Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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591
FXUS63 KEAX 180356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1056 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

Cloud cover has eroded some over southern/southeastern portions of
the forecast area this afternoon. With weak returns showing up on
radar from showers/storms in eastern Kansas, feel it`s possible the
southern half of the forecast area may see renewed showers and
possibly some storms later this afternoon into early this evening.
The better chances though should come late tonight and tomorrow
morning.

With persistent southwesterly flow and ample and deep moisture
advecting into the area, moisture will remain in place. Water vapor
imagery shows several features that will have an effect on our
weather. First, there appears to be a wave moving out of the Four
Corners area and into the southern High Plains. This is sparking
thunderstorms in southern Colorado and eastern New Mexico. The
second is a fetch of upper level moisture streaming north from the
tip of the Baja California Peninsula associated with tropical storm
Norma. This tropical moisture connection likely enhanced rainfall
this morning with several sites picking up 3 to 4 inches of rain
through the overnight hours. Models are in good agreement developing
convection in central KS late tonight and then tracking east into
the forecast area as the upper wave pushes east. Precipitable water
values approaching two inches is very anomalous for this time of
year and likely greater than the 90th percentile. Thus, efficient
rainfall is likely. Given this, have increased PoPs and QPF for late
tonight and especially tomorrow morning. We could see another
widespread inch of rain with locally higher amounts possible. The
thing that may limit flooding potential will be that the storms
should be progressive and not stall out in any given place.

Beyond the next 24 hours, shortwave upper ridging looks to build
across the area. Southerly to southwesterly low level flow will
persist, allowing for unseasonably warm and humid conditions. But
with the upper ridging, precipitation chances on any given day
through end of the week look fairly low. It`s not until the weekend,
and possibly into early next week, when a deep trough develops over
the west, that we may break the unseasonably warm and humid airmass.
Until then, it looks like highs in the middle to upper 80s with
afternoon dewpoints in the lower 70s. This is typical weather for
August not late September.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PMCDT SUN SEP 17 2017

The period will start off VFR for all locations but this will
change quickly as an area of lower moisture and precipitation
push into the area Monday morning. The lower MVFR ceilings will
push into the area ahead of the precipitation with some IFR
possibilities up near KSTJ near sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms
will start to push into the area around 15Z and may impact the
lower ceilings to make them temporarily lower with added moisture
in the lower levels. This band of precipitation is expected to
move out of the TAF areas and into central Missouri by late
afternoon. Ceilings should start to improve from west to east and
south to north indicated that KIXD will clear first and KSTJ will
clear last. By the late afternoon all TAF locations should be
relatively precipitation free and VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham



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