed max will result in favorable shear for organized
storms. At the moment there is some potential for severe storms
Saturday afternoon and evening. But there is much uncertainty on
where given the potential for the convective system to dirty up
the environment.

The rest of the forecast looks relatively quiet at the moment.
Temperatures look to be near normal with highs in the mid to upper
70s through Wednesday. There may be another chance for rain Monday
into Tuesday as another upper trough pass through. But northwesterly
upper flow and a surface high through the middle of the country
looks to keep the weather quiet across the area.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2017

A strip of mid-level clouds is moving south along the KS/MO state
line. Ceilings along the leading edge of this cloud deck were MVFR
but then quickly lift back to VFR. There may be a brief period of
MVFR as this cloud deck moves the terminals over the next hour or
two. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast.
Light northwesterly winds will become light and variable
overnight with clearing skies. This may result in some patchy fog.
The better timing of light winds and clearing skies looks better
east of the I-29 corridor so for now will keep any fog mention out
of terminals.




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