Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 192012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
312 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Light rain continues to fall across portions of the Tri-State area
this afternoon. Amounts in general have been very light, due to a
combination of intruding dry air and weak lift. This light
precipitation will slowly dissipate as it drifts southeast into the
evening hours. Further west, already seeing developing showers and
thunderstorms east of the Black Hills on a weak inverted sfc trough.
This activity is expected to remain to the west of the CWA into this
evening, before drifting into the Missouri River valley towards and
after midnight as a weak MCV.

Overnight: Stratus begins a weak frontal boundary will gradually
dissipate this evening, with thinning mid-upr clouds allowing for
temperatures to falling into the 30s in many areas. Stratus may try
to rebuild in the MO River Valley after midnight.

Thursday: Lingering morning sprinkles and cloud cover will give way,
albeit slowly, to sunshine by the afternoon. With 850mb ridge axis
remaining across or west of the CWA in the day, clouds should remain
rather abundant.  The resultant temperatures will only climb into
the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Relatively mild pattern across the area Friday through the weekend
as ridge in the upper level jet buckles north and low level
southerly flow develops across the plains. A series of weak
disturbances are expected to work through the region throughout the
weekend resulting in wind shifts. Have raised temperatures on
Saturday over blend with mild pattern.

More robust southerly flow develops Sunday night into Monday. An
upper trough is expected to dig into the Pacific NW resulting in
southwest flow aloft across the plains.  There are several short
waves embedded in the flow, resulting in periodic precipitation
chances Monday night through Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Areas of stratus continue to develop just on the northern edges of
the CWA this afternoon behind an advancing cold front. Further
south, very light rain/sprinkles persist in areas south of I-90.

Through the upcoming 12 hours, will include a brief period of MVFR
ceilings at HON through the evening, with VFR conditions at the
other main TAF locations. Models are again struggling with
redevelopment of stratus overnight, primarily over the Missouri
River valley. While confidence is on the lower end, feel the
highest risk of lower end stratus will occur away from the TAF
sites, with general VFR ceilings elsewhere into Thursday morning.




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