Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 140918

318 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

Issued at 318 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

Water vapor imagery clearly shows the amplified flow across the
CONUS with the storm system that will affect our area later
today/tonight over the southern Rockies. Persistent southerly flow
ahead of this system is advecting copious amounts of moisture for
this time of year, as well as very warm temperatures into the area.
Temperatures again look to possibly reach and/or exceed 60 degrees
early this afternoon. Timing of the rainfall looks to be late this
afternoon/early this evening across eastern Kansas and extreme
western Missouri. This area will then spread eastward overnight. Models
continue to show small amounts of instability with this system so it
still looks possible that we`ll see embedded thunderstorms within the
whole rain area. By Monday afternoon, the system becomes vertically
stacked over northern Missouri. Relatively steep low-level lapse
rates and a skinny CAPE profile suggest convection will persist into
the afternoon. With well defined surface boundaries and a low LCL
there may be some potential for vertically stretching those
boundaries. Would not be surprised to see some funnel cloud reports
Monday afternoon. But this will really depend on how much
instability is present and at the moment would not anticipate
anything severe out of this.

This system will move away by Tuesday, leaving cold air in its
place. This will help to set the stage for the next round of
precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Model consistency is
not very good for the mid-week system but they do show a band of
moisture lifting northward. Forecast soundings show the entire column
below freezing with a high likelihood of ice crystals being present.
This indicates that snowfall may spread northward across mainly the
southern half of the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday.
Models then show another wave moving out of the southern Rockies late
in the week. Timing remains a challenge and the GFS and the ECMWF vary
greatly on how far south the wave will actually move, with the ECMWF
being very far to the south. The GFS, on the other hand, depicts a
scenario that is favorable for measurable snowfall Friday into
Saturday. There is still plenty of time to monitor this system but
for now there is an increasing potential for measurable snowfall late
in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

Another night, another challenging aviation forecast. At least for
the initial few hours of the forecast, conditions look to be higher
end MVFR or even VFR. But forecast soundings and guidance all support
a trend to low MVFR and IFR later tonight and into the morning hours
of Sunday. There may be a break in the poor ceilings Sunday
afternoon, but still think at least MVFR will prevail. Ceilings
should once again fall as an area of rain moves into the area late in
the forecast period.




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