Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 232329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.Short Term...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

Short Term (Tonight through Monday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for a few
strong and isolated severe storms on Sunday evening into Sunday
night. Tonight, however will be much less interesting and quite
pleasant as modest southerly winds will hold temperatures in the mid
50s to lower 60s. The system, an upper level trough, that will bring
thunderstorms to the area Sunday will move from western Wyoming to
near the WY/SD/NE by Saturday night. This will force a cold front into
the western Plains. Thunderstorms will develop along this front
tonight across western Kansas. This storms will progress across
Kansas overnight enhanced by a 50-60kt SSWly nocturnal LLJ. By early
Sunday morning the LLJ will veer to the southwest and storms will
begin to approach northeastern KS and northwestern MO. However,
these storms will be weakening as they approach and there may just
be a few isolated storms or residual shower to make it into the
extreme NW CWA Sunday morning. However, by Sunday afternoon, a dry
line will exist across central Kansas with the attendant cold front
lagging to the west across the western High Plains. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop out ahead of the cold front across central
Kansas during the afternoon and move eastward. These storms will
have the potential to be strong with perhaps isolated severe storms
possible mainly across northwestern MO/northeastern KS where
dewpoints will be near 60 degrees, modest instability of 500-
800J/kg, and steep mid-level lapse rates will exist. However, shear
is not impressive and as previously mentioned instability is merely
modest. Consequently, strong storms will be possible and perhaps
even a marginally severe storm capable of producing large hail or
damaging winds. Storms will weaken Sunday night as storms move into
a more stable environment and the upper level trough continues to
weak as it moves into the Upper Midwest. On Monday, the cold front
associated with the upper level system will sag through the area.
However, will little forcing the front will sag through the area
with little activity expected. The best chance for storms would
occur head of the front where modest instability will reside. Monday
night the cold front will sink south of the area and become
stationary. A few thunderstorms may develop north of the stationary
boundary Monday as a SW 40kt LLJ overrides the boundary. These
thunderstorms may affect the southern CWA depending on the location
of the front.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

Tuesday evening and Wednesday will bring another round of showers
and possibly severe thunderstorms to the CWA. The most recent NAM
and GFS runs show Tuesday morning and early afternoon warm and humid
with precipitation mainly staying just south of the WFO. A negatively
tilted low pressure trough stations itself over eastern CO/western KS
Tuesday afternoon. A cold front will move east through Kansas
Wednesday afternoon, and an associated warm front will be located E-W
through our forecast area late Tuesday bringing low- level moisture
with it. Dew point temperatures will range from low 50s north of the
front spreading south to the mid-60s. We will also have decent
instability and shear with CAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg and
30-50 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. A combination of high CAPE and shear may
lead to potentially severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. The
development and location of severe weather will depend on the timing
of convection and the frontal passage, which will become more clear
as we get closer to the event. For now, the GFS and Euro models show
precipitation starting in eastern KS and moving east through the WFO
late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Convection could
continue throughout Wednesday as CAPE values are expected to stay
above 1000 J/kg throughout Wednesday afternoon.

High temperatures will continue to be in the mid 70s through
Wednesday, but will drop to the mid-high 60s for Thursday and Friday
after the cold front passes. Low temperatures will drop Thursday and
Friday mornings to the high 40s to low 50s. Thursday is expected to
be dry before another upper low system may cause more precipitation
late Friday into Saturday.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR conditions anticipated through the fcst period with modest south
winds of 10-15 kts expected through the overnight before increasing
after 16z. Further aloft...a strong southwesterly low-level jet of
roughly 45 kts will lead to increasing LLWS concerns after 06z and a
mention has been added for all forecast locations. Precip chances in
the form of shwrs/storms look to increase after 21z...however the
mostly likely location right now appears to be STJ based on expected
dryline configuration. Will consider adding further south with the
next forecast issuance.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term...73
Long Term...Chandler/CDB
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