Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 132247
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
547 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Precipitation risks continue to diminish today, with rain
   focus mostly tied to portions of Northwest Iowa and Nebraska.

-  Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday, before a
   strong cold front lowers highs closer to normals Sunday and
   Monday.

-  Winds increase Saturday and Sunday behind the cold front,
   raising fire weather concerns once again.

- Temperatures warm back above normal, as persistent dry
  conditions continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

THIS AFTERNOON:  Despite a persistent influx of mid-upper clouds,
temperatures have once again risen 20 to 30 degrees above normal
in many locations.

TONIGHT:  Mid-lvl clouds gradually lower through the night as weak
and very elevated frontogenesis increases this evening over NE
Nebraska and NW Iowa. However, both lift and moisture remain on the
lower end of the scale, likely mitigating the chance for rain this
evening into the early overnight hours.  Rain chances will begin to
increase towards the Highway 20 corridor after midnight and into
Thursday morning.

THURSDAY: Rain chances have continued to shift south and dissipate
across the Tri-State area Thursday into Thursday night.  A
combination of both a southeast shift of the ejecting upper trough
into the Plains, and shifting moisture trajectories with the wave.
Latest guidance supports only slightly meaningful rainfall now
falling along a line from Sioux City to Spencer and areas southeast
through the day on Thursday.  Amounts in most areas of NE Nebraska
and NW Iowa will remain under a quarter inch, with only a 50%
probability of reaching 0.50" near Storm Lake.  Further northwest,
given minimal precipitation risks more than sprinkles, a higher
based cloud deck, mixy winds, and lingering warm air in the low
levels, have bumped up temperatures and lowered dew points slightly.
 This will induce at least a slightly elevated fire danger risk as
winds may gust over 30 mph at times through the day.

FRIDAY: Rain exits the area early Thursday night, leaving dry
conditions in place for Friday.  A rather light wind will prevail
Friday as a surface high pressure ridge moves through.  Temperatures
again warm above seasonal normals and into the 50s.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Medium range models remain very consistent bringing
a large upper trough southward into the Great Lakes for the
upcoming weekend. A surface front associated with this trough
moves through Friday night bringing cooler temperatures and
perhaps isolated sprinkles in the afternoon of Saturday. There
will likely be a short burst of stronger winds with the passing
front, but stronger winds up to 30-40 mph may mix down in the
afternoon. Should dew points dry out, and RH drop, then
widespread very high fire danger could be possible Saturday. A
secondary cold front moves through by Sunday morning, again
leading to the highest potential for below normal high
temperatures Sunday.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Mid-lvl ridging begins to rebuild over the western
third of the CONUS early next week.  As upper troughing moves into
the Northeastern US, we`ll see a return of low-lvl warm
advection into the Plains early next week. With dry weather
persisting, we`ll see temperatures climb back into the 50s
Tuesday and even 60s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Scattered showers will develop across northeastern NE and
northwestern IA this evening, then continue into Thursday
afternoon. While conditions will primarily be VFR, could see
ceilings lower into the MVFR range over that area by mid morning
on Thursday. Northerly winds will begin to increase later
tonight, gusting 20 to 25 kts through Thursday evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...JM


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