Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 120831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
231 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 231 AM CST MON FEB 12 2018

Quiet weather is expected for the first half of the week. The x-
factor for temperatures through the middle of the week is how
much influence and for how long the 1 to 3 inches of snow has
across northern MO. There seems to be a fairly tight gradient from
some snow in northern MO to half a foot or more of snow cover in
portions of southern IA. So highs along the IA/MO state line could
struggle until that snow cover is gone. For today, temperatures
will continue to be chilly as high pressure passes to our north
and keeps easterly surface flow through the day. Highs are
expected to range from the middle 20s along the IA border, to the
lower 40s in the southern portions of the forecast areas. For
Tuesday, southerly flow will commence and allow temperatures to
rebound nicely. Highs should be able to climb into the 40s for
most of the area. But temperatures may only make into the upper
30s along the IA border and some areas in our south may climb into
the lower 50s. Wednesday we`ll see a much more pronounced warm up
as highs surge into the 60s for most of the area. If there`s
still snow cover along the state line, far northern MO may be
stuck in the upper 40s or lower 50s.

A cold front is expected to move through the area Thursday.
Temperatures will surge into the middle 60s ahead of the front.
Right now this looks to be in the eastern third of the forecast
area. The GFS is a little faster with this front than the ECMWF and
the Canadian. If the front is slower, those warmer temperatures will
be brought further west. The other aspect of the prefrontal
environment will be the strong and gusty south to southwesterly
winds. This may lead to some elevated fire danger despite the modest
moisture advection. There may also be some showers with the warm
advection Thursday morning, then again ahead of the front Thursday
afternoon, although the better chances will be to our east later
in the day and into the overnight. Colder air will settle over the
area Friday, but this will be short-lived as the associated high
pressure area quickly pushes east and we return to southerly flow
for Saturday and Sunday


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2018

VFR conditions will dominate over the next 24 hours. Otherwise,
expect the wind to generally stay from the east.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter



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