Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 232058
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
258 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Abundant low-level moisture has allowed low stratus clouds to keep
much of the area from seeing sun today. South central South Dakota
is only retaining high clouds this afternoon, associated with a
quick-moving, weak upper level trough. Despite brief clearing, many
can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies through the evening and
overnight hours, since lingering low-level moisture should allow low
clouds and areas of fog to re-form, primarily between the James River
Valley in the west and the Buffalo Ridge in the east.

Temperature-wise, seasonal readings today give way to warmer than
average conditions tomorrow (Wednesday), as an upper-level ridge
builds over the Plains. Highs will be in the 30s, with light south
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Dry and relatively quiet weather is expected through the forecast
period (through early next week).

The upper-level ridge and associated high pressure to the southeast
of the region will allow relatively warm south winds 10 to 15 mph to
continue through Thursday. The upper level ridge then moves east
Friday, with a trough moving in. Most of the energy and
precipitation with this next system will be well north along the
Canadian border, meaning that a subtle increase in clouds and a
shift to west winds will be the primary sensible weather change for
the tri-state area. Saturday`s temperatures remain mild and slightly
above normal, with light west winds continuing.

By Sunday, a cool Canadian airmass will push south through the
region as the upper level jet stream becomes northwesterly. Although
confidence is very low this far out, light snow could be possible
with this weak cold front. Sunday into Monday morning looks to be
the coolest period of the next 7 days, although temperatures during
this period are only slightly below average. Early next week,
another ridge looks to build, which would again bring a change to
warmer southerly winds.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Low clouds will linger throughout the day for much of the region
Keeping areas of IFR and LIFR conditions in the forecast.
Although models hint at some thinning in cloud cover, any clearing
skies will likely cool the lowest layers of the atmosphere,
allowing low clouds to re-form overnight. Additionally, patchy
fog is possible as well, as surface winds remain weak and
limiting mixing will occur. Precipitation is not expected through
the next 24 hours, although a brief flurry cannot totally be ruled
out given low cloud layers several hundred feet thick.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...VandenBoogart



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