Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 358 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

A brief return of mid-level ridging over the Central Plains will
maintain dry conditions despite persistent low level moisture
beneath 850 hPa. Resulting low level stratus and northeasterly to
easterly surface flow will moderate existing temperatures this
afternoon, thus have lowered Tuesday afternoon highs slightly.
Values will range from the mid 50s north of the I-70 corridor to
the lower 60s for points south, where weak WAA will persist.

The main impact for the next few days will be in the form of steady
rain over a multi-day period beginning late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. A strong upper level trough now centered over
the southwestern CONUS will continue to deepen this afternoon and
become somewhat detached from the upper level pattern as it
slowly pushes eastward Wednesday into Thursday. This feature will
open the door for a northward fetch of deep layer moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico to advect into much of the Southern and Central
Plains. Unseasonably high precipitable water values just over 1
inch early on in the event will set the stage for beneficial
rainfall during multiple expected rounds of steady precipitation.
Beginning early Wednesday morning, a surface low will form over
the Texas Panhandle and begin to pull moisture northward from the
Gulf of Mexico underneath southwesterly flow of the parent upper
level trough. Precipitation will form locally ahead of a warm
front as this persistent and relatively slow moving system
advances eastward. The surface low will trek to the northeast
through Thursday and clear east of the forecast area by Thursday
afternoon. Rain showers will then continue on the backside of the
exiting surface low as late as Thursday night. Activity will
develop over multiple rounds throughout this period, and rainfall
totals will range between 1.5 inches to just under 2 inches for
most areas. While this will provide relief from the ongoing
moderate drought, will need to monitor the potential for localized
flash flooding. Given the recent dry spell, flash flood guidance
suggests that the surface should have no immediate issues
absorbing current forecast rainfall amounts. With that said, the
northward extent of the warm front may present the possibility of
training activity underneath unidirectional flow during the
Wednesday to Thursday time frame, particularly for the western
counties, including the KC metro. Thus, while widespread flooding
is not likely, localized flash flooding is possible. River levels
may also rise slightly, coincident with localized heavy rainfall.
Marginal elevated instability values across much of the area could
also pose the chance of hail up to one inch Wednesday afternoon,
though this hazard will remain isolated.

Temperatures during the extent of the event will not veer far from
current conditions, with values remaining near seasonal to finish
out the work week. Dry conditions will then make a brief return by
Friday morning. The unsettled pattern will resume Saturday
afternoon as another similar upper level system approaches the
area. This system will be less organized in comparison with the
mid-week activity, though do still anticipate additional
widespread rain to further improve the current dry trend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Low-level moisture and mist will reduce ceilings to IFR along with
slightly reduced visibilities periodically through the morning
hours. Conditions will marginally improve this afternoon as
ceilings lift to MVFR with steady surface winds remaining out of
the east. Precipitation will return to the area toward the end of
the forecast period. Expecting to see steady showers after 12Z
Wednesday, though have included VCSH to account for leading
activity after 06Z. Ceiling heights will should once again return
to IFR during this time with surface winds increasing due to a
tightening PGF ahead of the advancing surface low.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh


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