Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 300815
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Broad isentropic lift, modest MUCAPE, outflow boundary interaction,
and a slight weakness in the midlevel ridge have allowed areas of
scattered thunderstorms to develop early this morning. Isentropic
lift translates northward with time and MUCAPE should continue to
weaken gradually with time which could cause storms to fall apart,
but otherwise, do not see a good reason why showers and embedded
storms will not continue into the daylight hours. Areas of localized
flooding will be a concern where storms persist or where multiple
rounds of precipitation occur, and the quick, circular outflows
evident on radar indicate the environment is supportive of quick but
strong downdrafts, possibly translating to the surface as briefly
gusty winds.

As a result of lingering instability, moisture, and boundaries,
storms cannot be ruled out at any point today across the region.
However, the midlevel trough axis currently over the northern Plains
will translate southward across the forecast area today, opening up
southwest flow across the forecast area and allowing shortwave
energy from the dissipating system over the Rockies to bulge
northeastward into the region. This additional support will make
precipitation more likely and more widespread than the last several
days, and at least provides some focus for higher predictability as
the trough axis sinks southward. The best potential for multiple
rounds of widespread rainfall, and thus flooding, will still be
across northwest MO where this morning`s precipitation may linger
through much of the day. Far northern portions of the CWA are also
where the best upper-level support with the 250 hPa trough axis and
jet streak coincide with the midlevel southward-sinking wave, so
will keep the flash flood watch as-is at this time.

The slow-moving midlevel trough axis will finally push south of the
region Wednesday night, allowing northwest flow aloft and surface
high pressure to sink into the region and precipitation chances to
diminish. Cooler, drier conditions and clear skies will make it feel
a bit more autumn- like as September arrives, with sunshine allowing
highs to reach around 80 degrees but the drier air and clear
overnight conditions promoting falling overnight temperatures into
the 50s by the end of the work week.

If you`re not so excited about fall-like weather on the last big
summer weekend, there`s something for everyone in this forecast!
While lower-level high pressure and thus the cooler pattern will
reach its peak Friday through early Saturday, the upper-level
pattern will already be transitioning to support rising temperatures
Sunday and Monday. Strong southwest flow aloft and an eastward-
building thermal ridge will bring temperatures into the mid 80s by
Sunday and the upper 80s for Labor Day, while precipitation chances
stay relatively low until after the extended holiday weekend.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible overnight along a frontal
boundary lifting north. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR during
this time, though conditions may briefly reduce to MVFR should a
storm impact any of the terminals given the efficient rain processes
recently observed. MVFR fog may become a concern for KSTJ early
Tuesday morning, with perhaps a brief period of patchy fog impacting
remaining terminals. Otherwise, storm chances will return to the
area by late Tuesday afternoon. May need to include in a later
issuance, though will hold off for now given the spatial and temporal
uncertainty.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ001-002-011-012-
     020.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Welsh



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