Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 310640

140 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Issued at 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Low level stratus has gradually mixed out through the day on Sunday.
A decent amount of low level moisture has remained in the area,
which despite below-average temperatures have brought about muggy
conditions. Any rain chances will likely be confined to the far
southern and eastern parts of the CWA, across central Missouri
through the rest of today along a bit of a residual boundary. Day
time heating has allow for ML CAPE to reach about 1500 to 2000 J/KG
across central Missouri, with little inhibition. With minimal
surface convergence along that boundary and little forcing for
ascent in the mid levels there is a small chance for a storm or two
to form across the southern and eastern CWA, so left a slight chance
for showers in that area.

Monday will likely mark the final day of below-average temperatures,
at least for a few days, as a disorganized mid level ridge builds
into the center part of the US. Surface low pressure takes form
(also a bit disorganized) to the west, which will bring some
southerly surface flow to the area, and should allow for some warmer
temperatures going into next week. Generally expecting temperatures
for the Monday-Friday time frame to reside in the upper 80s to lower
90s for highs through the middle to later part of the week. The next
chance for rain will be Tuesday, mainly across the far northwestern
parts of Missouri. With the mid level ridge being somewhat
positively tilted the southwest flow aloft could facilitate a
shortwave trough to move through NW Kansas, into central NE and
ultimately eastern Nebraska. Northwest Missouri would be on the far
southern/eastern fringe of this activity, so any chance for rain at
this point would be rather minimal. The next substantial chance for
rain will likely come sometime during the weekend, or possibly early
next week, when both GFS and EC indicate the ridge sliding east a
bit, with southwest flow aloft moving in as well as a surface cold
front. This could bring a chance for thunderstorms on Day 6 or Day
7, but events that far in the future allude any detailed
description, but warrants some attention.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 140 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Light fog will likely develop over the next few hours although
visibilities and ceilings will not be nearly as low or as widespread
as Sunday morning. Most locations should avoid seeing IFR conditions
and if so it should be brief. This moisture will burn off by 14Z or
so with VFR for the remainder of the period.




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