Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 261119
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
519 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL NOT COMBAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
GRIPPING THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
IMPROVE...BRUTAL WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW WILL ALSO BE
SLOW TO WARM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWER BRULE AREA OF SD STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH
SNOWPACK NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL 5
BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO
THE -20 TO -30 RANGE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WARMING THERMAL PROFILES WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

THE WARMING WILL BE MORE APPARENT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...RUNNING AROUND 1
INCH THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER CORRIDOR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MIXING WILL STILL MAKE IT UP INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM LAGGING A BIT IN
TIMING AND KEEPING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. IN ANY
EVENT...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOCALES
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET AGL MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BROKEN COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS...SO WILL LEAVE SCATTERED MENTION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-065>071.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...


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