Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 100504

1204 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

Issued at 258 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Quiet conditions will continue across most of the region this
afternoon and tonight as surface high pressure continues to drift
across Missouri. A few isolated showers and storms are possible this
evening across far northwest MO as a subtle shortwave trough drops
down the back side of the surface high, and current showers & storms
associated with that feature drop southeast. Dry air below 700 mb
will limit possible rainfall amounts with this round of possible
precipitation to only a few hundredths of an inch. Additional storms
are possible after 09z across eastern Kansas and far western MO, but
should be mainly focused closer to the LLJ, which will position over
central KS tonight.

Any showers and storms that develop tonight may linger in eastern KS
and western MO on Thursday morning, along with increased morning
cloud cover, but should dissipate by late morning - early afternoon.
Another round of nocturnal convection is possible near the LLJ on
Thursday night, but with the eastward shift of the jet, storms will
be focused across our forecast area, especially after 03z. PoPs and
possible rainfall amounts are higher across northern into eastern MO
where stronger convection in IA may track southeast, but storms are
possible across most of the CWA. Shear values are highest in this
area as well, where a few stronger storms are possible.

Low pressure lifting out of the lee side of the Rockies will help a
stalled frontal boundary currently across OK/AR lift northward on
Friday, eventually stalling near the IA/MO border by Friday
afternoon and lingering there through the weekend. This will result
in fairly continuous storm chances across northern MO and far
northeast KS this weekend, and very warm temperatures south of the
front. An upper trough will eventually kick the stalled front south
somewhere in the Sunday - Monday timeframe, bringing a few more
rounds of possible thunderstorms, then much cooler temperatures for
Tuesday through the end of the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period. Convection to the west
continues to dissipate as it encounters a dry sub-cloud layer, and
anticipate that trend to continue overnight. Periods of mid-level
cloudiness will work its way into the area through the period.
Increasing chances of thunderstorms possible towards the end of the
TAF period.




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