Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 251728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Have increased PoPs across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern KS for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we`ve been watching tracking east across KS early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Conditions are expected to generally be lower end VFR this
afternoon. But given low level trajectories and upstream
obs/satellite images, could see periods of MVFR as the cu/stratocu
develop. As mixing deepens these should tend to lift later this
afternoon. Focus then turns to the next round of possible storms.
Thinking storms will form from central to northeastern KS this
afternoon. But for the terminals, cooling aloft will need to occur
and that will arrive early this evening as the influence of one,
perhaps two, upper shortwave troughs approaches. So after 00Z there
may be an increase in thunderstorm coverage as the cap erodes. All
this activity may congeal into a cluster of storms and track through
the area overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB





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