Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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580
FXUS63 KFSD 240905
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
405 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

As expected winds have picked up during the late night hours with a
few spots in northwestern IA already reaching Advisory criteria.
Elected to expand the Wind Advisory a few counties westward with
soundings suggesting the possibility of gusts to near 40 mph, and to
be consistent with surrounding offices. Will probably have the
highest winds earlier in the day, before the gradient begins to
slacken and mixed layer winds diminish somewhat in the afternoon.
Otherwise, it will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

Winds will finally taper down by this evening with a few mid clouds
streaming across the region with midlevel warm air advection. Lows
look to be upper 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

A nice warm up in store on Wednesday with a west/southwesterly low
level flow. Winds will be relatively light with highs lower 60s from
southwestern MN to lower 70s over south central SD. On Wednesday
night more upper level energy dives southward into the Northern
Plains as a surface trough pushes through our area. With strong cold
air advection winds will increase late Wednesday and Thursday, and
may be looking at Advisory criteria one again for at least portions
of the area. Super blend wind speeds were once again too low, so
blended closer to CONMOS. Much cooler with highs mainly lower to mid
50s.

Things become more interesting on Thursday night into Friday as the
upper trough slides across the region. Unfortunately there was an
issue with the 00Z cycle of the ECMWF, so only had the 12Z run to
look at. Nevertheless, all models are now in pretty good agreement
on bringing light precipitation to at least the eastern two thirds
of our CWA later on Thursday night and Friday. Thermal profiles will
support snow at that point with progged 850 mb temperatures ranging
from -5 to -10 C. The better chances for precipitation look to be
over southwestern MN, where a half to 1 inch of snow could
accumulate, with lows on Thursday night in the 20s.

The remainder of the extended period looks to be characterized by
below normal temperatures with the region remaining under a
northerly upper level flow as the trough deepens and slowly pushes
into the eastern portions of the Nation. Precipitation chances are
minimal through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Stratus working south
with secondary front, but is expected to be mainly east of the TAF
sites in southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Gusty northwest
winds expected through sunset Tuesday night.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for SDZ067-070-071.

MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BT



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