000
FXUS63 KFSD 251724
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THIS MORNING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION FIELD WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SHOULD
REACH THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION
RATES ARE PRETTY MINIMAL AND WITH SNOW FALLING AT TEMPERATURES
ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 35 TO 32 NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW. MELTING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE COOL SPOT IS LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
MORE CLOUDS AND A LITTLE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN SO HIGHS
CLOSER TO 30. SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA HAS SEEN LITTLE OR NO SNOW
AND EXPECT A LITTLE SUNSHINE THERE TODAY SO HIGHS LIKELY 40 TO 45 OR
SO.

BY TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY FAR TO THE NORTH BUT THIS WILL
AGAIN TURN THE WINDS TO A NICE MIXY WESTERLY DIRECTION. SO EXPECT
LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FROM ABOUT
35 TO 40 IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOME COOLER READINGS IN NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH MILDER WITH WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AND A
MIXY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S BACK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE EAST
THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGHS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE CWA
ABOUT MIDDAY. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE A MILD DAY...MAYBE NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH A QUICKER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS STILL LOOK TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND EAST TO THE
LOWER 50S THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MO RIVER CORRIDOR. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE
GFS.

COLDER AIR THEN FILTERS INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS COLD
AIR TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A MUCH COLDER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. STAYING CLOSE TO CONSENSUS YIELDS HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN 20S AND 30S FOR
SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE MAINLY TEENS AND 20S. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BLUSTERY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD