Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 132010
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A WEAK 700 MB WAVE DROPPING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WE ARE SEEING SOME SCATTERED POPCORN TYPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH BEYOND VERY
BRIEF DOWNPOURS...PEA SIZED HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WHILE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES INTO
WOODBURY AND IDA COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LARGE CUT OFF CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...USHERING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH A GREATER SOUTHWARD FRONTAL
PUSH AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR TONIGHT WITH ANY ACTIVITY
AFTER MID EVENING EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY WINDS TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
MPH. MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND
WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE
OF MINNESOTA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN
THE HEART OF THE CU FIELD...SO WILL LEAVE ISOLATED MENTION HERE. THE
BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE LACK OF HEATING
SUSPECT THAT SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT BUT NOT
CALM...AND WITH THE COOLEST AIR OVER THE AREA IT SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT. A RECORD LOW OR TWO STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

TUESDAY WILL START SEVERAL DAYS OF SLOW AND DRY WARMING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH MODEST
WINDS THE OUTDOORS SHOULD FEEL PRETTY PLEASANT. SUNSHINE MAY BE
DECREASED A BIT BY SCATTERED CLOUDS DUE TO HEATING. HIGHER CLOUDS
WEST OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE
WEAK SHORT WAVE BREAKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE.

THE DRY WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE SLOW RIDGING PROCESS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL...FROM CLOSE TO 80 EAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S WEST. A STEADY
BUT TOLERABLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK.

A WAVE APPROACHING FOR THE WEEKEND IS SHOWN ON THE EC AND IN A
SLOWER AND MORE DIGGING FASHION ON THE GEM. THE GFS WASHES THIS ONE
OUT IN FAVOR OF ITS TENDENCY OF LATE TO PRODUCE STRONG UPPER
RIDGING. RECENT HISTORY SUGGESTS FAVORING THE EC AND THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE DOES THIS...SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THE WARMING TREND WILL SLOW DOWN FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT CONTINUE ON LOWS AS THE AIR BECOMES MORE HUMID.
STILL NO 90 PLUS READINGS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

EC SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO JOIN THE GFS RIDGE BUILDING AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND SUGGESTING SOME HONEST MIDSUMMER HEAT THE NEXT
WEEK. WE WILL SEE IF THIS TREND SUSTAINS ITSELF OR REVERSES DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET IN SOUTHEAST SD SOUTH OF I-90...NORTHWEST IA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHRA IN SUX...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT ADD ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...





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