Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160502
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

Winds will begin to diminish rather quickly this afternoon as a
surface ridge builds into western MO, and will combine with sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures to result in a very pleasant fall
afternoon and evening throughout the area. Clear skies and light
winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 40s by early
Thursday morning, then increasing southerly flow will usher slightly
above normal temperatures in for Thursday afternoon. Highs tomorrow
are expected to reach the lower to mid 70s area-wide, and skies will
remain mostly clear.

A cold front will push southward through the region late Thursday
evening into early Friday morning, but the coldest air will be slow
to arrive and should result in progressively cooler temperatures
Friday and Saturday. Highs are expected to range from the lower 60s
north to around 70 south of I-70 on Friday, then upper 50s and lower
60s are expected throughout the CWA for Saturday. Most moisture
associated with the parent shortwave trough should drop southeast
along with the upper high across the Great Lakes region, keeping the
frontal passage through our area dry.

Seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected
going into next week as a few additional upper troughs slide off
into the Great Lakes region. A few light showers are possible Sunday
night as a weak cold front moves through, but moisture again looks
limited and very little rainfall is expected. The next chance for
any notable rainfall may come just beyond the end of the forecast
period, but model discrepancies on timing and position are still
high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

Little change to the forecast, aside from introducing a forecast for
a weak frontal passage around 00z Thursday evening. KSTJ is already
showing signs of having off and on MVFR/IFR fog, so introduced an
early morning TEMPO group, as confidence is low that fog will prevail
through the entire night. Will amend as necessary, should more
prevalent fog form.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






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