Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 231754
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 300 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017

The main concern in the near term will be the potential for patchy
fog again this morning, especially over part of the western CWA
where skies are clearing and winds are diminishing with high
pressure moving into the area. The ridge of surface high pressure
slides east directly over the area today however clouds will be
persistent and are expected to keep temperatures down today.
Expect highs to remain in the 40s. Upper level ridging will build
into the region late in the day today in response to a upper
level trough digging down the west coast. This upper level trough
will move into the central Plains Tuesday forcing a associated
cold front into the eastern Plains by Tuesday afternoon. Showers
will develop out ahead of this front as early as Tuesday morning
across the northwestern CWA and then overspread the area during
the day. Strong WAA will allow temperatures to warm into the low
to mid 60s across the southern CWA while cloud cover across the
northern CWA will keep highs in the upper 40s to near 50. Tuesday
night a surface low will track from northeastern Kansas into
eastern Iowa forcing the aforementioned cold front through the
area. CAA will filter into the area Wednesday morning mixing or
changing light rain over to snow across northern Missouri.
However, little to no accumulation is expected as temperatures are
only expected to drop into the low to mid 30s across northern
Missouri. Highs Wednesday will be much cooler but near normal in
the mid 30s to mid 40s. Precipitation will exit the area Wednesday
night as the upper level trough shifts off into the Great Lakes
region. Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures are then
expected for the remainder of the week as benign northwest flow
aloft dominates. Expect highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s
Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017

Fog and stratus have been tough to get rid of this morning across
the area. Expect it to hang on a bit longer, but with some gradual
improvement later this afternoon. Winds then increase through the
overnight hours, which could be a mitiating factor for more fog
development on Tuesday morning. Model guidance is a bit bearish on
the fog formation, so went with some MVFR VIS restrictions for the
early morning hours. Winds then pick up even more through the day
while conditions become VFR by the end of this 24 hour forecast
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Leighton


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