Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFSD 131706
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

LINGERING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG SOUTHEAST CORNER OF AREA...IF
ANY...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. OBVIOUSLY SO
WILL THE FROST THREAT. THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH ALLOWS A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
AND GET CLOSE TO BREEZY LEVELS FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WHILE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL RECOVER WITH THE
HEATING AND WARMING ONLY TO AROUND 60 EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST.

TONIGHT WILL BRING MUCH THE SAME STORY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO PASS OVER THE AREA...BUT SKIES OVERALL WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HOWEVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPROACHED FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL HOLD UP A LITTLE AND BEGIN TO SWING
AROUND MORE TO SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY...REMAINING SOUTHERLY FAR
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS A DECENT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THUS WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS...PROBABLY MAKING IT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOW LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH LACKING...AND SO THINK IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES OR MAYBE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS THINKING MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
STAY GENERALLY DRY. MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO IMPROVE SOME BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS STILL
PRESENT...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE. HIGHEST CHANCE
STILL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AND
MAY END UP WITH NOT MUCH AT ALL...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN SOME DECENT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...HIGH SHOULD STILL MANAGE MID 60S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.

EARLY TO MID WEEK LOOKS PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA WITH RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WILL SEE
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP...RESULTING IN A SLOW WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WITH 70S
BECOMING MORE COMMON BY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. PROBABLY WILL TAKE
UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY BEFORE HIGHS GET BACK TO AVERAGE LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH 40S COMMON...AND EVEN SOME
30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. LOWS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND
AFTER THIS THROUGH THE WEEK. SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO
START THE WEEK...BUT EXPECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THUS STRATUS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER IN
THE WEEK...WHICH COULD END UP IMPACTING HOW WARM WE GET...SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH. STILL A WAYS OUT SO SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT
MODELS SUGGESTING OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SOMETIME
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES BACK INTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.