Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 261127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2017

Echoes are being detected on radar early this morning across
central KS, making their way toward the SW corner of the forecast
area. However, some of these leading echoes don`t currently appear
to have precip reaching the ground, concurrent with relatively
high cloud bases. With some atmospheric moistening anticipated
later this morning into this afternoon, am maintaining lower-end
mentionable PoPs, although any precip that does fall will be
rather light (little QPF). Any snowflakes that fly around this
morning will quickly transition to liquid form as temps rise into
the 40s and 50s this afternoon.

The next chance for rain arrives late Monday as a warm front lifts
north across the area, although this round will likely again
contain little amounts of precip. Hopefully, the area will get
some decent accumulating rain late Tuesday, thanks to a cold front
traversing through during the day, followed by an upper trough
rotating through behind it. Along and ahead of the cold front,
dynamics appear to come together to allow for thunderstorms to
develop, perhaps some becoming strong Tuesday afternoon into the
evening hours. The better chances for these storms are currently
forecast to reside south and east of a line stretching from near
Kirksville through Linn County, KS, but is subject to change
should the front`s progression slow on Tuesday. As for wintry
precip chances overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, it looks to
be confined primarily to NW MO into north-central MO as temps
struggle to make a significant enough drop in a timely manner, and
then rebound well into the 40s and 50s on Wednesday. Therefore,
should any minor accumulations occur in those locations, it`ll be
short-lived, melting by midday Wednesday. Once the precip exits
out on Wednesday, dry conditions will resume for the latter half
of the week.

As for temperatures outside of the aforementioned days, the above
normal trend looks to continue with WAA ushering in upper 50s to
lower 60s for highs on Monday and 60s and 70s for most of the
forecast area on Tuesday. Where thunderstorms are currently
anticipated is where the warmest temps will reside on Tuesday,
with a few models depicting near 80 degrees in the southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area, although have held off
going too bullish attm given the uncertainty in the front`s timing
as well as anticipated cloud cover that could moderate temps.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2017

An area of precipitation currently draped across central KS is
making its way toward eastern KS and western MO. Have only
included VCSH for IXD as the better chances reside south of the
I-70 corridor, although will be closely monitoring to see if MVFR
ceilings/visbys need to be added to IXD. Similar close monitoring
of MKC this morning but MCI and STJ should remain VFR through
tonight. Any precip that may initially fall as snow this morning
will transition to rain by midday. Winds will primarily be out of
the SSW today, becoming more southerly later in the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg


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