Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 010515
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 510 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Forecast today is dominated by the next 24 hours, though a secondary
precipitation event does look to be in the offing for Monday night
into Tuesday.

A look at the big picture shows broad positively tilted trough
dominating the Nation. This has resulted in a locally zonal flow
across the Central Plains, though it is a confluent flow with cold
air advection dominating areas to our north as a notable shortwave
trough swings through the Dakotas while the West Coast trough keeps
the warm air advection going across the Southern Plains. This has
left our region stuck between the warring airmasses, resulting in
poor confidence in snow placement and totals. At least for the rest
of the afternoon and into the evening satellite, radar and surface
observations trends are lending strong support to todays forecast
for a widespread 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation, with the
highest totals oriented from southwest into central Missouri -- this
includes the southern reaches of Kansas City.

Current upstream observations continue to show decent snow moving
this way from south central Kansas, though there is a hint that
subsidence to the north of our best snow band will spread into
Kansas City over the late afternoon and evening hours, likely
bringing an end to the first round of snow early this evening for
northern KC. Areas on the south side of KC will see a bit more as
snow will likely keep lingering a bit longer into the evening hours
before it ends. Of course, we continue to expect a second round of
snow to develop as a weak surface high spreading south from British
Columbia and Alberta, inducing some frontogenic forcing along it`s
leading edge under a stout 120+ knot upper level jet streak.
Questions persist as to how far into the day Sunday snow will
persist, so have continued to broad brush the ending time frame for
the snow by keeping categorical POPs going through Noon for areas
along and south of a line form Kirksville to northern Kansas City.
Kept some Chance to Likely POPs going for the afternoon hours Sunday
across areas from east central Kansas through central and northeast
Missouri. This secondary band should be good for another round of
light snow with around and inch or less possible. Placement of this
band is iffy, but have kept the higher secondary amounts focused
towards central Missouri, along the Missouri River and I-70.

Once this weekends weather wraps up Sunday there will be a bit of
break before we get our next round of precipitation, though it will
arrive with warmer temperatures. Late this weekend the trough over
the West Coast will start to migrate east. This will induce a fair
amount of warm air advection lifting temperatures above freezing
Monday and Tuesday afternoons. In fact, Tuesday may see temperatures
creep back to around 50 degrees in areas south of I-70. However,
with the warmer temperatures will come a decent Gulf moisture
return. Precipitation associated with the moisture return will
likely arrive late Monday night/Tuesday morning. The strong warm
nose advertised aloft in advance of warmer surface temperatures will
provide an opportunity for some freezing rain and/or sleet late
Monday night into Tuesday morning, though ice accumulations do not
look like more than a few hundredths of an inch at this time, and
that is mostly across north central to northeast Missouri. By the
late morning to afternoon hours temperatures should be warm enough
for all rain. Monday into Tuesday`s precipitable weather will
proceed another cool down in temperatures, but at this time the
precipitation look to be ending just as thermal profiles cool off
Tuesday night.

After Tuesday the pattern looks dry through the end of the work
week, with the potential of seeing temperatures in the 40s and 50s
by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A band of light snow currently moving through all KC area TAF sites
will continue to shift eastward over the next several hours, allowing
snow to gradually end between 08z-10z. Another round of snow will
develop across central KS and shift northeast, impacting all TAF
sites between 14z-18z Sunday. Visibilities will be reduced to 2 miles
or less during periods of snowfall, and ceilings will vary from low-
end MVFR to VFR periodically. Winds will be light and variable during
the night, eventually becoming northwesterly by late Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR MOZ004>008-
     012>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin





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